{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "kind": "city-market-research-evidence",
  "publication": {
    "id": "city-qc-85dc7bf1-ea25-415c-8083-3813363664c0-72ccaf3f3093",
    "batch": "edition-2026-09-07",
    "publicPath": "/markets/qc/qc-quebec-city-market-outlook-2026-09-07",
    "sourceArticleSha256": "72ccaf3f3093d98ef921df33c2229255909a0fc4841ccdb479a1fac42ccb6650",
    "publishedAtUtc": "2026-09-08T01:38:04.954934Z",
    "editorialLanguageCheck": "passed"
  },
  "cityId": "85dc7bf1-ea25-415c-8083-3813363664c0",
  "city": "Quebec City",
  "province": "QC",
  "asOfUtc": "2026-09-07T16:00:00.1724277+00:00",
  "thesis": "Quebec City is giving buyers more time to think without yet giving them abundant choice. The archive shows that the clearest change is in the intensity of bidding and the location of sales, which makes the latest median-price headline an incomplete guide.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "key": "april",
      "name": "Quebec City April 2026 release",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/quebec-city-cma-visible-rise-in-listings-yet-shortages-continue-to-put-pressure-on-the-market/",
      "publisher": "Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers; CIEMCQ for the Q1 three-CMA release",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "April 2026, published May 6, 2026",
      "dateNote": "April 2026, published May 6, 2026; original publication date in the release body, distinct from retained capture 2026-09-03T05:37:03.5877698 UTC.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "f263999c-3516-4bfd-b3ea-81a71d624269"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Quebec City CMA section; provincial context separately scoped",
      "verification": "Entire relevant original-language source section read in retained raw text and the current primary release on September 7, 2026. Quarterly listing definition checked in APCIQ barometer."
    },
    {
      "key": "july",
      "name": "Quebec City July 2026 release",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/quebec-city-cma-the-markets-exceptional-performance-softens/",
      "publisher": "Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers; CIEMCQ for the Q1 three-CMA release",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "July 2026, published August 6, 2026",
      "dateNote": "July 2026, published August 6, 2026; original publication date in the release body, distinct from retained capture 2026-09-03T05:36:49.92185 UTC.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "abc3c19b-b31b-43fd-96e7-90699f4d81fe"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Quebec City CMA section; provincial context separately scoped",
      "verification": "Entire relevant original-language source section read in retained raw text and the current primary release on September 7, 2026. Quarterly listing definition checked in APCIQ barometer."
    },
    {
      "key": "q2",
      "name": "Quebec provincial Q2 context",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/quebecs-real-estate-market-gradually-rebalances-in-the-second-quarter/",
      "publisher": "Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers; CIEMCQ for the Q1 three-CMA release",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "Q2 2026, published July 14, 2026",
      "dateNote": "Q2 2026, published July 14, 2026; original publication date in the release body, distinct from retained capture 2026-09-03T05:36:58.3694575 UTC.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional",
        "provincial"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "7b0b434b-d5b5-4c6a-a67b-7c55f010cdde"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Quebec City CMA section; provincial context separately scoped",
      "verification": "Entire relevant original-language source section read in retained raw text and the current primary release on September 7, 2026. Quarterly listing definition checked in APCIQ barometer."
    },
    {
      "key": "boc",
      "name": "Bank of Canada September decision",
      "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/",
      "publisher": "Bank of Canada",
      "publicationDate": "2026-09-02",
      "observationPeriod": "September 2, 2026",
      "dateNote": "September 2 decision. Current primary source checked in shared national packet.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "national"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Overnight target and Financial conditions paragraphs"
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "c1-1",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "april",
        "july"
      ],
      "explanation": "Actual month-end listing counts, not quarterly averages. Explicitly avoids treating April-to-July seasonal decline as tightening."
    },
    {
      "id": "c1-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "july",
        "april"
      ],
      "explanation": "Threshold is 5% above initial asking, not any overbidding; denominator sold single-family homes, not all listings."
    },
    {
      "id": "c2-1",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "april",
        "july"
      ],
      "explanation": "South Shore is not equated to Levis city alone. Mixture explanation attributed to primary analyst and contrasted across retained months."
    },
    {
      "id": "c3-1",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "july",
        "q2",
        "boc"
      ],
      "explanation": "Source-attributed local and provincial labour assessments, no contradictory harmonized labour counts claimed; financing mechanism qualified."
    },
    {
      "id": "c4-1",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "section": 3,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "april",
        "july",
        "q2",
        "boc"
      ],
      "explanation": "Specific threshold, base period and subsequent observable checks, issued now not backdated."
