Cachet: Markham's Buyer Leverage Meets National Renewal Pressure

Key facts and reporting periods

Market summary

Markham's resale market shows buyer leverage with a 41% sales-to-new-listings ratio in February 2026, while national mortgage renewals face a 15% payment increase. These city and national figures are not measured at the Cachet neighbourhood level.

Central finding

Markham's resale market exhibits buyer leverage in early 2026, with a 41% sales-to-new-listings ratio and 4.49 months of inventory in February 2026. This local condition contrasts with national financing pressure from pandemic-era mortgage renewals, which carry an average 15% payment increase. The divergence suggests that while broader affordability constraints exist, local supply levels currently favor buyers in Markham. Sources: [Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast] [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News]

Markham Resale Market Shows Buyer Leverage in Early 2026

In February 2026, Markham recorded 176 resale transactions with a median sale price of $1,042,500. The market exhibited buyer-leaning conditions, evidenced by a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 41% and 4.49 months of inventory. These metrics indicate that supply outpaced demand during this period, providing buyers with more options and negotiating power compared to seller-favorable markets.

This buyer leverage in Markham stands in contrast to broader regional trends. While the Greater Toronto Area saw aggregate home prices decline 4.6% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026, Markham's specific inventory levels suggest a localized softening. Sources: [Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast] [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News]

National Mortgage Renewals Create Affordability Headwinds

Nationally, borrowers renewing pandemic-era five-year fixed-rate mortgages face an average 15% increase in monthly payments over the next year. This affects approximately 12% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages. Despite this pressure, national mortgage delinquency rates remain low at 0.24%, suggesting that most borrowers have successfully refinanced or absorbed higher costs without defaulting.

The transmission of this national financing pressure to Markham is indirect but significant. As fixed mortgage rates rise due to climbing bond yields, borrowing capacity for new buyers may decrease, potentially dampening demand. The mechanism operates through reduced household disposable income and stricter qualification thresholds, which could gradually shift the balance from buyer to seller if sustained. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News] [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca]

Rental Supply Growth Influences Housing Composition

Markham's rental supply increased substantially through 2024–25 as condo completions along Highway 7 added inventory. Average asking rents for two-bedroom condos were estimated at $2,500–$2,850 per month in early 2026. This growth in rental stock provides an alternative for those who cannot afford homeownership, potentially reducing immediate purchase demand in the resale market.

The composition of new housing deliveries also plays a role in market dynamics. In the Greater Toronto Area, student housing completions are projected to reach a record in 2026, with 2,734 beds representing 43% of the provincial total. While this specific figure applies to the region rather than Markham alone, it highlights the broader trend of multi-unit development. For Cachet, the presence of such infrastructure supports a diverse housing mix, though direct impact on local property values remains unmeasured in the supplied evidence. Sources: [Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast] [Ontario Student Housing Deliveries Set to Reach Record in 2026 | Urbanation]

The strongest counter-case

The strongest counterforce is the national mortgage renewal wave, where approximately 12% of outstanding mortgages face an average 15% payment increase over the next year. Additionally, Ontario home sales in August 2026 were 22.6% below the 10-year average, indicating significant demand contraction province-wide. These factors could erode the buyer leverage observed in Markham if local demand slows to match provincial trends. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News] [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics]

Living here

Cachet contains 42 mapped amenities, including 7 parks (Joseph Reid Parkette, Gordon Stollery Park, Arthur Stollery Common, Elanor Casely Park, Macrill Crescent Pond, Calvert Park), 31 transit stops (Warden Avenue / Major Mackenzie Drive, Major Mackenzie Drive / Glenbourne Drive), 1 school (Royal Cachet Montessori School), and 3 recreation facilities (Angus Glen Community Centre & Library).

Sources: [Royal Cachet Montessori School]

The early signal

Monitor the following measure: Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) in Markham. How it reaches the market: A declining SNLR indicates increasing inventory relative to sales, which typically precedes downward pressure on prices and increased negotiation leverage for buyers. In Markham, the drop to 41% in February 2026 signals a shift toward buyer-favorable conditions before any significant price adjustment occurs. Typical lead time: 1-3 months ahead of price changes. Sources: [Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast]

Next 3 months, through December 2026

Prices: flat. 0-2% range for Markham resale properties; not a measured Cachet result Why: Markham's 41% SNLR and 4.49 months of inventory in February 2026 suggest stable but slightly softening conditions. National mortgage renewal pressures may limit upside, while local supply prevents sharp declines. Buyers: buy now. Buyers benefit from current inventory levels and negotiating power in Markham, allowing for better terms and potential discounts. Sellers: wait. Sellers may face longer days on market and lower offers due to buyer leverage; waiting for seasonal demand shifts could improve outcomes. Watch: A rise in SNLR above 50% or a drop in inventory below 3 months would signal a return to seller-favorable conditions. Confidence: moderate. Sources: [Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast]

Next 6 months, through March 2027

Prices: falling. -2% to -4% range for Markham resale properties; not a measured Cachet result Why: If national mortgage renewal pressures continue to reduce borrowing capacity, Markham's buyer leverage could intensify, leading to modest price declines. Provincial sales volumes being 22.6% below the 10-year average support this downward bias. Buyers: buy now. Anticipated price softening provides an opportunity for buyers to secure better value, especially in the mid-range segments. Sellers: wait. Sellers should consider delaying listings until spring 2027 when seasonal demand may offset some of the current buyer leverage. Watch: Stabilization of mortgage rates or a surge in new listings that exceeds absorption rates would reinforce the falling price direction. Confidence: low. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News] [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics]

Next 12 months, through September 2027

Prices: flat. -1% to +1% range for Markham resale properties; not a measured Cachet result Why: By late 2027, the initial shock of mortgage renewals may have been absorbed, and new housing completions could balance supply and demand. The long-term population growth in the Toronto CMA supports underlying demand, preventing sustained declines. Buyers: either way. Market conditions are expected to normalize, making timing less critical for buyers focused on long-term investment. Sellers: either way. Sellers can expect a more balanced market, with neither extreme buyer nor seller leverage, allowing for standard negotiation practices. Watch: Significant changes in interest rates or unexpected economic shocks could alter this trajectory, requiring reassessment of both buyer and seller strategies. Confidence: low. Sources: [Greater Toronto Area Real Estate Market Ranks #2 Among Canada’s Top-Performing Markets - REMAX Canada] [Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC]

Assumptions: Mortgage rates remain relatively stable over the next 12 months; No major economic shocks occur that significantly impact employment or consumer confidence; New housing completions in Markham continue at current pace. What would reverse this: A sudden increase in interest rates or a recessionary downturn could accelerate price declines beyond the projected ranges, particularly affecting higher-priced segments in Markham. Sources: [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca] [CREA | REALTOR® Recommendations]