{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "kind": "city-market-research-evidence",
  "publication": {
    "id": "city-qc-b05cccd7-2461-4133-9551-08c3cb0419f2-5d198a6fd716",
    "batch": "edition-2026-09-07",
    "publicPath": "/markets/qc/qc-sherbrooke-market-outlook-2026-09-07",
    "sourceArticleSha256": "5d198a6fd7167203a2bcfcd150b258e37e139ee77c76f5d5afd45cab59fef7d4",
    "publishedAtUtc": "2026-09-08T01:38:04.954934Z",
    "editorialLanguageCheck": "passed"
  },
  "cityId": "b05cccd7-2461-4133-9551-08c3cb0419f2",
  "city": "Sherbrooke",
  "province": "QC",
  "asOfUtc": "2026-09-07T16:00:00.1724277+00:00",
  "thesis": "Sherbrooke still has a shortage of homes for sale, but the direction of the market has changed. The archive shows why a seller relying on the winter market would now be using the wrong comparison, especially for a condominium.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "key": "q1",
      "name": "Q1 2026 regional market release",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/des-marches-toujours-sous-pression-au-debut-de-2026-dans-les-rmr-de-sherbrooke-trois-rivieres-et-drummondville/",
      "publisher": "Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers; CIEMCQ for the Q1 three-CMA release",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "Q1 2026 versus Q1 2025, published April 15, 2026",
      "dateNote": "Q1 2026 versus Q1 2025, published April 15, 2026; original publication date in the release body, distinct from retained capture 2026-08-03T14:27:35.7124914 UTC.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "e7b0bc6e-39f3-4aba-a1ae-fe68d5583ce0"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Sherbrooke CMA section; provincial context separately scoped",
      "verification": "Entire relevant original-language source section read in retained raw text and the current primary release on September 7, 2026. Quarterly listing definition checked in APCIQ barometer."
    },
    {
      "key": "q2",
      "name": "Q2 2026 provincial and regional market release",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/quebecs-real-estate-market-gradually-rebalances-in-the-second-quarter/",
      "publisher": "Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers; CIEMCQ for the Q1 three-CMA release",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025, published July 14, 2026",
      "dateNote": "Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025, published July 14, 2026; original publication date in the release body, distinct from retained capture 2026-09-03T05:36:58.3694575 UTC.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional",
        "provincial"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "7b0b434b-d5b5-4c6a-a67b-7c55f010cdde"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Sherbrooke CMA section; provincial context separately scoped",
      "verification": "Entire relevant original-language source section read in retained raw text and the current primary release on September 7, 2026. Quarterly listing definition checked in APCIQ barometer."
    },
    {
      "key": "boc",
      "name": "Bank of Canada September decision",
      "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/",
      "publisher": "Bank of Canada",
      "publicationDate": "2026-09-02",
      "observationPeriod": "September 2, 2026",
      "dateNote": "September 2 decision. Current primary source checked in shared national packet.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "national"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Overnight target and Financial conditions paragraphs"
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "c1-1",
      "kind": "observation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "q1",
        "q2"
      ],
      "explanation": "Retained original French Q1 and English Q2 city/CMA definitions and year-over-year rates checked."
    },
    {
      "id": "c1-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "q1",
        "q2"
      ],
      "explanation": "Reported rates compared without arithmetic, seasonal mixing or same-home depreciation claim; caveat integral to finding."
    },
    {
      "id": "c2-1",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "q2"
      ],
      "explanation": "Quarterly listing average, historical benchmark and mean selling times distinguished; selection is interpretation not measured buyer identities."
    },
    {
      "id": "c3-1",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "q2",
        "boc"
      ],
      "explanation": "Explicit national-to-provincial-to-local mechanism and boundary; no assertion that migration caused category price movement."
    },
    {
      "id": "c4-1",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "section": 3,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "q1",
        "q2",
        "boc"
      ],
      "explanation": "Two relative segment/geography calls, uncalibrated and falsifiable, not a numerical price target."
    }
  ],
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "claimId": "c4-1",
      "horizon": "Through March 31, 2027",
      "assumptions": [
        "No sharp local employment shock",
        "No abrupt fall in fixed mortgage offers"
      ],
      "upside": "Condo buyers return and peripheral activity recovers.",
      "downside": "Supply builds across categories, broadening weakness.",
      "changeSignals": [
        "Condo versus house year-over-year median growth",
        "City versus outskirts sales changes in next two quarterly reports"
      ],
      "confidence": "low",
      "confidenceReason": "Reversal observed in two quarterly snapshots, not a calibrated forecast or causal estimate."
