{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "kind": "city-market-research-evidence",
  "publication": {
    "id": "city-qc-b8223ed7-1361-4985-ba9f-72ace1ddc197-3118dba90f37",
    "batch": "edition-2026-09-07",
    "publicPath": "/markets/qc/qc-levis-market-outlook-2026-09-07",
    "sourceArticleSha256": "3118dba90f37ef80ed54f1e5db6408ceb496d53d61d4386b1062ae0b8ce8669e",
    "publishedAtUtc": "2026-09-08T01:38:04.954934Z",
    "editorialLanguageCheck": "passed"
  },
  "cityId": "b8223ed7-1361-4985-ba9f-72ace1ddc197",
  "city": "Levis",
  "province": "QC",
  "asOfUtc": "2026-09-07T16:00:00.1724277+00:00",
  "thesis": "The South Shore's resale recovery and L\u00e9vis's construction slowdown are unfolding together. That timing matters more locally than a metropolitan price headline that partly reflects where homes are selling.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "key": "april",
      "name": "Quebec City metropolitan resale results for April",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/quebec-city-cma-visible-rise-in-listings-yet-shortages-continue-to-put-pressure-on-the-market/",
      "publisher": "Association professionnelle des courtiers immobiliers du Quebec",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "April 2026 versus April 2025",
      "dateNote": "April 2026 versus April 2025. Source checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:50:53.720776+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "f263999c-3516-4bfd-b3ea-81a71d624269"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "South Shore sales comparison",
      "verification": "Retained original read, source geography and period checked against current publisher text. Quoted analyst interpretations remain attributed and are not independent causal measurements."
    },
    {
      "key": "july",
      "name": "Quebec City metropolitan resale results for July",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/quebec-city-cma-the-markets-exceptional-performance-softens/",
      "publisher": "Association professionnelle des courtiers immobiliers du Quebec",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "July 2026 versus July 2025",
      "dateNote": "July 2026 versus July 2025. Source checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:50:53.720776+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "abc3c19b-b31b-43fd-96e7-90699f4d81fe"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "South Shore sales and median-price composition explanation",
      "verification": "Retained original read, source geography and period checked against current publisher text. Quoted analyst interpretations remain attributed and are not independent causal measurements."
    },
    {
      "key": "quebec",
      "name": "Quebec second-quarter context",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/quebecs-real-estate-market-gradually-rebalances-in-the-second-quarter/",
      "publisher": "Association professionnelle des courtiers immobiliers du Quebec",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "Q2 2026",
      "dateNote": "Q2 2026. Source checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:50:53.720776+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "provincial"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "7b0b434b-d5b5-4c6a-a67b-7c55f010cdde"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Employment and household demand commentary",
      "verification": "Retained original read, source geography and period checked against current publisher text. Quoted analyst interpretations remain attributed and are not independent causal measurements."
    },
    {
      "key": "boc",
      "name": "Bank of Canada September decision",
      "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/",
      "publisher": "Bank of Canada",
      "publicationDate": "2026-09-02",
      "observationPeriod": "September 2, 2026 policy decision and financial conditions since July",
      "dateNote": "Published September 2, 2026. Primary source checked in shared national packet.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:11:03.389512+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "national"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Policy decision and Financial conditions paragraphs",
      "verification": "Parent agent checked primary release; child independently opened official release and policy search."
    },
    {
      "key": "annual",
      "name": "2025 municipal construction results",
      "url": "https://media.apchq.com/YGIMDZ8KRaWwV53eZ22fpw/2025-12-mec-mensuel-et-t4-2025.pdf",
      "publisher": "APCHQ reporting CMHC",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "2025 versus 2024",
      "dateNote": "2025 versus 2024. Actual municipal starts; checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:50:53.720776+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Page 6, Ville de Levis and Ville de Quebec",
      "verification": "Read original rows and cumulative column headings; units started are not completed homes or building permits."
    },
    {
      "key": "starts",
      "name": "July municipal construction results",
      "url": "https://media.apchq.com/EJSw3pXRSpWcPUadkWVkBg/2026-07-mec_mensuel-juillet-2026.pdf",
      "publisher": "APCHQ reporting CMHC",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "January to July 2026 versus January to July 2025",
      "dateNote": "January to July 2026 versus January to July 2025. Actual municipal starts; checked September 7, 2026.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:50:53.720776+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Page 3, Ville de Levis and Ville de Quebec",
      "verification": "Read original rows and cumulative column headings; units started are not completed homes or building permits."
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "c1-1",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "april",
        "july"
      ],
      "explanation": "Each monthly percentage is year over year; no direct seasonally adjusted April-to-July growth calculation or city substitution."
    },
    {
      "id": "c1-2",
      "kind": "observation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "annual",
        "starts"
      ],
      "explanation": "Actual municipal units begun, separate full-year and cumulative periods; no inference of financing as sole cause."
    },
    {
      "id": "c2-1",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "july"
      ],
      "explanation": "Publisher's mix explanation is attributed; no city-level median or repeat-sales index invented."
    },
    {
      "id": "c2-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "april",
        "july",
        "annual",
        "starts"
      ],
      "explanation": "Original cross-period demand-location and municipal start comparison; completion lag and boundary limits explicit."
