{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "kind": "city-market-research-evidence",
  "publication": {
    "id": "city-qc-f91fc6f5-661c-4634-ada0-87149e06be72-b221f0a68bfc",
    "batch": "edition-2026-09-07",
    "publicPath": "/markets/qc/qc-saguenay-market-outlook-2026-09-07",
    "sourceArticleSha256": "b221f0a68bfc4f98762dc79574fabc276e9f3006e1f4cba390bf5180bc591ac9",
    "publishedAtUtc": "2026-09-08T01:38:04.954934Z",
    "editorialLanguageCheck": "passed"
  },
  "cityId": "f91fc6f5-661c-4634-ada0-87149e06be72",
  "city": "Saguenay",
  "province": "QC",
  "asOfUtc": "2026-09-07T16:00:00.1724277+00:00",
  "thesis": "Saguenay's construction outlook has changed faster than its resale market. The evidence points toward more choice ahead, but the tenure and completion dates will determine who benefits first.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "key": "retained",
      "name": "Retained local construction summary",
      "url": "https://inspurious.com/story/97978fe6-a16f-4cc0-828a-7b97e0aa008f",
      "publisher": "Inspurious",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "2025 starts; summary also discusses February 2026",
      "dateNote": "2025 starts; summary also discusses February 2026. Source checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:46:08.818781+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "9009cf1e-aee0-475c-acb1-0941b8b3fda5"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Annual total and intended-market paragraphs",
      "verification": "Retained narrative is a discovery source. Its material 2025 counts were checked against original APCHQ tables reporting CMHC; Saguenay geography corrected from ambiguous city label to CMA. No unverified rolling monthly averages used."
    },
    {
      "key": "resale",
      "name": "Quebec second-quarter resale results",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/quebecs-real-estate-market-gradually-rebalances-in-the-second-quarter/",
      "publisher": "Association professionnelle des courtiers immobiliers du Quebec",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025",
      "dateNote": "Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025. Source checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:46:08.818781+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional",
        "provincial"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "7b0b434b-d5b5-4c6a-a67b-7c55f010cdde"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Saguenay results and provincial employment commentary",
      "verification": "Retained original read, source geography and period checked against current publisher text. Quoted analyst interpretations remain attributed and are not independent causal measurements."
    },
    {
      "key": "annual",
      "name": "Original 2025 construction tables",
      "url": "https://media.apchq.com/YGIMDZ8KRaWwV53eZ22fpw/2025-12-mec-mensuel-et-t4-2025.pdf",
      "publisher": "APCHQ, reporting CMHC Starts and Completions Survey",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "2025 actual starts versus 2024",
      "dateNote": "2025 actual starts versus 2024. Original tables and geographic labels checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:46:08.818781+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional",
        "provincial"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Municipality and CMA rows, pages 3 to 7",
      "verification": "Read original PDF table and labels. Actual unit starts, not building permits, completions or seasonally adjusted annual rates. Excluded erroneous July narrative that labels cumulative 31,376 as a seasonally adjusted rate."
    },
    {
      "key": "tenure",
      "name": "Original 2025 housing tenure tables",
      "url": "https://media.apchq.com/WtEqtsP0Q2Kh8o_L1u9tEg/26050-ea-26-com-bulletin-mise-en-chantier_v03.pdf",
      "publisher": "APCHQ, reporting CMHC Starts and Completions Survey",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "2025 actual starts by intended market",
      "dateNote": "2025 actual starts by intended market. Original tables and geographic labels checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:46:08.818781+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional",
        "provincial"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Saguenay or Shawinigan rows; table headings distinguish rental/cooperative, ownership and condominium",
      "verification": "Read original PDF table and labels. Actual unit starts, not building permits, completions or seasonally adjusted annual rates. Excluded erroneous July narrative that labels cumulative 31,376 as a seasonally adjusted rate."
    },
    {
      "key": "july",
      "name": "Original July 2026 construction tables",
      "url": "https://media.apchq.com/EJSw3pXRSpWcPUadkWVkBg/2026-07-mec_mensuel-juillet-2026.pdf",
      "publisher": "APCHQ, reporting CMHC Starts and Completions Survey",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "January to July 2026 versus January to July 2025",
      "dateNote": "January to July 2026 versus January to July 2025. Original tables and geographic labels checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:46:08.818781+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional",
        "provincial"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Page 3, named CMA or agglomeration row",
      "verification": "Read original PDF table and labels. Actual unit starts, not building permits, completions or seasonally adjusted annual rates. Excluded erroneous July narrative that labels cumulative 31,376 as a seasonally adjusted rate."
    },
    {
      "key": "boc",
      "name": "Bank of Canada September decision",
      "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/",
      "publisher": "Bank of Canada",
      "publicationDate": "2026-09-02",
      "observationPeriod": "September 2, 2026 policy decision and financial conditions since July",
      "dateNote": "Published September 2, 2026. Primary source checked in shared national packet.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:11:03.389512+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "national"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Policy decision and Financial conditions paragraphs",
      "verification": "Parent agent checked primary release; child independently opened official release and policy search."
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "c1-1",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "retained",
        "annual",
        "july"
      ],
      "explanation": "CMA and municipal geography reconciled. January-July annual comparison is not compared as a growth rate with a full year."
    },
    {
      "id": "c1-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "resale",
        "july"
      ],
      "explanation": "Original archive-to-current pipeline and resale timing join; listings, starts and median prices are separate measures."
