{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "kind": "city-market-research-evidence",
  "publication": {
    "id": "city-qc-2b8f136c-557a-43a1-855a-b9468aa1f439-eb3aebb84485",
    "batch": "edition-2026-09-07",
    "publicPath": "/markets/qc/qc-longueuil-market-outlook-2026-09-07",
    "sourceArticleSha256": "eb3aebb8448503b8249cc7891dead5067d7fa23788630f82ed0f80cd5874b85e",
    "publishedAtUtc": "2026-09-08T01:38:04.954934Z",
    "editorialLanguageCheck": "passed"
  },
  "cityId": "2b8f136c-557a-43a1-855a-b9468aa1f439",
  "city": "Longueuil",
  "province": "QC",
  "asOfUtc": "2026-09-07T16:00:00.1724277+00:00",
  "thesis": "More condos are available in parts of Longueuil even as fewer homes begin construction. The distinction matters because the city's flagship public housing announcement is still a future delivery story.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "key": "project",
      "name": "Pointe-de-Longueuil procurement announcement",
      "url": "https://www.canada.ca/en/housing-infrastructure-communities/news/2025/12/build-canada-homes-accelerates-affordable-housing-in-longueuil.html",
      "publisher": "Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "December 8, 2025",
      "dateNote": "December 8, 2025. Source checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:58:48.216103+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "national"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "5f2a1568-8d93-454b-998d-9aab30640436"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "First-phase and overall-site paragraphs",
      "verification": "Original retained government announcement read and compared with current government project page. December planned quantities remain explicitly historical; procurement is not completion. Current conflicting totals are omitted."
    },
    {
      "key": "resale",
      "name": "July metropolitan resale results",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/montreal-cma-adjustment-period-continues-condominium-market-in-balance/",
      "publisher": "Association professionnelle des courtiers immobiliers du Quebec",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "July 2026 versus July 2025",
      "dateNote": "July 2026 versus July 2025. Source checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:58:48.216103+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "83f63ba6-a6b0-4d6a-8969-7c754b94d565"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Condo inventory table, Vieux-Longueuil and Saint-Hubert",
      "verification": "Retained original read, source geography and period checked against current publisher text. Quoted analyst interpretations remain attributed and are not independent causal measurements."
    },
    {
      "key": "province",
      "name": "Quebec second-quarter context",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/quebecs-real-estate-market-gradually-rebalances-in-the-second-quarter/",
      "publisher": "Association professionnelle des courtiers immobiliers du Quebec",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "Q2 2026",
      "dateNote": "Q2 2026. Source checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:58:48.216103+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "provincial"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "7b0b434b-d5b5-4c6a-a67b-7c55f010cdde"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Employment and population commentary",
      "verification": "Retained original read, source geography and period checked against current publisher text. Quoted analyst interpretations remain attributed and are not independent causal measurements."
    },
    {
      "key": "boc",
      "name": "Bank of Canada September decision",
      "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/",
      "publisher": "Bank of Canada",
      "publicationDate": "2026-09-02",
      "observationPeriod": "September 2, 2026 policy decision and financial conditions since July",
      "dateNote": "Published September 2, 2026. Primary source checked in shared national packet.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:11:03.389512+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "national"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Policy decision and Financial conditions paragraphs",
      "verification": "Parent agent checked primary release; child independently opened official release and policy search."
    },
    {
      "key": "starts",
      "name": "July municipal housing starts",
      "url": "https://media.apchq.com/EJSw3pXRSpWcPUadkWVkBg/2026-07-mec_mensuel-juillet-2026.pdf",
      "publisher": "APCHQ reporting CMHC",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "January to July 2026 versus January to July 2025",
      "dateNote": "January to July 2026 versus January to July 2025. Checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:58:48.216103+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Page 3, Ville de Longueuil, cumulative columns",
      "verification": "Read original table headings and municipality row. Starts are not completions, permits, or annualized rates."
    },
    {
      "key": "annual",
      "name": "2025 municipal housing starts",
      "url": "https://media.apchq.com/YGIMDZ8KRaWwV53eZ22fpw/2025-12-mec-mensuel-et-t4-2025.pdf",
      "publisher": "APCHQ reporting CMHC",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "2025 versus 2024",
      "dateNote": "2025 versus 2024. Checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:58:48.216103+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Ville de Longueuil row",
      "verification": "Municipal starts 1,103 versus 1,755, not the larger agglomeration."
    },
    {
      "key": "status",
      "name": "Pointe-de-Longueuil current project stage",
      "url": "https://www.bch-mc.ca/build",
      "publisher": "Build Canada Homes",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "Project page checked September 7, 2026",
      "dateNote": "Project page checked September 7, 2026. Checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:58:48.216103+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Pointe-de-Longueuil, project stage and description",
      "verification": "Procurement remains the published stage. Page has conflicting 1,005 and 1,055 first-phase counts and a different wider-site total from the December release. No exact current total or quantified growth claim is accepted."
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "c1-1",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "resale",
        "starts"
      ],
      "explanation": "Named borough listing stocks and municipality cumulative starts are distinct populations. No claim that starts caused listings."
    },
    {
      "id": "c1-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "annual",
        "starts",
        "resale"
      ],
      "explanation": "Two comparable annual-change periods, not starts counted as available or occupied homes."
    },
    {
      "id": "c2-1",
      "kind": "observation",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "project",
        "status"
      ],
      "explanation": "Historical dated quantity, current published stage; conflicting current counts excluded rather than silently reconciled."
    },
    {
      "id": "c2-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "project",
        "status",
        "resale",
        "starts"
      ],
      "explanation": "Archive-derived policy-stage and resale-stock join; no assertion that all city supply comes from this project or that it has been cancelled."
    },
    {
      "id": "c3-1",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "resale",
        "starts",
        "project"
      ],
      "explanation": "Independent borough stock comparisons, no forecasted project completion date or price target."
    },
    {
      "id": "c3-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "province",
        "boc",
        "project",
        "resale"
      ],
      "explanation": "National and provincial financing-demand mechanism; no measured local job losses or claimed financing cause of construction decline."
    }
  ],
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "claimId": "c3-1",
      "horizon": "September 7, 2026 through March 31, 2027",
      "assumptions": [
        "No sharp recovery in household formation",
        "No substantial fixed mortgage cost decline"
      ],
      "upside": "Positive condo listing growth in each named borough in most of six forthcoming months.",
      "downside": "Faster household formation or cheaper fixed-rate financing could reverse the expected adjustment.",
      "changeSignals": [
        "Three consecutive negative annual listing comparisons in either borough",
        "Awarded contract and start date at Pointe-de-Longueuil"
      ],
      "confidence": "low",
      "confidenceReason": "The direction has identifiable premises but no calibrated causal model or forecast accuracy record."
    }
  ],
  "review": {
    "factual": true,
    "editorial": true,
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:58:48.216103+00:00",
    "articleSha256": "eb3aebb8448503b8249cc7891dead5067d7fa23788630f82ed0f80cd5874b85e"
  },
  "insightReview": {
    "articleSha256": "eb3aebb8448503b8249cc7891dead5067d7fa23788630f82ed0f80cd5874b85e",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:58:48.216103+00:00",
    "findings": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c1-1",
          "c2-2"
        ],
        "observationIds": [
          "announced-phase",
          "vieux-listings",
          "hubert-listings"
        ],
        "ordinaryInterpretation": "A large federal waterfront housing announcement explains improving local housing choice.",
        "additionalFinding": "The retained project-stage record and later borough listing table locate visible relief in resale stock while actual municipal construction is contracting; the public programme remains a later supply channel.",
        "archiveContribution": "Dated retained procurement scope and borough-level inventory observations prevent the flagship project and current resale adjustment from being conflated.",
        "localConsequence": "Condo sellers face competition already present, while rental delivery assumptions need a separate awarded-project timetable.",
        "counterEvidence": "Older projects can complete and a large new start can reverse the municipal total quickly.",
        "missingLinks": [
          "Current settled project count, awarded contract, occupancy schedule, 2026 tenure and completions."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "removedOrDemoted": [
      "Excluded WOWA source marked not relevant with unresolved period definitions.",
      "Rejected the claim that all waterfront homes are affordable or already delivered.",
      "Excluded contradictory current project totals."
    ]
  },
  "definitionReview": {
    "articleSha256": "eb3aebb8448503b8249cc7891dead5067d7fa23788630f82ed0f80cd5874b85e",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:58:48.216103+00:00",
    "checks": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
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          "description",
          "lead",
          "c1-1",
          "c1-2",
          "c2-2",
          "c3-1"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "resale",
          "starts",
          "annual"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Borough inventory rows and municipal starts columns",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "meaning": "Listings are stocks of condos for sale; starts are units begun in specified periods.",
        "reason": "No borough or regional measure substituted for citywide conditions."
      },
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c2-1",
          "c2-2",
          "c3-1"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "project",
          "status"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Dated federal phase and current BCH stage",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "meaning": "Historical phase 1,055 with 40% non-market; current total inconsistent and therefore not asserted.",
        "reason": "No completion forecast based on an announcement."
      },
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c3-2"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "province",
          "boc",
          "project"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Provincial commentary and national decision",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "meaning": "Conditional public/private funding divergence.",
        "reason": "No local causal measurement or universal borrowing rate claimed."
      }
    ]
  },
  "datasetFindings": [
    {
      "reportFile": "analysis.json",
      "reportSha256": "adcfa4eb3536071307107924c740f1c3416077d2e0c379a0a830306112299aee",
      "claimIds": [
        "c1-1",
        "c2-2"
      ],
      "archiveContribution": "Dated retained procurement scope and borough-level inventory observations prevent the flagship project and current resale adjustment from being conflated."
    }
  ],
  "causalChains": [
    {
      "claimId": "c2-2",
      "sources": [
        "project",
        "resale",
        "starts",
        "status"
      ],
      "mechanism": "Existing resale competition can rise during a construction slowdown; publicly financed future supply affects a later delivery cycle.",
      "localExposure": "Vieux-Longueuil and Saint-Hubert condo markets, plus the municipal construction pipeline.",
      "timeHorizon": "Late 2026 through March 2027",
      "counterEvidence": "Fast procurement or completions from older projects could restore supply faster.",
      "forecastImplication": "Track present resale stock separately from public-project delivery."
    }
  ],
  "gaps": [
    "No settled current Pointe-de-Longueuil unit total.",
    "No complete municipal completion or tenure series.",
    "Forecasts are uncalibrated and no outcome is yet due."
  ],
  "retrievalCoverage": {
    "initialLocalPageLimit": 100,
    "hasMore": true,
    "statement": "Initial association-based candidates are bounded discovery. Selected original captures and complete named-source histories were inspected; unrelated geography and generated narrative claims were excluded."
  },
  "sharedPacketRefs": [
    "shared/checked-national-context.json"
  ]
}