    }
  ],
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "claimId": "c4-1",
      "horizon": "Through March 31, 2027",
      "assumptions": [
        "Inventory recovery continues",
        "Local employment remains resilient"
      ],
      "upside": "Competition intensifies again with declining listings.",
      "downside": "Local employment deteriorates and creates a broader correction.",
      "changeSignals": [
        "Share of sold houses at least5% above initial asking",
        "Two successive monthly listing declines with return toward March bidding share"
      ],
      "confidence": "moderate",
      "confidenceReason": "Persistent inventory and direct bidding measure support direction; asking strategy and unobserved buyer finances constrain precision."
    }
  ],
  "review": {
    "factual": true,
    "editorial": true,
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
    "articleSha256": "72ccaf3f3093d98ef921df33c2229255909a0fc4841ccdb479a1fac42ccb6650"
  },
  "insightReview": {
    "articleSha256": "72ccaf3f3093d98ef921df33c2229255909a0fc4841ccdb479a1fac42ccb6650",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
    "findings": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c1-1",
          "c2-1"
        ],
        "ordinaryInterpretation": "A 1% regional house median increase means all local prices have nearly stopped rising.",
        "additionalFinding": "The inventory recovery persists across retained releases while the geographic sales mix shifts toward the South Shore; the heavy-overbid share separately confirms easing competition.",
        "archiveContribution": "April records the earlier all-sector sales decline and beginning of supply recovery, allowing July to be read as a geographic redistribution within a persistent supply turn.",
        "localConsequence": "Quebec City appraisals need same-area comparables; buyers can watch bidding intensity without assuming abundant inventory.",
        "counterEvidence": "Stock is still far below normal; asking-price strategy and property mix affect both median and overbid measures.",
        "missingLinks": [
          "No fixed-composition price index or matched asking-price cohort."
        ],
        "observationIds": [
          "april-inventory",
          "july-inventory",
          "july-bidding",
          "april-south",
          "july-south"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "removedOrDemoted": [
      "Removed implication that 80% of July sales had no competing offers.",
      "Removed interpretation of 1% median growth as an unchanged-home appreciation index."
    ]
  },
  "definitionReview": {
    "articleSha256": "72ccaf3f3093d98ef921df33c2229255909a0fc4841ccdb479a1fac42ccb6650",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
    "checks": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "title",
          "description",
          "lead",
          "c1-1",
          "c1-2",
          "c2-1",
          "c3-1",
          "c4-1"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "april",
          "july",
          "q2",
          "boc"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Named city sections of the listed dated releases; provincial highlights and September 2 Bank decision",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "meaning": "Centris brokered residential sales in the explicitly named CMA. Quarterly active listings average month-end stocks; median prices reflect sold-property mix; days on market are means. Each change is year over year unless explicitly described otherwise.",
        "reason": "The inventory recovery persists across retained releases while the geographic sales mix shifts toward the South Shore; the heavy-overbid share separately confirms easing competition. Stock is still far below normal; asking-price strategy and property mix affect both median and overbid measures.",
        "period": "Dated periods identified separately in every comparison",
        "calculation": "Uses reported rates and qualitative cross-period joins; no compounding of year-over-year rates or conversion of medians to same-home appreciation."
      }
    ]
  },
  "datasetFindings": [
    {
      "reportFile": "analysis.json",
      "reportSha256": "76442f4ed031168fc1a4b70e591f8670740d05b495b2153a7754f12d3b993d65",
      "claimIds": [
        "c1-1",
        "c2-1"
      ],
      "archiveContribution": "April records the earlier all-sector sales decline and beginning of supply recovery, allowing July to be read as a geographic redistribution within a persistent supply turn."
    }
  ],
  "causalChains": [
    {
      "claimId": "c3-1",
      "sources": [
        "july",
        "q2",
        "boc"
      ],
      "mechanism": "Provincial employment weakness and bond-linked financing can reduce aggressive bidding while local employment and scarce stock support prices.",
      "localExposure": "Quebec City CMA financed home purchases, with separate South Shore and agglomeration dynamics.",
      "timeHorizon": "Late 2026 through March 2027",
      "counterEvidence": "Local employment resilience and persistent scarcity.",
      "forecastImplication": "Forecast bidding intensity rather than interpreting the regional median as a uniform property return."
    }
  ],
  "gaps": [
    "Monthly raw listing counts are seasonal; analysis uses same-month year-over-year directions.",
    "South Shore sector is broader than Levis municipality.",
    "Bidding threshold is not the frequency of all multiple-offer transactions."
  ],
  "retrievalCoverage": {
    "initialLocalPageLimit": 100,
    "hasMore": true,
    "statement": "Initial association-based candidates are bounded discovery. Selected original captures and complete named-source histories were inspected; unrelated geography and generated narrative claims were excluded."
  },
  "sharedPacketRefs": [
    "shared/checked-national-context.json"
  ]
}