Churchill Park neighbourhood: St. John's sales rise as listings fall, but city data does not measure the area

Key facts and reporting periods

Market summary

St. John's residential sales volume increased by 4.4 per cent to 2,796 transactions in 2025 while total listings decreased by 2.4 per cent to 1,489, according to a REMAX outlook published September 20, 2026. These city-level figures are not measured at the Churchill Park neighbourhood level and do not establish local price, inventory or demand outcomes.

Central finding

The strongest measured observation is that St. John's city-wide sales volume rose 4.4 per cent year-over-year to 2,796 while total listings fell 2.4 per cent to 1,489 in 2025, creating a tighter supply environment at the municipal scale. This matters because it frames the broader market context within which Churchill Park neighbourhood operates, though no supplied source measures transactions, prices or inventory specifically within the neighbourhood boundaries. Sources: [St. John's, Newfoundland Housing Market Outlook (2026) | REMAX]

How the numbers connect

The change in St. John's sales volume from 2024 to 2025 establishes a 4.4 per cent increase in transaction count at the city level. Calculation: (2,796 - 2,677) / 2,677 * 100 = 4.44%, reported as 4.4% in the source. Definitions: Sales Volume is the count of completed residential sale transactions in St. John's, NL, for the calendar year 2025 compared to 2024. The metric is city-scoped, not neighbourhood-scoped. Limit: This calculation cannot establish whether sales volume changed within Churchill Park neighbourhood, nor can it determine local price effects, buyer competition or inventory levels specific to the target area. Sources: [St. John's, Newfoundland Housing Market Outlook (2026) | REMAX]

City-wide sales growth outpaces listing decline in St. John's

REMAX's 2026 housing market outlook for St. John's reports that residential sales transactions increased by 4.4 per cent from 2,677 in 2024 to 2,796 in 2025, while the total number of listings decreased by 2.4 per cent from 1,526 to 1,489 over the same period. The report describes this combination as creating a seller's market environment with approximately 4.5 months of inventory at the city level. These figures are measured for the entire municipality of St.

The REMAX outlook further forecasts that average residential sale prices will rise by 10 per cent in 2026 compared to 2025, driven by limited housing stock and strong demand from first-time buyers and investors. This projection is an analytical estimate, not an observed fact, and applies to the city as a whole. Sources: [St. John's, Newfoundland Housing Market Outlook (2026) | REMAX]

Mortgage renewal wave and stable policy rate shape national financing backdrop

Royal LePage reports that the last of the five-year fixed-rate mortgages taken out during the pandemic will come up for renewal over the next year, representing approximately 12 per cent of all outstanding Canadian mortgages, with borrowers facing an average 15 per cent increase in monthly payments. Ratehub.ca notes that the Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25 per cent on September 2, 2026, keeping lenders' prime rate at 4.45 per cent, while the lowest available five-year fixed mortgage rate in Canada stood at 4.24 per cent as of September 18, 2026. These financing conditions are measured at the national level and do not establish how they affect borrowing capacity, demand or prices within Churchill Park neighbourhood.

The mechanism through which national financing conditions reach local markets operates through household budget constraints and lender qualification standards, but no supplied source measures whether these forces changed transaction volumes, prices or inventory specifically in the target locality. TD Economics projects that national sales will continue to rise through the second half of 2026, supported by pent-up demand and lower bond yields, though levels are expected to remain below pre-pandemic norms until late 2027. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News] [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca] [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate]

Federal infrastructure funding sets long-term development conditions without local project confirmation

The Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund, established by Budget 2024 on April 16, 2024, provides $6 billion in federal funding over 10 years to accelerate the construction and upgrading of housing-enabling water, wastewater, stormwater and solid waste infrastructure. Communities with populations greater than 30,000 must implement zoning changes allowing four units as-of-right to qualify for CHIF funding, a condition that applies to St. John's given its census subdivision population of 128,693 estimated on July 1, 2025. Under the Direct Delivery stream, projects must be substantially completed by September 2031, while those under the Provincial and Territorial Agreement stream have a completion deadline of September 2033.

These federal funding conditions create a framework for potential infrastructure investment that could enable additional housing supply in St. John's over the coming decade, but no supplied source identifies specific CHIF-funded projects, approved developments or zoning changes within Churchill Park neighbourhood. The Build Communities Strong Fund, providing $51 billion over 10 years starting in 2026-27, similarly supports public infrastructure broadly, including housing, but specific allocation to housing projects depends on future project selection. Sources: [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada] [Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada]

The strongest counter-case

Scotiabank's Housing News Flash dated February 18, 2026 reports that St. John's MLS Home Price Index fell 0.9 per cent month-over-month and 4.9 per cent year-over-year in January 2026, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 2 per cent indicating a buyer's market. This contrasts with the REMAX report's characterization of a seller's market environment based on 2025 annual data, suggesting that market balance may have shifted between the two observation periods or that different metrics capture different aspects of market dynamics. Sources: [HNF20260218]

Living here

Seven amenity points are mapped inside Churchill Park neighbourhood: two schools (Gonzaga High and Rennies River Elementary School), one park (Churchill Park Playground), three transit stops (Churchill Square, Elizabeth Avenue #147, and Elizabeth Avenue at St. Pat's Mercy Home), and one recreation facility. These counts reflect recorded map presence only and do not establish walkability, access quality, connectivity, buyer demand or price effects.

