Montreal's housing slowdown is spreading beyond downtown condos

The change now reaches houses

Montreal's condo slowdown was already visible in the spring. Single-family homes were still moving faster than a year earlier: the second-quarter average was 32 days, down three. July reversed that comparison, with houses taking 38 days, three more than in July 2025. Condo selling times were longer than a year earlier in both reports. The important development is the widening of the slowdown across property types. [Quebec and Montreal second-quarter resale results] [Montreal July resale results]

A quarterly average and a single month are different samples. This is an early warning, not proof that houses have entered a buyer's market. It does show why a seller who watched only condo news could miss a change relevant to a family home. A house can still command a rising price while taking more time and effort to sell. [Quebec and Montreal second-quarter resale results] [Montreal July resale results]

The centre is not where listings are growing fastest

July's condo inventory table shows a second shift. Ville-Marie had 2,303 listings, only 2% more than a year earlier; Ahuntsic had 211, up 48%, and Rosemont had 235, up 45%. The small growth rate in Ville-Marie does not signal scarcity: the association still classifies it as a surplus market. Farther from the centre, rapid growth starts from much smaller stocks. [Montreal July resale results]

Together, the retained reports describe an adjustment spreading in two directions: from condos toward houses, and from central condo districts toward other parts of the island. That is more useful than ranking neighbourhoods by one inventory percentage. A seller in Rosemont is facing a faster change in competing choice; a seller in Ville-Marie is facing a much larger established pool. Neither fact, alone, determines the discount on an individual unit. [Quebec and Montreal second-quarter resale results] [Montreal July resale results]

Why the next buyer may be harder to replace

The provincial association linked spring's loss of momentum to weaker employment among people aged 25 to 54 and slower population growth. Its July commentary identifies a demographic reversal in the Montreal region under tighter immigration rules. These are plausible pressures on the next cohort of renters and buyers, but the reports do not identify which households stopped shopping in each neighbourhood. A local employment recovery could offset part of that pressure. [Quebec and Montreal second-quarter resale results] [Montreal July resale results]

Financing is not providing a guaranteed counterweight. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2 and reported higher long-term yields since July. Fixed mortgage pricing can therefore remain restrictive even without another policy-rate increase. For an owner selling one property to buy another, a longer sale can also delay the next purchase, transmitting a condo slowdown further through the market. That last connection is a hypothesis, not a measured chain of linked transactions. [Bank of Canada September decision] [Quebec and Montreal second-quarter resale results] [Montreal July resale results]

Outlook through March 2027

The forecast is for the adjustment to broaden before it deepens into a uniform price decline. Through March 2027, house selling times are expected to remain above their year-earlier comparison more often than below it, while condo listing growth in Ahuntsic and Rosemont remains faster than in Ville-Marie. The assumptions are continued soft household formation and no substantial fall in fixed mortgage costs. A return to shorter year-over-year house selling times in two successive monthly reports, combined with slower listing growth outside the centre, would overturn this call. Strong local hiring or renewed migration would favour a quicker recovery; persistent financing pressure would favour a longer adjustment. [Quebec and Montreal second-quarter resale results] [Montreal July resale results] [Bank of Canada September decision]