Underwood: Buyer Leverage and Price Divergence in Markham's Resale Market

Key facts and reporting periods

Market summary

Markham's resale market entered 2026 with buyer leverage, as indicated by a 41% sales-to-new-listings ratio and 4.49 months of inventory in February. The city also displayed a stark price split, with detached home medians nearly triple those of condo apartments, setting a complex backdrop for buyers in Underwood.

Central finding

Markham's resale market in February 2026 exhibited buyer-leaning conditions with a 41% sales-to-new-listings ratio and 4.49 months of inventory, alongside a significant price divergence between detached homes and condo apartments. This broader city-level dynamic provides context for Underwood, though no target-scoped transaction data confirms local outcomes. Sources: [Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast] [New Pre Construction Homes in Markham, Ontario (2026) | Condomonk]

How the numbers connect

The resale market in Markham shows a wide price gap between detached homes and condo apartments, while rental costs for 2-bedroom condos remain elevated. Calculation: Median detached sale price ($1,440,944) minus median condo apartment sale price ($555,000) equals $885,944. Average asking rent for 2-bedroom condos is $2,500 to $2,850 per month. Definitions: Markham city scope, February 2026 observation period. Median sale price is the midpoint of all resale transactions; average asking rent is a range for 2-bedroom condo apartments in the Highway 7 corridor area. Limit: The spread compares resale transaction medians with rental asking estimates from different property types and scopes. It does not establish a target-locality price or rent outcome for Underwood. Sources: [Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast]

Buyer Leverage Amidst Price Divergence in Markham

In February 2026, Markham's resale market exhibited clear buyer-leaning conditions, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 41% and 4.49 months of inventory. This environment allowed buyers greater negotiating power, as evidenced by an average of 43 days on market. The median sale price across all property types stood at $1,042,500, but significant variance existed between segments: detached homes had a median price of $1,440,944, while condo apartments were priced at a median of $555,000. This $885,944 spread highlights the distinct affordability challenges and opportunities within the city's housing stock.

These city-level metrics do not directly measure conditions in Underwood, but they provide a critical framework for understanding the broader market forces at play. Buyers in Underwood can infer that similar leverage may exist, particularly in the condo segment where entry prices are lower. However, the tightening of GTA conditions reported by TRREB in July 2026, characterized by a substantial decline in new listings, suggests that this buyer advantage may be eroding. Sellers in Underwood should consider this shifting dynamic when setting expectations, as the window for easy negotiations may be narrowing. Sources: [Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast] [New Pre Construction Homes in Markham, Ontario (2026) | Condomonk] [Search Results for “market watch” – TRREB]

Mortgage Renewals and Affordability Pressures

A significant financing headwind is emerging as the last of the pandemic-era five-year fixed-rate mortgages come up for renewal. According to the Bank of Canada, approximately 12% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages are affected, with borrowers facing an average 15% increase in monthly payments. This renewal wave is expected to pressure household budgets and potentially dampen demand for higher-priced homes. While national mortgage delinquency rates remain low at 0.24%, the cumulative effect of these payment increases could reduce borrowing capacity for both existing owners looking to upgrade and new entrants to the market.

This financing mechanism operates at a national scale, but its impact is felt locally through changes in buyer behavior and price sensitivity. In Markham, where average home prices exceed $1 million, even modest reductions in borrowing power can significantly narrow the pool of qualified buyers. Buyers may delay purchases or seek more affordable options, while sellers might need to adjust pricing to attract cash-rich or highly leveraged investors who are less sensitive to rate changes. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News] [New Pre Construction Homes in Markham, Ontario (2026) | Condomonk]

Housing Completions and Rental Market Dynamics

Markham's housing supply is evolving rapidly, with substantial condo completions along the Highway 7 corridor adding inventory throughout 2024 and 2025. This influx of new units has contributed to a more balanced rental market, where landlords targeting family renters with 3-bedroom townhouses report more stable tenancy compared to single-bedroom condo investors facing higher churn. Average asking rents for 2-bedroom condos in the region range from $2,500 to $2,850 per month as of early 2026, reflecting the cost basis for renting versus buying in a market with diverse housing options.

The composition of new housing deliveries plays a crucial role in shaping future market conditions. As more multi-unit residential projects reach completion, the increased supply can help moderate price growth and improve affordability for first-time buyers and renters alike. For Underwood, the proximity to these development corridors suggests that local housing stock may become more diverse over time. The broader trend indicates a shift towards higher-density living, which could influence long-term demand patterns and property values in the neighborhood. Sources: [Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast] [New Pre Construction Homes in Markham, Ontario (2026) | Condomonk]

The strongest counter-case

TRREB reports that GTA resale housing market conditions tightened in July 2026 compared to the same month in 2025, with new listings declining substantially. This suggests that the buyer-leaning conditions observed in early 2026 may have shifted toward balance or seller leverage by mid-year, complicating any static interpretation of the February data. Sources: [Search Results for “market watch” – TRREB]

Living here

Underwood contains 70 mapped amenity points, including 4 schools (Town Centre Montessori Schools, Town Centre Private High School, Milliken Mills High School, Trillium School), 2 parks (Highgate Park, Longmeadow Park), 59 transit stops, 2 childcare facilities, 1 grocery store (Sunfood Supermarket), and 2 recreation centers (CAN Sports Center).

Sources: [Town Centre Montessori Schools]

The early signal

The number of projected housing completions and the status of pre-construction projects in Markham, particularly along the Highway 7 corridor. How it reaches the market: New completions increase the active listing pool, which can suppress prices if demand does not keep pace. Conversely, a lack of new supply can tighten the market and support price growth. The timing of these deliveries relative to mortgage renewal waves determines whether the added inventory absorbs demand or creates excess supply. Typical lead time: Months to years, depending on project phase and approval timelines. Sources: [Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast] [New Pre Construction Homes in Markham, Ontario (2026) | Condomonk]

Next 3 months, through December 2026

Prices: flat. Flat to slightly falling prices in Markham, not a measured Underwood result. Why: February 2026 data shows a 41% SNLR and 4.49 months of inventory in Markham, indicating buyer leverage. However, TRREB notes tightening conditions in July 2026, suggesting potential stabilization. The absence of target-scope data means this is an inferred scenario for Underwood based on city trends. Buyers: wait. Waiting allows buyers to monitor if the tightening trend continues, potentially leading to better negotiation opportunities or lower prices if inventory remains high. Sellers: either way. Sellers should price competitively given the buyer-leaning environment, but the tightening trend suggests some flexibility may return soon. Watch: A sustained increase in the sales-to-new-listings ratio above 50% or a decrease in months of inventory below 3 would indicate a shift to a balanced or seller's market. Confidence: low. Sources: [Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast] [Search Results for “market watch” – TRREB]

Next 6 months, through March 2027

Prices: falling. Falling prices in Markham due to mortgage renewal pressures and increased supply, not a measured Underwood result. Why: The mortgage renewal wave, affecting 12% of outstanding mortgages with a 15% payment increase, will likely dampen demand over the next six months. Combined with ongoing housing completions, this could maintain buyer leverage in Markham. Underwood's specific response is unmeasured but likely tracks city trends. Buyers: buy now. Acting now allows buyers to capitalize on continued buyer leverage before potential rate cuts or demand surges reduce negotiating power. Sellers: wait. Waiting may allow sellers to benefit from potential rate cuts or demand recovery, improving their pricing position. Watch: A significant decline in mortgage delinquency rates or a faster-than-expected absorption of new inventory would suggest stronger demand resilience. Confidence: moderate. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News] [Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast]

Next 12 months, through September 2027

Prices: rising. Rising prices in Markham due to long-term demand growth and infrastructure investment, not a measured Underwood result. Why: Long-term trends show a decline in homeownership rates in the Toronto CMA and a persistent national housing supply gap. These structural factors, combined with federal infrastructure funding, suggest a gradual normalization of the market in Markham. Underwood's trajectory is inferred from these broader dynamics. Buyers: either way. Buyers can act either now or wait, as the long-term outlook suggests moderate price stability with potential for slight appreciation driven by infrastructure improvements. Sellers: list now. Selling now allows sellers to capture value before potential market saturation from new completions, securing a favorable price point. Watch: A significant increase in housing starts or a change in federal housing policy that accelerates supply could alter the long-term price trajectory. Confidence: low. Sources: [Greater Toronto Area Real Estate Market Ranks #2 Among Canada’s Top-Performing Markets - REMAX Canada] [Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC]

Assumptions: Mortgage renewal pressures will continue to affect borrower capacity over the next year; No major changes to interest rates or government housing policies occur within the forecast windows; Housing completions in Markham proceed according to current projections. What would reverse this: A sudden drop in interest rates or a surge in immigration-driven demand could reverse the buyer-leaning conditions, leading to rapid price appreciation and reduced inventory in Markham. Sources: [Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast] [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News] [Greater Toronto Area Real Estate Market Ranks #2 Among Canada’s Top-Performing Markets - REMAX Canada] [Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC]