{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "kind": "city-market-research-evidence",
  "publication": {
    "id": "city-qc-89a60cf0-17ca-4a05-b05d-785521eece93-699dac1fbed7",
    "batch": "edition-2026-09-07",
    "publicPath": "/markets/qc/qc-montreal-market-outlook-2026-09-07",
    "sourceArticleSha256": "699dac1fbed79a990fad523819de75a43b56e03d60525adafff84b76855ba960",
    "publishedAtUtc": "2026-09-08T01:38:04.954934Z",
    "editorialLanguageCheck": "passed"
  },
  "cityId": "89a60cf0-17ca-4a05-b05d-785521eece93",
  "city": "Montreal",
  "province": "QC",
  "asOfUtc": "2026-09-07T16:00:00.1724277+00:00",
  "thesis": "Montreal's market adjustment is changing location and property type. The archive points to a broader slowdown than the familiar story about downtown condos, even while sellers in several segments retain the upper hand.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "key": "q2",
      "name": "Quebec and Montreal second-quarter resale results",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/quebecs-real-estate-market-gradually-rebalances-in-the-second-quarter/",
      "publisher": "Association professionnelle des courtiers immobiliers du Quebec",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025",
      "dateNote": "Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025. Source checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:39:17.699614+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "regional",
        "provincial"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "7b0b434b-d5b5-4c6a-a67b-7c55f010cdde"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Montreal CMA, average days on market; provincial labour-market commentary",
      "verification": "Retained original read, source geography and period checked against current publisher text. Quoted analyst interpretations remain attributed and are not independent causal measurements."
    },
    {
      "key": "july",
      "name": "Montreal July resale results",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/montreal-cma-adjustment-period-continues-condominium-market-in-balance/",
      "publisher": "Association professionnelle des courtiers immobiliers du Quebec",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "July 2026 versus July 2025",
      "dateNote": "July 2026 versus July 2025. Source checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:39:17.699614+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "83f63ba6-a6b0-4d6a-8969-7c754b94d565"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Highlights, condo inventory table and geographic commentary",
      "verification": "Retained original read, source geography and period checked against current publisher text. Quoted analyst interpretations remain attributed and are not independent causal measurements."
    },
    {
      "key": "boc",
      "name": "Bank of Canada September decision",
      "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/",
      "publisher": "Bank of Canada",
      "publicationDate": "2026-09-02",
      "observationPeriod": "September 2, 2026 policy decision and financial conditions since July",
      "dateNote": "Published September 2, 2026. Primary source checked in shared national packet.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:11:03.389512+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "national"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Policy decision and Financial conditions paragraphs",
      "verification": "Parent agent checked primary release; child independently opened official release and policy search."
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "c1-1",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "q2",
        "july"
      ],
      "explanation": "Compares signs of year-over-year changes, not a seasonally adjusted six-day sequential deterioration. Mean times cover completed Centris sales in the CMA."
    },
    {
      "id": "c1-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "q2",
        "july"
      ],
      "explanation": "Separates sample composition, sale timing and negotiation conditions; no claim of a demonstrated leading indicator."
    },
    {
      "id": "c2-1",
      "kind": "observation",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "july"
      ],
      "explanation": "Exact area rows and surplus commentary checked. Counts are active listings, not new construction, sales, vacant homes or months of inventory."
    },
    {
      "id": "c2-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "q2",
        "july"
      ],
      "explanation": "Original cross-period and cross-geography synthesis; no numerical citywide or neighbourhood price prediction."
    },
    {
      "id": "c3-1",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "q2",
        "july"
      ],
      "explanation": "Attributed association interpretation; no independent city migration count or causal attribution to individual neighbourhoods."
    },
    {
      "id": "c3-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "boc",
        "q2",
        "july"
      ],
      "explanation": "National primary release checked; transaction-chain mechanism explicitly unmeasured."
    },
    {
      "id": "c4-1",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "section": 3,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "q2",
        "july",
        "boc"
      ],
      "explanation": "Two independently observable predictions, no guarantee or invented price target."
    }
  ],
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "claimId": "c4-1",
      "horizon": "September 7, 2026 through March 31, 2027",
      "assumptions": [
        "Soft household formation continues",
        "Fixed mortgage costs do not fall substantially"
      ],
      "upside": "A broader adjustment across houses and noncentral condos.",
      "downside": "Faster household formation or cheaper fixed-rate financing could reverse the expected adjustment.",
      "changeSignals": [
        "Two consecutive monthly house marketing-time reversals",
        "Ahuntsic and Rosemont listing growth versus Ville-Marie"
      ],
      "confidence": "low",
      "confidenceReason": "The direction has identifiable premises but no calibrated causal model or forecast accuracy record."
