{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "kind": "city-market-research-evidence",
  "publication": {
    "id": "city-qc-276445e5-4644-4af8-b2a0-eaa1f2fe2332-cf91e2a55376",
    "batch": "edition-2026-09-07",
    "publicPath": "/markets/qc/qc-shawinigan-market-outlook-2026-09-07",
    "sourceArticleSha256": "cf91e2a55376c7dd5f5beb0fdd53e1c5ac36dcc7974943cc6e605d6ade0288fa",
    "publishedAtUtc": "2026-09-08T01:38:04.954934Z",
    "editorialLanguageCheck": "passed"
  },
  "cityId": "276445e5-4644-4af8-b2a0-eaa1f2fe2332",
  "city": "Shawinigan",
  "province": "QC",
  "asOfUtc": "2026-09-07T16:00:00.1724277+00:00",
  "thesis": "Shawinigan nearly doubled housing starts in 2025, but most of that supply was aimed at renters. The next construction wave is already smaller, creating a more complicated outlook than a simple end to the housing shortage.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "key": "retained",
      "name": "Retained local construction summary",
      "url": "https://inspurious.com/story/dcf6c1cd-0bd6-4c79-a614-3c532695bea2",
      "publisher": "Inspurious",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "2025 starts; summary also discusses February 2026",
      "dateNote": "2025 starts; summary also discusses February 2026. Source checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:46:08.818781+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "16e1c448-33b3-4dfc-ba34-dde32cf20e66"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Annual total and intended-market paragraphs",
      "verification": "Retained narrative is a discovery source. Its material 2025 counts were checked against original APCHQ tables reporting CMHC; Saguenay geography corrected from ambiguous city label to CMA. No unverified rolling monthly averages used."
    },
    {
      "key": "resale",
      "name": "Quebec second-quarter resale results",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/quebecs-real-estate-market-gradually-rebalances-in-the-second-quarter/",
      "publisher": "Association professionnelle des courtiers immobiliers du Quebec",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025",
      "dateNote": "Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025. Source checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:46:08.818781+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional",
        "provincial"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "7b0b434b-d5b5-4c6a-a67b-7c55f010cdde"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Shawinigan results and provincial employment commentary",
      "verification": "Retained original read, source geography and period checked against current publisher text. Quoted analyst interpretations remain attributed and are not independent causal measurements."
    },
    {
      "key": "annual",
      "name": "Original 2025 construction tables",
      "url": "https://media.apchq.com/YGIMDZ8KRaWwV53eZ22fpw/2025-12-mec-mensuel-et-t4-2025.pdf",
      "publisher": "APCHQ, reporting CMHC Starts and Completions Survey",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "2025 actual starts versus 2024",
      "dateNote": "2025 actual starts versus 2024. Original tables and geographic labels checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:46:08.818781+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional",
        "provincial"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Municipality and CMA rows, pages 3 to 7",
      "verification": "Read original PDF table and labels. Actual unit starts, not building permits, completions or seasonally adjusted annual rates. Excluded erroneous July narrative that labels cumulative 31,376 as a seasonally adjusted rate."
    },
    {
      "key": "tenure",
      "name": "Original 2025 housing tenure tables",
      "url": "https://media.apchq.com/WtEqtsP0Q2Kh8o_L1u9tEg/26050-ea-26-com-bulletin-mise-en-chantier_v03.pdf",
      "publisher": "APCHQ, reporting CMHC Starts and Completions Survey",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "2025 actual starts by intended market",
      "dateNote": "2025 actual starts by intended market. Original tables and geographic labels checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:46:08.818781+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional",
        "provincial"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Saguenay or Shawinigan rows; table headings distinguish rental/cooperative, ownership and condominium",
      "verification": "Read original PDF table and labels. Actual unit starts, not building permits, completions or seasonally adjusted annual rates. Excluded erroneous July narrative that labels cumulative 31,376 as a seasonally adjusted rate."
    },
    {
      "key": "july",
      "name": "Original July 2026 construction tables",
      "url": "https://media.apchq.com/EJSw3pXRSpWcPUadkWVkBg/2026-07-mec_mensuel-juillet-2026.pdf",
      "publisher": "APCHQ, reporting CMHC Starts and Completions Survey",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "January to July 2026 versus January to July 2025",
      "dateNote": "January to July 2026 versus January to July 2025. Original tables and geographic labels checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:46:08.818781+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional",
        "provincial"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Page 3, named CMA or agglomeration row",
      "verification": "Read original PDF table and labels. Actual unit starts, not building permits, completions or seasonally adjusted annual rates. Excluded erroneous July narrative that labels cumulative 31,376 as a seasonally adjusted rate."
    },
    {
      "key": "boc",
      "name": "Bank of Canada September decision",
      "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/",
      "publisher": "Bank of Canada",
      "publicationDate": "2026-09-02",
      "observationPeriod": "September 2, 2026 policy decision and financial conditions since July",
      "dateNote": "Published September 2, 2026. Primary source checked in shared national packet.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:11:03.389512+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "national"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Policy decision and Financial conditions paragraphs",
      "verification": "Parent agent checked primary release; child independently opened official release and policy search."
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "c1-1",
      "kind": "observation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "retained",
        "annual",
        "tenure"
      ],
      "explanation": "Counts and market headings checked in original APCHQ table; no structural-type substitution."
    },
    {
      "id": "c1-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "resale",
        "retained",
        "tenure"
      ],
      "explanation": "Cross-source category mismatch is original finding; median growth alone does not prove bidding or unchanged-home appreciation."
