Westmount Buyers Gain Leverage as London Inventory Hits Record High

Key facts and reporting periods

Market summary

London and St. Thomas recorded a record 6.3 months of inventory and a 37.5% sales-to-new-listings ratio in August 2026, signaling a distinct shift toward buyer leverage. These city-level metrics provide the structural context for Westmount, where local transaction data remains unmeasured but likely tracks the broader regional absorption slowdown.

Central finding

The London and St. Thomas housing market entered a pronounced buyer's phase in August 2026, with the sales-to-new-listings ratio falling to 37.5% and months of inventory reaching a record 6.3. This measured city-level condition indicates downward price pressure and increased seller competition, which serves as the primary analytical framework for interpreting local dynamics in Westmount, though no target-scoped transaction data confirms specific neighbourhood outcomes. Sources: [London & St. Thomas Association of REALTORS® | CREA Statistics] [London & St. Thomas Real Estate Statistics - August 2026 | viewhomes.ca] [London Housing Market Report: Sep. 9th, 2026 Update | Interactive Map - WOWA.ca]

How the numbers connect

The sales-to-new-listings ratio in the London and St. Thomas market fell by 7.0 percentage points from July to August 2026, moving further below the CREA balanced band. Calculation: August 2026 ratio: 37.5%. July 2026 ratio: 44.5%. Change: 37.5 - 44.5 = -7.0 percentage points. Distance below balanced band floor (45%): 45 - 37.5 = 7.5 percentage points. Definitions: Sales-to-new-listings ratio is the percentage of new listings that sold in a given month. The CREA balanced band is 45-65%. Observation period is August 2026 for the LSTAR board area. Limit: This calculation establishes the magnitude of the monthly shift and distance from the balanced threshold at the LSTAR board level. It does not establish a sustained trend, seasonality, or a target-locality outcome for Westmount. Sources: [London & St. Thomas Association of REALTORS® | CREA Statistics] [London & St. Thomas Real Estate Statistics - August 2026 | viewhomes.ca]

Record Inventory Signals Buyer Leverage in London Market

The London and St. Thomas housing market recorded a new peak of 6.3 months of inventory in August 2026, accompanied by a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 37.5%, down from 44.5% in July. This ratio falls well below the 45 to 65 percent band that CREA treats as balanced, indicating a distinct shift toward buyer-favorable conditions. With 3,332 active listings and only 526 sales in August, the market is experiencing significant excess supply relative to absorption rates.

The median days on market for single detached homes in the region was 21 days in Q2 2026, up slightly from 20 days a year earlier, while townhouses took 39 days, up from 27. This lengthening of time on market across segments reinforces the interpretation that sellers are facing increased competition. For residents in Westmount, this means that listing a home requires precise pricing to stand out among the thousands of other properties available in the broader London area. Sources: [London & St. Thomas Association of REALTORS® | CREA Statistics] [London Housing Market Report: Sep. 9th, 2026 Update | Interactive Map - WOWA.ca] [London & St. Thomas Market Conditions | CREA Statistics] [London & St. Thomas Real Estate Statistics - August 2026 | viewhomes.ca]

Mortgage Renewals and Rate Stability Shape Demand Capacity

Borrowers renewing pandemic-era five-year fixed-rate mortgages face an average 15% increase in monthly payments over the next year, affecting approximately 12% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages. This financial pressure reduces household disposable income and borrowing capacity, potentially dampening demand for new home purchases. In London, the lowest 5-year variable mortgage rate stood at 3.3% as of September 19, 2026, providing some relief for those opting for variable products. However, the central bank has noted that long-term bond yields have increased globally, causing fixed mortgage rates to rise, which complicates the decision for buyers choosing between fixed and variable terms.

The transmission of these national financing conditions to the local market is mediated by individual borrower circumstances and local lending practices. The strict mortgage stress test rules mean that most borrowers qualified at rates higher than what they actually paid, providing a buffer against default. Nevertheless, the cumulative effect of higher payments and rising fixed rates may slow the pace of new entries into the market, sustaining the high inventory levels observed in the London and St. Thomas region. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News] [London Housing Market Report: Sep. 9th, 2026 Update | Interactive Map - WOWA.ca] [London & St. Thomas Interest Rate Changes | CREA Statistics]

Segmented Performance Reveals Divergent Supply Dynamics

Despite the overall buyer's market, townhouses were the only segment to add sales volume in August 2026, rising 1.4% year-over-year to 72 transactions. Sellers of townhouses also collected more than 98 cents on the asking dollar, indicating stronger pricing power in this category compared to others. In contrast, apartment unit sales numbered 134 in Q2 2026, declining 11.8% from the same quarter in 2025, while single detached home sales remained relatively stable at 1,544 units. This segmentation suggests that affordability constraints are driving demand toward lower-priced property types, even as the broader market cools.

The median sale price for apartments in London and St. Thomas decreased by 15.4% year-over-year to $290,000 in Q2 2026, while townhouses fell 8.7% to $483,708. Single detached homes saw a smaller decline of 2.3% to $640,000. These price adjustments reflect the varying degrees of supply and demand balance across different housing types. For Westmount residents, the strength in the townhouse segment may offer a relative advantage if considering a move, as this category appears more resilient to the broader market downturn. The divergence in performance underscores the importance of property type when assessing market conditions in a localized context. Sources: [London & St. Thomas Real Estate Statistics - August 2026 | viewhomes.ca] [London & St. Thomas Sales by Category | CREA Statistics] [London & St. Thomas Median Price | CREA Statistics]

The strongest counter-case

Townhouse sales volume in the London and St. Thomas market rose 1.4% year-over-year in August 2026, making it the only segment to add volume, and sellers in this category collected more than 98 cents on the asking dollar. Additionally, apartment months of inventory declined from 6.6 in Q2 2025 to 5.8 in Q2 2026, suggesting tightening conditions in specific segments despite the broader buyer's market signal. Sources: [London & St. Thomas Real Estate Statistics - August 2026 | viewhomes.ca] [London & St. Thomas Market Conditions | CREA Statistics]

Living here

Westmount contains 26 mapped amenities, including 10 parks such as Westmount Lions Park, Lynngate Grove Park, and Reservoir Park; 4 schools including W. Sherwood Fox Public School, Saunders Secondary School, Jean Vanier Catholic School, and Westmount Public School; 3 grocery stores including Superking Supermarket, FreshCo, and Loblaws; 2 transit stops; and 7 recreation facilities including Bostwick Community Centre.

Schools: Saunders Secondary School shows mixed comparative performance with a slight improvement from the previous year, reflecting a moderate standing that does not capture the full scope of educational support or safety. The Fraser Institute cautions that the choice of a school should not be made solely on the basis of any one source of information. Sources: [W. Sherwood Fox Public School] [Cleardale Public School]

The early signal

Months of inventory in the London and St. Thomas market reached a new peak of 6.3 in August 2026, up from 5.1 in August 2025, serving as a leading indicator of continued price softening. How it reaches the market: As active listings outpace sales, the months of inventory metric rises, indicating that homes are staying on the market longer. This accumulation of unsold stock forces sellers to reduce prices to attract buyers, thereby transmitting the supply surplus into lower realized sale prices in subsequent months. Typical lead time: Months of inventory typically leads price changes by one to two reporting cycles as excess supply accumulates before prices adjust to clear the market. Sources: [London & St. Thomas Association of REALTORS® | CREA Statistics] [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics]

Next 3 months, through December 2026

Prices: flat. Prices in the London and St. Thomas market are expected to remain flat or decline slightly as the 6.3 months of inventory exerts downward pressure. This is not a measured Westmount result. Why: The 6.3 months of inventory and 37.5% sales-to-new-listings ratio in the London and St. Thomas market indicate strong buyer leverage. With 3,332 active listings competing for 526 sales, sellers face pressure to reduce prices to close deals. This scenario is not a measured Westmount result but reflects the parent geography's conditions. Buyers: buy now. Buyers can negotiate aggressively due to high inventory and low absorption, potentially securing prices below asking while selecting from a wide range of options. Sellers: wait. Sellers may benefit from waiting until seasonal demand picks up or inventory levels decrease, as current conditions favor buyers who have ample time to shop. Watch: A rise in the sales-to-new-listings ratio above 45% or a drop in months of inventory below 5.0 would indicate a return to balanced market conditions. Confidence: moderate. Sources: [London & St. Thomas Association of REALTORS® | CREA Statistics] [London Housing Market Report: Sep. 9th, 2026 Update | Interactive Map - WOWA.ca]

Next 6 months, through March 2027

Prices: falling. Prices in the London and St. Thomas market may continue to soften as the mortgage renewal wave dampens demand. This is not a measured Westmount result. Why: The upcoming renewal of pandemic-era fixed-rate mortgages affects 12% of Canadian borrowers, with average payments rising 15%. This reduces borrowing capacity and may push some potential buyers back into the rental market, sustaining the high inventory levels observed in London and St. Thomas. This mechanism applies nationally but impacts the local market through reduced demand. Buyers: either way. Buyers should monitor their own financing eligibility carefully, as stress test requirements remain strict. Those with pre-approved financing can still find value, while others may need to wait for rate stability. Sellers: wait. Sellers should prepare for a competitive environment where pricing accuracy is critical. Waiting allows for better alignment with potential buyers who have navigated the renewal process. Watch: An increase in mortgage delinquency rates above historical norms or a sudden drop in new listings would signal a shift in market dynamics. Confidence: low. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News] [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate]

Next 12 months, through September 2027

Prices: rising. Prices in the London and St. Thomas market are expected to stabilize or rise modestly as demand recovers and inventory decreases. This is not a measured Westmount result. Why: National projections suggest sales will grind higher through late 2026, supported by pent-up demand, but remain below pre-pandemic norms until late 2027. In the London and St. Thomas market, this gradual recovery may lead to a stabilization of prices as inventory levels normalize. This outlook is based on national trends applied to the local context. Buyers: wait. Waiting allows buyers to observe whether the predicted fall rebound materializes, potentially offering better entry points if demand increases and inventory tightens. Sellers: list now. Sellers acting now can capitalize on the current high visibility of their property in a market with many options, positioning themselves ahead of the anticipated demand recovery. Watch: A failure of national sales to rise as projected or a continued increase in months of inventory beyond 7.0 would invalidate the recovery expectation. Confidence: low. Sources: [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate] [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News]

Assumptions: The Bank of Canada maintains its current interest rate stance, keeping variable mortgage rates stable near the 3.3% observed in London; No major new housing developments or zoning changes occur within the Westmount boundaries during the forecast period; The national mortgage renewal wave continues to affect approximately 12% of outstanding mortgages without triggering widespread delinquencies. What would reverse this: A significant drop in interest rates or a surge in local demand could rapidly absorb the 6.3 months of inventory, reversing the buyer's market conditions and stabilizing prices earlier than projected. Sources: [London & St. Thomas Association of REALTORS® | CREA Statistics] [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News] [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate]