Quebec City's easing is clearer in bidding than in the median price

The inventory turn has lasted beyond spring

April's release recorded a second month of rising active listings after 25 consecutive declines. July brought the fifth increase: 1,993 listings, 24% more than a year earlier, but still about half the historical average for that month. The April and July counts should not be read as a seasonally adjusted sequence. The durable signal is the run of same-month year-over-year increases, against a still unusually small stock. [Quebec City April 2026 release] [Quebec City July 2026 release]

Bidding intensity moved more decisively. APCIQ reports that 20% of single-family homes sold at least 5% above their initial asking price in July, compared with half in March. That does not mean the other sales involved no competition, and asking-price strategy can change the measure. It does show that the most aggressive bidding outcome became less common while the supply recovery persisted. [Quebec City July 2026 release] [Quebec City April 2026 release]

The South Shore is changing the regional price mix

In April, sales fell across all three major sectors, including a 10% decline on the South Shore. In July, South Shore sales rose 11%, while the Quebec City agglomeration fell 6% and the Northern Periphery fell 17%. APCIQ says the greater share of generally more affordable South Shore transactions helped hold regional house median-price growth to 1%, at $460,000. A slower CMA median therefore contains both a bargaining story and a geography story. It does not prove that a comparable house in Quebec City appreciated by just 1%. [Quebec City April 2026 release] [Quebec City July 2026 release]

A local cushion faces a wider employment risk

The July release describes a supportive local employment situation. The provincial Q2 report, meanwhile, identifies weaker employment among 25-to-54-year-olds and slower population growth as constraints on demand. Those accounts cover different geographies and can coexist. The Bank of Canada's September hold at 2.25%, alongside higher long-term yields since July, adds another reason to separate the local market's resilience from assumptions about cheaper mortgage financing. Scarce listings can protect sellers while fewer buyers are willing or able to make a large overbid. [Quebec City July 2026 release] [Quebec provincial Q2 context] [Bank of Canada September decision]

Forecast: fewer extreme bids, without a buyer market

Through March 2027, the base-case forecast is that the share of houses selling at least 5% over initial asking will remain below the March 2026 level, even if local house medians keep rising. This assumes that the inventory recovery continues and local employment remains resilient. Two successive monthly readings with renewed listing declines and a return toward March's bidding share would overturn it. A sharp deterioration in employment would instead imply a broader correction. The forecast concerns the intensity of competition, not a target return on any individual house. [Quebec City April 2026 release] [Quebec City July 2026 release] [Quebec provincial Q2 context] [Bank of Canada September decision]