{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "kind": "city-market-research-evidence",
  "publication": {
    "id": "city-qc-a41d56e2-1784-4411-949c-1d7050ad5db1-90e5d84431d8",
    "batch": "edition-2026-09-07",
    "publicPath": "/markets/qc/qc-trois-rivieres-market-outlook-2026-09-07",
    "sourceArticleSha256": "90e5d84431d8bcfc4ddf08a41c89b9b24fe38eda35f6535e795517369b252042",
    "publishedAtUtc": "2026-09-08T01:38:04.954934Z",
    "editorialLanguageCheck": "passed"
  },
  "cityId": "a41d56e2-1784-4411-949c-1d7050ad5db1",
  "city": "Trois-Rivieres",
  "province": "QC",
  "asOfUtc": "2026-09-07T16:00:00.1724277+00:00",
  "thesis": "Trois-Rivieres is attracting more income-property transactions, but that does not make the recent price trend a straight line. The archive shows a shift from exceptional plex median-price growth in winter to stronger transaction volume and more choice in spring.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "key": "q1",
      "name": "Q1 2026 regional market release",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/des-marches-toujours-sous-pression-au-debut-de-2026-dans-les-rmr-de-sherbrooke-trois-rivieres-et-drummondville/",
      "publisher": "Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers; CIEMCQ for the Q1 three-CMA release",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "Q1 2026 versus Q1 2025, published April 15, 2026",
      "dateNote": "Q1 2026 versus Q1 2025, published April 15, 2026; original publication date in the release body, distinct from retained capture 2026-08-03T14:27:35.7124914 UTC.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "e7b0bc6e-39f3-4aba-a1ae-fe68d5583ce0"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Trois-Rivieres CMA section; provincial context separately scoped",
      "verification": "Entire relevant original-language source section read in retained raw text and the current primary release on September 7, 2026. Quarterly listing definition checked in APCIQ barometer."
    },
    {
      "key": "q2",
      "name": "Q2 2026 provincial and regional market release",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/quebecs-real-estate-market-gradually-rebalances-in-the-second-quarter/",
      "publisher": "Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers; CIEMCQ for the Q1 three-CMA release",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025, published July 14, 2026",
      "dateNote": "Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025, published July 14, 2026; original publication date in the release body, distinct from retained capture 2026-09-03T05:36:58.3694575 UTC.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional",
        "provincial"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "7b0b434b-d5b5-4c6a-a67b-7c55f010cdde"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Trois-Rivieres CMA section; provincial context separately scoped",
      "verification": "Entire relevant original-language source section read in retained raw text and the current primary release on September 7, 2026. Quarterly listing definition checked in APCIQ barometer."
    },
    {
      "key": "boc",
      "name": "Bank of Canada September decision",
      "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/",
      "publisher": "Bank of Canada",
      "publicationDate": "2026-09-02",
      "observationPeriod": "September 2, 2026",
      "dateNote": "September 2 decision. Current primary source checked in shared national packet.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "national"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Overnight target and Financial conditions paragraphs"
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "c1-1",
      "kind": "observation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "q1",
        "q2"
      ],
      "explanation": "Both original quarter sources and property categories checked; no arithmetic change in unchanged assets asserted."
    },
    {
      "id": "c1-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "q1",
        "q2"
      ],
      "explanation": "Original join of price-growth regime, sales volume and broad stock. Does not say total listings are plex listings."
    },
    {
      "id": "c2-1",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "q2"
      ],
      "explanation": "City versus outer CMA preserved; average days not median, plex count not all rental buildings or unbrokered transactions."
    },
    {
      "id": "c3-1",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "q2",
        "boc"
      ],
      "explanation": "Provincial risks conditional in local rental market; no rent, capitalization rate or mortgage-price estimate invented."
    },
    {
      "id": "c4-1",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "section": 3,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "q1",
        "q2",
        "boc"
      ],
      "explanation": "Does not extrapolate -24 percentage point difference as a forecast. Qualifies composition and defines outcome checks."
    }
  ],
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "claimId": "c4-1",
      "horizon": "Through March 31, 2027",
      "assumptions": [
        "Stable local employment",
        "Financing remains available"
      ],
      "upside": "Renewed sustained double-digit plex price growth with shorter selling times.",
      "downside": "Higher vacancy or job losses weaken cash flow and demand.",
      "changeSignals": [
        "Plex median growth and mean marketing times in next two quarters",
        "Transaction composition and outlier influence"
      ],
      "confidence": "low",
      "confidenceReason": "Two-quarter median comparison is sensitive to small-building mix; rental fundamentals are not captured."
    }
  ],
  "review": {
    "factual": true,
    "editorial": true,
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
    "articleSha256": "90e5d84431d8bcfc4ddf08a41c89b9b24fe38eda35f6535e795517369b252042"
  },
  "insightReview": {
    "articleSha256": "90e5d84431d8bcfc4ddf08a41c89b9b24fe38eda35f6535e795517369b252042",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
    "findings": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c1-2"
        ],
        "ordinaryInterpretation": "A 48% increase in plex transactions proves an accelerating price boom.",
        "additionalFinding": "The retained Q1 price-growth rate was much higher than Q2 despite the later transaction surge; broader stock growth and longer plex selling times qualify the volume headline.",
        "archiveContribution": "The winter capture supplies the earlier price regime, distinguishing turnover growth from price acceleration.",
        "localConsequence": "Investors need property cash flows and comparable sold buildings, not extrapolated volume growth, to justify offers.",
        "counterEvidence": "Medians reflect changing sold-building mix; inventory remains scarce and the city sales trend is stronger than the outskirts.",
        "missingLinks": [
          "No matched plex sample, rental income or capitalization-rate series."
        ],
        "observationIds": [
          "winter-plex",
          "spring-sales",
          "spring-price"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "removedOrDemoted": [
      "Removed claim that a lower growth rate means buildings lost the equivalent value."
    ]
  },
  "definitionReview": {
    "articleSha256": "90e5d84431d8bcfc4ddf08a41c89b9b24fe38eda35f6535e795517369b252042",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
    "checks": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "title",
          "description",
          "lead",
          "c1-1",
          "c1-2",
          "c2-1",
          "c3-1",
          "c4-1"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "q1",
          "q2",
          "boc"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Named city sections of the listed dated releases; provincial highlights and September 2 Bank decision",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "meaning": "Centris brokered residential sales in the explicitly named CMA. Quarterly active listings average month-end stocks; median prices reflect sold-property mix; days on market are means. Each change is year over year unless explicitly described otherwise.",
        "reason": "The retained Q1 price-growth rate was much higher than Q2 despite the later transaction surge; broader stock growth and longer plex selling times qualify the volume headline. Medians reflect changing sold-building mix; inventory remains scarce and the city sales trend is stronger than the outskirts.",
        "period": "Dated periods identified separately in every comparison",
        "calculation": "Uses reported rates and qualitative cross-period joins; no compounding of year-over-year rates or conversion of medians to same-home appreciation."
      }
    ]
  },
  "datasetFindings": [
    {
      "reportFile": "analysis.json",
      "reportSha256": "6db1504d48724d974c1eaa91a7d967f5dea0d025661903b4a239ac37a7af5cbc",
      "claimIds": [
        "c1-2"
      ],
      "archiveContribution": "The winter capture supplies the earlier price regime, distinguishing turnover growth from price acceleration."
    }
  ],
  "causalChains": [
    {
      "claimId": "c3-1",
      "sources": [
        "q2",
        "boc"
      ],
      "mechanism": "Employment and population growth influence tenant demand while bond-linked financing changes investor debt service.",
      "localExposure": "Trois-Rivieres income-property purchasers and rental holdings.",
      "timeHorizon": "Late 2026 through March 2027",
      "counterEvidence": "Local transaction activity is rising despite provincial weakness.",
      "forecastImplication": "Expect price growth to normalize while distinguishing rental underwriting from sales volume."
    }
  ],
  "gaps": [
    "CMA figures include surrounding municipalities.",
    "Quarterly medians do not track unchanged buildings; all-category stock is not plex stock.",
    "Rental vacancy and property cash flows were not available in the selected evidence."
  ],
  "retrievalCoverage": {
    "initialLocalPageLimit": 100,
    "hasMore": false,
    "statement": "Initial association-based candidates are bounded discovery. Selected original captures and complete named-source histories were inspected; unrelated geography and generated narrative claims were excluded."
  },
  "sharedPacketRefs": [
    "shared/checked-national-context.json"
  ]
}