New Westminster can beat its housing total and still miss the affordability test

New Westminster’s rental policy did not move in a straight line

New Westminster’s retained policy record shows a sequence of different tools, not one steadily tightening rule. In January 2019, rental-tenure zoning covered six stratified rental buildings and 12 City-owned properties. Later that year, the original inclusionary policy offered three ways to deliver between 5% and 20% of rezoning units as below- or non-market rental. In 2021, the city began repealing a separate renoviction-licensing section because provincial tenancy-law changes made it inoperable. [2019 rental-tenure zoning record] [2019 Inclusionary Housing Policy record] [2021 renoviction bylaw transition]

Those actions addressed different failures. Tenure zoning protected rental use at 18 named buildings or properties, not 18 apartments. Inclusionary policy sought new affordable units from development entitlements. Renoviction rules regulated displacement during major work. The province’s 2021 intervention replaced part of the third tool; it did not erase the first two. [2019 rental-tenure zoning record] [2019 Inclusionary Housing Policy record] [2021 renoviction bylaw transition]

The policy adopted in 2025 now expects 10% of units in eligible applications to be inclusionary and sold to a qualified non-profit operator at a subsidized price. It applies city-wide to applications providing 10 or more homes while seeking added development rights, with exemptions including all-townhouse, secured-market-rental and Queensborough projects. The current definition sets below-market rents at no more than 10% below CMHC’s Vancouver CMA average; discounts of 0% to 9.99% are classified as near market. [Current affordable-housing policies] [New Westminster 2026 development updates]

A strong unit total can still miss the affordability mix

The provincial order requires 4,432 net new occupied homes from August 2024 through July 2029. New Westminster reported 1,175 in Year One, 519 above that year’s target. The same order’s guidelines call for 2,298 rental homes, including 1,189 below-market units and 63 supportive units. Progress is therefore more than a total: tenure and affordability are part of the requested mix. [New Westminster housing target and progress]

The city’s page still states that another 213 homes were needed by July 31, 2026, even though that date had passed by the September 7 review. Without the Year Two outcome, the 1,175-unit result should not be carried forward as proof of current compliance. The city also notes that Year One completions came from long-running work begun before the target order. [New Westminster housing target and progress]

June 2026 zoning permits up to six infill homes on many detached and duplex properties, and roughly 570 properties were rezoned for townhouses where dimensional rules can be met. This is legal capacity, not a completion forecast. Queensborough remains restricted while water and sewer capacity is studied, which gives the city’s broad upzoning a clear infrastructure boundary. [New Westminster 2026 development updates]

Forecast: the total target stays easier than the affordability target

The conditional forecast through July 2027 is that New Westminster remains ahead of the cumulative total-unit trajectory while progress toward the below-market rental guideline is harder to establish. Confidence is moderate. Year One created a 519-unit cushion and 2026 zoning added capacity, but the current inclusionary rule applies only to eligible entitlement increases, contains exemptions and defines below-market rent at a relatively shallow discount. National financing remains a constraint: the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% in September while long-term bond yields had risen. [New Westminster housing target and progress] [New Westminster 2026 development updates] [Current affordable-housing policies] [September monetary policy decision]

The forecast fails if the next provincial progress report puts cumulative net occupied units below target. The affordability concern weakens if the report identifies occupied below-market rentals on pace with the 1,189-unit five-year guideline, with rents and eligibility verified. Approved capacity, applications and gross completions are not substitutes for that outcome. [New Westminster housing target and progress] [Current affordable-housing policies] [New Westminster 2026 development updates]