Sources: [Gonzaga High]

The early signal

The total number of listings in St. John's decreased by 2.4 per cent from 1,526 in 2024 to 1,489 in 2025, while sales volume increased by 4.4 per cent to 2,796, according to REMAX's 2026 outlook. How it reaches the market: A declining listing count combined with rising sales volume reduces the months of inventory available to buyers, which typically exerts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among purchasers when demand remains stable or grows. This dynamic operates at the city level and may influence the broader market environment in which Churchill Park neighbourhood transactions occur, though no supplied source measures whether this shift has already altered local pricing or absorption rates. Typical lead time: Listing and sales volume changes typically precede sustained price movements by one to two quarters, as inventory tightness first affects time-on-market and offer multiples before translating into higher closing prices. Sources: [St. John's, Newfoundland Housing Market Outlook (2026) | REMAX]

Next 3 months, through December 2026

Prices: flat. St. John's city-level prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the near term, with the Scotiabank HPI showing a 0.9 per cent month-over-month decline in January 2026. This scenario is not a measured result for Churchill Park neighbourhood. Why: The most recent city-level price data from Scotiabank (February 18, 2026) shows a slight month-over-month decline in the MLS HPI, while REMAX's annual data indicates a tighter supply environment. The divergence between these observations suggests short-term price stability at the city level, but no neighbourhood-specific data exists to confirm or refute this pattern locally. Buyers: wait. With city-level prices showing slight downward pressure in early 2026 and no evidence of local price acceleration, buyers in Churchill Park neighbourhood may benefit from continued negotiation leverage if the broader softening persists through winter. Sellers: either way. Sellers should monitor local listing activity closely; if the city-wide tightening of inventory continues, well-priced properties may still attract competitive offers, but the lack of neighbourhood-specific data makes timing uncertain. Watch: A sustained increase in new listings in St. John's that reverses the 2.4 per cent decline would signal easing supply pressure and could reduce buyer urgency in the coming months. Confidence: low. Sources: [HNF20260218] [St. John's, Newfoundland Housing Market Outlook (2026) | REMAX]

Next 6 months, through March 2027

Prices: rising. REMAX forecasts a 10 per cent increase in average residential sale prices in St. John's for 2026 compared to 2025, driven by limited housing stock. This projection is not a measured outcome for Churchill Park neighbourhood. Why: The REMAX forecast attributes the expected price increase to constrained supply and strong demand from first-time buyers and investors. The city-wide reduction in listings to 1,489 in 2025 supports the premise of limited inventory, though the forecast is an analytical estimate subject to market volatility and does not account for potential shifts in financing conditions or national economic factors. Buyers: buy now. If the REMAX forecast materializes, waiting beyond early 2027 could mean facing significantly higher prices in St. John's. Buyers who act before the spring selling season may secure better terms if the projected appreciation begins to take hold. Sellers: list now. Sellers who list in the first half of 2027 may benefit from the anticipated price appreciation, particularly if the supply constraints persist. Delaying a sale risks missing the peak of the projected 10 per cent increase. Watch: A significant increase in mortgage delinquency rates or a sharp rise in interest rates above the current 2.25 per cent policy rate could dampen demand and invalidate the price appreciation forecast. Confidence: moderate. Sources: [St. John's, Newfoundland Housing Market Outlook (2026) | REMAX] [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca]

Next 12 months, through September 2027

Prices: rising. National sales are expected to grind higher through 2026 and into 2027, supported by pent-up demand, though levels remain below pre-pandemic norms. St. John's city-level prices may continue their upward trajectory if supply constraints persist. This is not a measured target-locality result. Why: TD Economics projects continued national sales growth through 2027, while the CMHC Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report indicates Canada needs 187,000 to 238,000 homes annually to close its supply gap. These national conditions create a backdrop of persistent supply constraint that may support price growth in St. John's, but the wide range in the national supply gap estimate and the absence of local data limit confidence in the magnitude of any local effect. Buyers: either way. Buyers face a trade-off between acting now to avoid potential price increases and waiting for possible moderation if national economic conditions deteriorate. The uncertainty in both directions makes either strategy defensible depending on individual financial circumstances. Sellers: wait. Sellers may benefit from waiting until the full effect of the projected price appreciation is realized, particularly if the supply constraints identified by REMAX persist into 2027. However, this strategy carries the risk of market reversal if financing conditions tighten unexpectedly. Watch: A substantial increase in housing starts or completions in St. John's that closes the local supply gap would undermine the basis for continued price appreciation and could lead to flat or declining prices by late 2027. Confidence: low. Sources: [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate] [Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC] [St. John's, Newfoundland Housing Market Outlook (2026) | REMAX]

Assumptions: The REMAX forecast of a 10 per cent price increase in St. John's for 2026 holds true, assuming no major shifts in national economic conditions, interest rates or local supply; The Bank of Canada maintains its policy rate near 2.25 per cent through the forecast period, preventing a sudden spike in borrowing costs that would dampen demand; No significant new housing supply enters the St. John's market that would reverse the 2.4 per cent decline in listings observed in 2025. What would reverse this: A sharp increase in interest rates above 3.0 per cent, a deterioration in national employment conditions, or a surge in new housing completions in St. John's could reverse the projected price appreciation and return the market to a buyer's position, invalidating the rising price direction for the 6- and 12-month windows. Sources: [St. John's, Newfoundland Housing Market Outlook (2026) | REMAX] [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca] [Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC]