Berczy Glen: Markham's Buyer Leverage Meets a National Renewal Wave

Key facts and reporting periods

Market summary

Markham's resale market shows buyer leverage with a 41% sales-to-new-listings ratio in February 2026, while national mortgage renewals face a 15% payment increase. These city and national figures are not measured at the Berczy Glen level.

Central finding

The strongest supported finding is that Markham's resale market entered 2026 with buyer leverage, evidenced by a 41% sales-to-new-listings ratio and 4.49 months of inventory in February 2026. This local condition contrasts with a national financing headwind where pandemic-era mortgage renewals face an average 15% payment increase over the next year. Sources: [Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast] [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News]

Markham Resale Market Shows Buyer Leverage Amidst Price Softening

In February 2026, Markham recorded 176 resale transactions with a median sale price of $1,042,500, indicating a market with significant buyer leverage. The sales-to-new-listings ratio stood at 41%, and inventory reached 4.49 months, both metrics associated with downward price pressure and increased negotiating power for buyers. This local condition is distinct from the broader provincial trend, where the Ontario MLS HPI composite benchmark price fell 3.6% year-over-year to $745,400 in August 2026, suggesting that while Markham has more inventory, prices across the province are still adjusting to higher interest rates.

The contrast between Markham's buyer-leaning environment and the national context is important for residents in Berczy Glen. While the city-level data does not measure Berczy Glen specifically, it provides a framework for understanding the broader market forces at play. Buyers in the area may find similar leverage if local conditions mirror the city-wide trends, but sellers should be aware that the national price softening could limit how much they can expect to gain from any local appreciation. The key takeaway is that the current market favors those looking to buy, but the window for this advantage may narrow as national economic pressures intensify. Sources: [Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast] [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics]

National Mortgage Renewals Face Significant Payment Increases

Over the next year, approximately 12% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages will come up for renewal, representing the last of the five-year fixed-rate loans taken out during the pandemic. Borrowers in this group can expect their monthly payments to increase by an average of 15%, according to the Bank of Canada. This significant jump in costs could reduce household disposable income and borrowing capacity, creating direct pressure on affordability and potentially dampening demand for new home purchases. The mechanism is straightforward: higher payments mean less money available for other expenses, which can slow down the overall housing market.

For residents in Berczy Glen, this national trend is a critical factor to consider when planning a move. While the local market in Markham currently offers buyer leverage, the impending wave of mortgage renewals could change the dynamics quickly. If many homeowners in the area face similar payment increases, some may choose to stay put rather than sell, reducing the number of listings and potentially tightening the market again. Conversely, others may need to downsize or move to more affordable areas, increasing supply in certain segments. The key is to monitor how these national financing conditions translate into local behavior, as they could either reinforce or reverse the current buyer-friendly environment. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News] [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca]

Rental Supply Growth and Housing Composition Shifts

Markham's rental supply increased substantially through 2024–25 as condo completions along Highway 7 added inventory, with average asking rents for 2-bedroom condos estimated at $2,500-$2,850 per month in early 2026. This growth in rental options provides an alternative for those who may find buying unaffordable due to the high purchase prices and rising mortgage payments. The shift toward more rental units also reflects a broader trend in the GTA, where the population exceeded 7.1 million in 2024, adding over 500,000 new residents between 2022 and 2024. This demographic pressure continues to drive demand for both rental and ownership housing, but the increased supply of rentals may help stabilize the market by providing more options for different income levels.

The composition of housing in Markham is also changing, with a notable variance between property types. In February 2026, detached homes had a median price of $1,440,944, while condo apartments were significantly more affordable at $555,000. This gap highlights the challenge for first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade, as the cost of entry into the ownership market remains high. For residents in Berczy Glen, this means that while there are more rental options available, the path to homeownership may require careful financial planning and timing. The key is to understand how these shifts in housing composition and rental supply interact with the broader market conditions to create opportunities or challenges for different types of buyers and sellers. Sources: [Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast] [Greater Toronto Area Real Estate Market Ranks #2 Among Canada’s Top-Performing Markets - REMAX Canada]

The strongest counter-case

A competing explanation is that the buyer leverage in Markham is temporary and driven by seasonal listing patterns rather than structural demand shifts. Additionally, the national 15% payment increase could rapidly erode buyer purchasing power if rates rise further, potentially reversing the local buyer advantage. The Ontario MLS HPI composite benchmark price decline of 3.6% year-over-year in August 2026 also suggests broader price softening that could impact Markham's trajectory. Sources: [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics] [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News]

Living here

City-level amenities include Bur Oak Secondary School, Little Rouge Public School, St. Julia Billiart Catholic Elementary School, McKay Art Centre Park, Cornell Community Dog Park, Elgin Mills Road / Victoria Square Boulevard transit stop, Raymerville Drive / Quarry Stone Drive transit stop, Blooming Lives Montessori, Pris-T-giS Montessori School, Michael Angelo's grocery store, Longo's grocery store, and Crosby Memorial Community Centre.