    }
  ],
  "review": {
    "factual": true,
    "editorial": true,
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
    "articleSha256": "5d198a6fd7167203a2bcfcd150b258e37e139ee77c76f5d5afd45cab59fef7d4"
  },
  "insightReview": {
    "articleSha256": "5d198a6fd7167203a2bcfcd150b258e37e139ee77c76f5d5afd45cab59fef7d4",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
    "findings": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c1-2",
          "c2-1"
        ],
        "ordinaryInterpretation": "Persistent inventory scarcity means the winter seller market is unchanged.",
        "additionalFinding": "The retained sequence reverses sales and inventory directions while condo median growth changes much more abruptly than house growth; the city also holds up better than the outer CMA.",
        "archiveContribution": "The Q1 capture preserves the now-outdated growth regime, allowing the latest figures to be interpreted as a segment-specific turn rather than an isolated weak quarter.",
        "localConsequence": "Condo and peripheral sellers should not import the house or central-city negotiating backdrop.",
        "counterEvidence": "Inventory remains below normal, medians are composition-sensitive and seasonal changes are not adjusted.",
        "missingLinks": [
          "No repeat-sales prices or city-specific migration attribution."
        ],
        "observationIds": [
          "winter-condo",
          "winter-supply",
          "spring-condo",
          "spring-geography"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "removedOrDemoted": [
      "Removed implication that changing year-over-year condo growth equals a quarter-on-quarter price fall."
    ]
  },
  "definitionReview": {
    "articleSha256": "5d198a6fd7167203a2bcfcd150b258e37e139ee77c76f5d5afd45cab59fef7d4",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
    "checks": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "title",
          "description",
          "lead",
          "c1-1",
          "c1-2",
          "c2-1",
          "c3-1",
          "c4-1"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "q1",
          "q2",
          "boc"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Named city sections of the listed dated releases; provincial highlights and September 2 Bank decision",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "meaning": "Centris brokered residential sales in the explicitly named CMA. Quarterly active listings average month-end stocks; median prices reflect sold-property mix; days on market are means. Each change is year over year unless explicitly described otherwise.",
        "reason": "The retained sequence reverses sales and inventory directions while condo median growth changes much more abruptly than house growth; the city also holds up better than the outer CMA. Inventory remains below normal, medians are composition-sensitive and seasonal changes are not adjusted.",
        "period": "Dated periods identified separately in every comparison",
        "calculation": "Uses reported rates and qualitative cross-period joins; no compounding of year-over-year rates or conversion of medians to same-home appreciation."
      }
    ]
  },
  "datasetFindings": [
    {
      "reportFile": "analysis.json",
      "reportSha256": "ae12b5e887d249baef3f630a666b6a8237527f97af70bf0e2b60e7143b22c88e",
      "claimIds": [
        "c1-2",
        "c2-1"
      ],
      "archiveContribution": "The Q1 capture preserves the now-outdated growth regime, allowing the latest figures to be interpreted as a segment-specific turn rather than an isolated weak quarter."
    }
  ],
  "causalChains": [
    {
      "claimId": "c3-1",
      "sources": [
        "q2",
        "boc"
      ],
      "mechanism": "A slower flow of financed new households can expose condo demand to budget pressure before house scarcity disappears.",
      "localExposure": "Sherbrooke CMA condos and peripheral homes.",
      "timeHorizon": "Late 2026 through March 2027",
      "counterEvidence": "Low inventories and city sales resilience remain supportive.",
      "forecastImplication": "Relative condo/periphery softness rather than a uniform price-collapse forecast."
    }
  ],
  "gaps": [
    "The narrative labels city, sector and CMA data separately.",
    "Median-price growth rates cannot be compounded into a same-property return.",
    "No forecast outcome has occurred."
  ],
  "retrievalCoverage": {
    "initialLocalPageLimit": 100,
    "hasMore": true,
    "statement": "Initial association-based candidates are bounded discovery. Selected original captures and complete named-source histories were inspected; unrelated geography and generated narrative claims were excluded."
  },
  "sharedPacketRefs": [
    "shared/checked-national-context.json"
  ]
}