    }
  ],
  "review": {
    "factual": true,
    "editorial": true,
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:39:17.699614+00:00",
    "articleSha256": "699dac1fbed79a990fad523819de75a43b56e03d60525adafff84b76855ba960"
  },
  "insightReview": {
    "articleSha256": "699dac1fbed79a990fad523819de75a43b56e03d60525adafff84b76855ba960",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:39:17.699614+00:00",
    "findings": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c1-1",
          "c2-2"
        ],
        "observationIds": [
          "house-q2",
          "house-july",
          "outer-supply",
          "ahuntsic"
        ],
        "ordinaryInterpretation": "Montreal is experiencing a condo-specific correction centred on downtown.",
        "additionalFinding": "The retained Q2 and July comparisons show the sign of house marketing-time growth turning positive while condo inventory growth has moved away from central districts.",
        "archiveContribution": "Joining distinct dated resale releases and neighbourhood rows distinguishes the breadth and sequence of adjustment from its absolute severity.",
        "localConsequence": "House sellers and noncentral condo sellers have reasons to reassess competition that are missed by a downtown-only narrative.",
        "counterEvidence": "Single-family sellers retain an advantage and median prices are still rising; one monthly sign change can reverse.",
        "missingLinks": [
          "No seasonally adjusted monthly house marketing-time series or matched transaction chains."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "removedOrDemoted": [
      "Removed a claim of a six-day seasonally adjusted house slowdown between Q2 and July.",
      "Removed any implication that Ville-Marie's low listing growth means low inventory."
    ]
  },
  "definitionReview": {
    "articleSha256": "699dac1fbed79a990fad523819de75a43b56e03d60525adafff84b76855ba960",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:39:17.699614+00:00",
    "checks": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "title",
          "description",
          "lead",
          "c1-1",
          "c1-2",
          "c2-2",
          "c4-1"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "q2",
          "july"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Montreal mean days on market in Q2 and July",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "meaning": "Sold means, CMA boundaries; each change compared with the same period one year earlier.",
        "reason": "No direct subtraction of a quarterly mean from a monthly mean as a trend estimate."
      },
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c2-1",
          "c2-2",
          "c4-1"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "july"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Condo table: Ville-Marie, Ahuntsic and Rosemont",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "meaning": "Active listings and annual changes by named areas, not municipality-wide conditions.",
        "reason": "Absolute stock and rate of growth are distinguished."
      },
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c3-1",
          "c3-2"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "q2",
          "july",
          "boc"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Provincial labour commentary, July demographics, September decision",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "meaning": "Attributed economic interpretation and national funding conditions.",
        "reason": "Local causal effects are hypotheses; no fabricated migration or mortgage figures."
      }
    ]
  },
  "datasetFindings": [
    {
      "reportFile": "analysis.json",
      "reportSha256": "9325f751220473524224e1d0c673d943750d59310400adcce4ed7d75daad298c",
      "claimIds": [
        "c1-1",
        "c2-2"
      ],
      "archiveContribution": "Joining distinct dated resale releases and neighbourhood rows distinguishes the breadth and sequence of adjustment from its absolute severity."
    }
  ],
  "causalChains": [
    {
      "claimId": "c3-2",
      "sources": [
        "q2",
        "july",
        "boc"
      ],
      "mechanism": "Costly financing and fewer new households slow absorption; delayed existing sales can postpone the owners' next purchases.",
      "localExposure": "Montreal transaction chains connecting condo and house markets.",
      "timeHorizon": "Late 2026 through March 2027",
      "counterEvidence": "Strong employment and household moves within the region could sustain demand; linked transactions are not observed.",
      "forecastImplication": "Predict broader marketing-time pressure, rather than a uniform price collapse."
    }
  ],
  "gaps": [
    "One monthly release does not establish a durable turning point.",
    "CMA figures are not municipal or neighbourhood measurements.",
    "No forecast outcome is yet due."
  ],
  "retrievalCoverage": {
    "initialLocalPageLimit": 100,
    "hasMore": true,
    "statement": "Initial association-based candidates are bounded discovery. Selected original captures and complete named-source histories were inspected; unrelated geography and generated narrative claims were excluded."
  },
  "sharedPacketRefs": [
    "shared/checked-national-context.json"
  ]
}