Sources: [Bur Oak Secondary School]

The early signal

Monitor the following measure: Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) in Markham. How it reaches the market: The SNLR measures the balance between sales and new listings, directly influencing price momentum and negotiation leverage. A lower SNLR indicates more inventory relative to demand, favoring buyers and potentially leading to price declines or slower sales. As this ratio changes, it signals shifts in market conditions that affect both buyers and sellers. Typical lead time: The SNLR typically moves before headline price series, providing an early warning of market direction. Changes in the SNLR can indicate upcoming shifts in price trends and inventory levels, allowing agents and residents to anticipate market movements. Sources: [Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast]

Next 3 months, Through December 2026

Prices: flat. Prices in Markham are expected to remain flat, with a range of -2% to +2%. This applies to the city-wide market, not a measured Berczy Glen result. Why: The current buyer leverage in Markham, evidenced by a 41% SNLR and 4.49 months of inventory in February 2026, suggests stable prices. However, the national 15% mortgage payment increase could introduce volatility. The Ontario MLS HPI composite benchmark price decline of 3.6% year-over-year in August 2026 indicates broader price softening, which may temper any local appreciation. Buyers: buy now. Buyers can take advantage of the current buyer leverage and stable prices. Acting now allows them to secure properties before potential increases in competition or prices as the market adjusts to national financing pressures. Sellers: wait. Sellers may benefit from waiting until the market stabilizes after the initial impact of mortgage renewals. Selling too soon could result in lower prices due to reduced buyer purchasing power and increased inventory. Watch: A significant drop in the SNLR below 35% or a sharp increase in new listings would indicate a shift toward a stronger seller's market, overturning the flat price expectation. Confidence: moderate. Sources: [Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast] [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News] [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics]

Next 6 months, Through March 2027

Prices: falling. Prices in Markham are expected to fall slightly, with a range of -3% to -1%. This applies to the city-wide market, not a measured Berczy Glen result. Why: The cumulative effect of the 15% mortgage payment increase on 12% of outstanding mortgages could reduce buyer demand, leading to price declines. The national trend of price softening, as seen in the Ontario MLS HPI composite benchmark price decline, supports this outlook. However, the local buyer leverage may provide some cushion against sharp drops. Buyers: wait. Waiting allows buyers to benefit from potential price declines as the market adjusts to higher mortgage payments. Patience could lead to better deals and more negotiating power. Sellers: list now. Sellers should act now to avoid the anticipated price declines. Selling before the full impact of mortgage renewals hits the market can help secure a better price. Watch: A sustained increase in the SNLR above 50% or a significant reduction in new listings would indicate a shift toward a stronger seller's market, overturning the falling price expectation. Confidence: low. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News] [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics]

Next 12 months, Through September 2027

Prices: rising. Prices in Markham are expected to rise modestly, with a range of +1% to +3%. This applies to the city-wide market, not a measured Berczy Glen result. Why: By mid-2027, the initial shock of mortgage renewals may have passed, and the market could stabilize. The long-term demand driven by population growth in the GTA, with over 500,000 new residents added between 2022 and 2024, supports a gradual price recovery. However, the pace of recovery depends on how well the market absorbs the higher financing costs. Buyers: either way. Buyers can choose to act now or wait, depending on their individual circumstances. If they need to move soon, acting now is reasonable. If they can wait, they might benefit from further stabilization or slight declines before the eventual rise. Sellers: either way. Sellers can also choose to act now or wait. If they need to sell soon, acting now is advisable. If they can wait, they might benefit from the anticipated price recovery. Watch: A significant increase in interest rates or a major economic downturn would indicate a continued or renewed decline in prices, overturning the rising price expectation. Confidence: low. Sources: [Greater Toronto Area Real Estate Market Ranks #2 Among Canada’s Top-Performing Markets - REMAX Canada] [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News]

Assumptions: The national 15% mortgage payment increase will affect a significant portion of Markham's homeowner base; The local buyer leverage in Markham will persist for the short term but may weaken as national financing pressures intensify; Population growth in the GTA will continue to drive long-term housing demand. What would reverse this: If interest rates rise significantly or a major economic downturn occurs, the market could experience a sharper and more prolonged decline in prices, overturning the expected recovery. Additionally, if the local buyer leverage disappears quickly due to a surge in new listings or a drop in sales, the market could shift back to a seller's environment sooner than anticipated. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News] [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics] [Greater Toronto Area Real Estate Market Ranks #2 Among Canada’s Top-Performing Markets - REMAX Canada]