    },
    {
      "id": "c2-1",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "july",
        "retained"
      ],
      "explanation": "Like-for-like cumulative actual starts in agglomeration; not a 52% fall in completions or rental starts."
    },
    {
      "id": "c2-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "retained",
        "tenure",
        "july",
        "resale"
      ],
      "explanation": "Conditional inference, no claim that any particular development is complete or offering concessions."
    },
    {
      "id": "c3-1",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "resale",
        "retained",
        "tenure",
        "july"
      ],
      "explanation": "Observable relative median and rental-availability outcomes; median mix and sparse local rental data limit confidence."
    },
    {
      "id": "c3-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "resale",
        "boc"
      ],
      "explanation": "Provincial and national pressure is connected conditionally to local tenure split, not asserted as observed local behaviour."
    }
  ],
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "claimId": "c3-1",
      "horizon": "Through June 30, 2027",
      "assumptions": [
        "Substantial 2025 rental completions",
        "No major local demand shock"
      ],
      "upside": "Rental choice improves before house-price growth loses its provincial lead.",
      "downside": "Immediate rental absorption or a local demand shock breaks the split.",
      "changeSignals": [
        "Next two quarterly house median changes versus Quebec",
        "Rental vacancy and lease-up evidence",
        "Completion status of 2025 rental starts"
      ],
      "confidence": "low",
      "confidenceReason": "Tenure mismatch is observed, but completions and household demand are not measured."
    }
  ],
  "review": {
    "factual": true,
    "editorial": true,
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:46:08.818781+00:00",
    "articleSha256": "cf91e2a55376c7dd5f5beb0fdd53e1c5ac36dcc7974943cc6e605d6ade0288fa"
  },
  "insightReview": {
    "articleSha256": "cf91e2a55376c7dd5f5beb0fdd53e1c5ac36dcc7974943cc6e605d6ade0288fa",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:46:08.818781+00:00",
    "findings": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c1-2",
          "c2-2"
        ],
        "observationIds": [
          "rental-wave",
          "house-prices"
        ],
        "ordinaryInterpretation": "Almost doubling housing starts should quickly ease house-buying competition.",
        "additionalFinding": "The 2025 construction wave was overwhelmingly rental while Q2 house medians rose strongly; the newer pipeline has slowed, so likely relief differs by tenure and may not be sustained.",
        "archiveContribution": "The retained tenure observation and later retained resale comparison reveal the mismatch before the current start slowdown is added as a forward supply test.",
        "localConsequence": "Rental operators face a different near-term competitive exposure from house sellers.",
        "counterEvidence": "Starts do not establish completion dates, asking rents, vacancy or the composition of sold houses.",
        "missingLinks": [
          "Completed 2025 rental cohort, lease-up outcomes and 2026 tenure split."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "removedOrDemoted": [
      "Removed the assumption that starts are completed homes or buildings.",
      "Removed any direct conversion of rental supply into houses for sale.",
      "Rejected the July APCHQ narrative mislabelling cumulative starts as an annualized rate."
    ]
  },
  "definitionReview": {
    "articleSha256": "cf91e2a55376c7dd5f5beb0fdd53e1c5ac36dcc7974943cc6e605d6ade0288fa",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:46:08.818781+00:00",
    "checks": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "title",
          "description",
          "lead",
          "c1-1",
          "c1-2",
          "c2-1",
          "c2-2",
          "c3-1"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "retained",
          "annual",
          "tenure",
          "july",
          "resale"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Named geographic rows, tenure headers, cumulative period labels and Q2 single-family metrics",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "meaning": "Actual starts, intended tenure and median transactions are distinct; no starts-to-completions conversion.",
        "reason": "Primary construction tables reconcile raw narrative labels; rolling estimates and unsourced ratios were omitted."
      },
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c3-2"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "resale",
          "boc"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Provincial employment commentary and September policy decision",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "meaning": "Macro mechanisms, not municipal employment or mortgage observations.",
        "reason": "Local causal impact remains conditional and counterevidence is included."
      }
    ]
  },
  "datasetFindings": [
    {
      "reportFile": "analysis.json",
      "reportSha256": "4c7b778a95212b9070abccc48fe05eb1ae89fac4f4ed124ce96a1e5aac4216ff",
      "claimIds": [
        "c1-2",
        "c2-2"
      ],
      "archiveContribution": "The retained tenure observation and later retained resale comparison reveal the mismatch before the current start slowdown is added as a forward supply test."
    }
  ],
  "causalChains": [
    {
      "claimId": "c2-2",
      "sources": [
        "retained",
        "tenure",
        "july",
        "resale"
      ],
      "mechanism": "The tenure and delivery date of a construction cohort determine which existing stock faces competition first.",
      "localExposure": "Shawinigan rental and resale markets, with source boundaries explicitly identified.",
      "timeHorizon": "Late 2026 through June 2027",
      "counterEvidence": "Completions, household formation and movement between tenures can change the sequence.",
      "forecastImplication": "Predict a conditional rental-versus-resale timing difference, not uniform price relief."
    }
  ],
  "gaps": [
    "No complete project or completion cohort.",
    "No calibrated forecast model or claimed historical accuracy.",
    "Municipal, agglomeration and CMA boundaries are identified in the prose."
  ],
  "retrievalCoverage": {
    "initialLocalPageLimit": 100,
    "hasMore": false,
    "statement": "Initial association-based candidates are bounded discovery. Selected original captures and complete named-source histories were inspected; unrelated geography and generated narrative claims were excluded."
  },
  "sharedPacketRefs": [
    "shared/checked-national-context.json"
  ]
}