    },
    {
      "id": "c3-1",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "april",
        "july",
        "annual",
        "starts"
      ],
      "explanation": "Two separately measurable predictions; regional demand and municipal construction remain distinct populations."
    },
    {
      "id": "c3-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "quebec",
        "boc",
        "july"
      ],
      "explanation": "Macro-to-local affordability mechanism, not a measured buyer migration flow."
    }
  ],
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "claimId": "c3-1",
      "horizon": "Construction to December 31, 2026; relative sales through June 30, 2027",
      "assumptions": [
        "No large late-year construction start",
        "No abrupt change in household demand"
      ],
      "upside": "South Shore retains relative sales strength.",
      "downside": "Regional demand weakens or Levis construction unexpectedly accelerates.",
      "changeSignals": [
        "Year-end Levis cumulative starts versus 2025",
        "Next two quarterly South Shore-versus-Quebec agglomeration sales comparisons"
      ],
      "confidence": "low",
      "confidenceReason": "Two dated regional observations and a municipal construction trend support the calls, but geographical and completion gaps remain."
    }
  ],
  "review": {
    "factual": true,
    "editorial": true,
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:50:53.720776+00:00",
    "articleSha256": "3118dba90f37ef80ed54f1e5db6408ceb496d53d61d4386b1062ae0b8ce8669e"
  },
  "insightReview": {
    "articleSha256": "3118dba90f37ef80ed54f1e5db6408ceb496d53d61d4386b1062ae0b8ce8669e",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:50:53.720776+00:00",
    "findings": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c1-1",
          "c2-2"
        ],
        "observationIds": [
          "south-april",
          "south-july"
        ],
        "ordinaryInterpretation": "Soft regional price growth means South Shore demand has weakened and construction will track the capital-region rebound.",
        "additionalFinding": "Retained monthly records show South Shore sales switching from decline to growth while the later municipal construction data show Levis still beginning fewer homes. The regional median is also affected by the location mix of sales.",
        "archiveContribution": "The retained April and July observations identify the geographic shift and its timing, which cannot be inferred from the latest metropolitan median alone.",
        "localConsequence": "Levis needs its own completion and absorption assessment before a softer regional price headline is interpreted as more local choice.",
        "counterEvidence": "Demand data cover a larger South Shore sector; starts omit completions from earlier projects.",
        "missingLinks": [
          "Levis-specific resale series, tenure, completions and absorption."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "removedOrDemoted": [
      "Excluded the generic 2024 Appartogo price estimate and unverified assertions of easy commuting.",
      "Removed conversion of a softer regional median into local home-price depreciation."
    ]
  },
  "definitionReview": {
    "articleSha256": "3118dba90f37ef80ed54f1e5db6408ceb496d53d61d4386b1062ae0b8ce8669e",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:50:53.720776+00:00",
    "checks": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "title",
          "description",
          "lead",
          "c1-1",
          "c1-2",
          "c2-1",
          "c2-2",
          "c3-1"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "april",
          "july",
          "annual",
          "starts"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Geographic sales paragraphs and APCHQ municipal cumulative rows",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "meaning": "Sales geography is South Shore; starts geography is Levis municipality; median change can reflect mix.",
        "reason": "No regional percentage assigned to the city, no starts-to-completions conversion."
      },
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c3-2",
          "c3-1"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "quebec",
          "boc",
          "july"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Provincial demand commentary and September policy release",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "meaning": "Conditional household affordability mechanism.",
        "reason": "No municipal job or migration figure inferred."
      }
    ]
  },
  "datasetFindings": [
    {
      "reportFile": "analysis.json",
      "reportSha256": "2afc4248ff12c48eb61d2db83bcaff0f20c73b1ea515b011a8cbf778159e720d",
      "claimIds": [
        "c1-1",
        "c2-2"
      ],
      "archiveContribution": "The retained April and July observations identify the geographic shift and its timing, which cannot be inferred from the latest metropolitan median alone."
    }
  ],
  "causalChains": [
    {
      "claimId": "c2-2",
      "sources": [
        "april",
        "july",
        "annual",
        "starts"
      ],
      "mechanism": "Demand shifting toward a relatively affordable subregion can arrive before a shrinking municipal construction pipeline replenishes stock.",
      "localExposure": "Levis within the broader South Shore sales area.",
      "timeHorizon": "Late 2026 through June 2027",
      "counterEvidence": "Existing projects may complete and regional demand may not be concentrated in Levis.",
      "forecastImplication": "Separate the regional sales call from the municipal start call."
    }
  ],
  "gaps": [
    "Regional resale data do not establish Levis municipal demand.",
    "No municipal completion or absorption series.",
    "No claim of a property-specific price change."
  ],
  "retrievalCoverage": {
    "initialLocalPageLimit": 100,
    "hasMore": true,
    "statement": "Initial association-based candidates are bounded discovery. Selected original captures and complete named-source histories were inspected; unrelated geography and generated narrative claims were excluded."
  },
  "sharedPacketRefs": [
    "shared/checked-national-context.json"
  ]
}