    },
    {
      "id": "c2-1",
      "kind": "observation",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "retained",
        "tenure",
        "july"
      ],
      "explanation": "2025 intended-market counts verified against APCHQ original table; tenure differs from structural building type."
    },
    {
      "id": "c2-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "tenure",
        "july",
        "resale"
      ],
      "explanation": "Explicit unmeasured transmission mechanism; no claim of actual moves or completed units."
    },
    {
      "id": "c3-1",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "retained",
        "resale",
        "tenure",
        "july"
      ],
      "explanation": "Separate observable rental and resale outcomes, conditional on unmeasured 2026 tenure and completion schedule."
    },
    {
      "id": "c3-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "resale",
        "boc"
      ],
      "explanation": "National and provincial mechanisms weighed against explicit local counterevidence."
    }
  ],
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "claimId": "c3-1",
      "horizon": "Through June 30, 2027",
      "assumptions": [
        "Meaningful rental share in new construction",
        "Timely completion of the pipeline"
      ],
      "upside": "Rental choice improves while resale supply remains below historical levels.",
      "downside": "Strong absorption, ownership-heavy starts or delays prevent rental easing.",
      "changeSignals": [
        "Next rental vacancy observation and documented concessions",
        "2026 tenure and completion counts",
        "Resale listings versus ten-year seasonal comparison"
      ],
      "confidence": "low",
      "confidenceReason": "Timing contrast is observed, but future tenure and delivery are unresolved."
    }
  ],
  "review": {
    "factual": true,
    "editorial": true,
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:46:08.818781+00:00",
    "articleSha256": "b221f0a68bfc4f98762dc79574fabc276e9f3006e1f4cba390bf5180bc591ac9"
  },
  "insightReview": {
    "articleSha256": "b221f0a68bfc4f98762dc79574fabc276e9f3006e1f4cba390bf5180bc591ac9",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:46:08.818781+00:00",
    "findings": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c1-1",
          "c1-2",
          "c2-2"
        ],
        "observationIds": [
          "old-pipeline",
          "resale-scarcity"
        ],
        "ordinaryInterpretation": "Last year's construction decline means the local supply response is still weakening.",
        "additionalFinding": "The retained 2025 decline and Q2 resale scarcity now coexist with an 88% rise in January-July starts. The signal is a timing gap between future construction supply and current resale pressure, not continuing construction contraction.",
        "archiveContribution": "Earlier retained construction and resale observations supply the baseline and reveal why a current price headline or an old construction summary gives an incomplete outlook.",
        "localConsequence": "Differentiate future rental delivery from current resale negotiation conditions.",
        "counterEvidence": "Sales and prices remain firm; the 2026 tenure mix and completion schedule are unknown.",
        "missingLinks": [
          "2026 tenure, project-level completion dates, rental absorption and matched household moves."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "removedOrDemoted": [
      "Removed the assumption that starts are completed homes or buildings.",
      "Removed any direct conversion of rental supply into houses for sale.",
      "Rejected the July APCHQ narrative mislabelling cumulative starts as an annualized rate."
    ]
  },
  "definitionReview": {
    "articleSha256": "b221f0a68bfc4f98762dc79574fabc276e9f3006e1f4cba390bf5180bc591ac9",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:46:08.818781+00:00",
    "checks": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "title",
          "description",
          "lead",
          "c1-1",
          "c1-2",
          "c2-1",
          "c2-2",
          "c3-1"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "retained",
          "annual",
          "tenure",
          "july",
          "resale"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Named geographic rows, tenure headers, cumulative period labels and Q2 single-family metrics",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "meaning": "Actual starts, intended tenure and median transactions are distinct; no starts-to-completions conversion.",
        "reason": "Primary construction tables reconcile raw narrative labels; rolling estimates and unsourced ratios were omitted."
      },
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c3-2"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "resale",
          "boc"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Provincial employment commentary and September policy decision",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "meaning": "Macro mechanisms, not municipal employment or mortgage observations.",
        "reason": "Local causal impact remains conditional and counterevidence is included."
      }
    ]
  },
  "datasetFindings": [
    {
      "reportFile": "analysis.json",
      "reportSha256": "e61aae84bf9c5d0012688be8e706e3b87d4675deb4c26d002c48738a1b74bbd9",
      "claimIds": [
        "c1-1",
        "c1-2",
        "c2-2"
      ],
      "archiveContribution": "Earlier retained construction and resale observations supply the baseline and reveal why a current price headline or an old construction summary gives an incomplete outlook."
    }
  ],
  "causalChains": [
    {
      "claimId": "c2-2",
      "sources": [
        "retained",
        "tenure",
        "july",
        "resale"
      ],
      "mechanism": "The tenure and delivery date of a construction cohort determine which existing stock faces competition first.",
      "localExposure": "Saguenay rental and resale markets, with source boundaries explicitly identified.",
      "timeHorizon": "Late 2026 through June 2027",
      "counterEvidence": "Completions, household formation and movement between tenures can change the sequence.",
      "forecastImplication": "Predict a conditional rental-versus-resale timing difference, not uniform price relief."
    }
  ],
  "gaps": [
    "No complete project or completion cohort.",
    "No calibrated forecast model or claimed historical accuracy.",
    "Municipal, agglomeration and CMA boundaries are identified in the prose."
  ],
  "retrievalCoverage": {
    "initialLocalPageLimit": 100,
    "hasMore": true,
    "statement": "Initial association-based candidates are bounded discovery. Selected original captures and complete named-source histories were inspected; unrelated geography and generated narrative claims were excluded."
  },
  "sharedPacketRefs": [
    "shared/checked-national-context.json"
  ]
}