{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "kind": "city-market-research-evidence",
  "publication": {
    "id": "city-qc-f507bc10-a631-4775-9bea-2a07bef32aac-eb727b0763b8",
    "batch": "edition-2026-09-07",
    "publicPath": "/markets/qc/qc-gatineau-market-outlook-2026-09-07",
    "sourceArticleSha256": "eb727b0763b8cfc867f017fdfc118128e19200de544235f547196d2e2311dfc5",
    "publishedAtUtc": "2026-09-08T01:38:04.954934Z",
    "editorialLanguageCheck": "passed"
  },
  "cityId": "f507bc10-a631-4775-9bea-2a07bef32aac",
  "city": "Gatineau",
  "province": "QC",
  "asOfUtc": "2026-09-07T16:00:00.1724277+00:00",
  "thesis": "Gatineau's housing adjustment is becoming more persistent and more uneven. The archive shows rising supply across three successive releases, while the latest barometer reveals a much sharper correction in condominiums than in houses. The broad seller-market label is becoming a less useful guide to an individual negotiation.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "key": "q4",
      "name": "Gatineau Q4 2025 release",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/gatineau-residential-real-estate-market-year-end-slowdown-but-a-positive-2025-overall/",
      "publisher": "Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers and Chambre immobiliere de l'Outaouais",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "Q4 2025, released January 13, 2026",
      "dateNote": "Q4 2025, released January 13, 2026; retained capture 2026-09-03T18:08:06.7493569 UTC. Original release dates checked in body.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:16:15.352318+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "0ba25496-3e2b-4d62-a425-8f791329c0f7"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Activity, active listings and segment paragraphs",
      "verification": "Archived original and current primary release checked, including the current barometer PDF."
    },
    {
      "key": "q1",
      "name": "Gatineau Q1 2026 release",
      "url": "https://apciqca-152af.kxcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2026/04/cp-trimestriel-gatineau-2026-T1-en.pdf",
      "publisher": "Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers and Chambre immobiliere de l'Outaouais",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "Q1 2026, released April 15, 2026",
      "dateNote": "Q1 2026, released April 15, 2026; retained capture 2026-08-03T15:43:59.817167 UTC. Original release dates checked in body.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:16:15.352318+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "6ef5422b-6dcf-4a88-8288-8936c77fa703"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Page 1: listings, marketing times and CIO explanation",
      "verification": "Archived original and current primary release checked, including the current barometer PDF."
    },
    {
      "key": "q2",
      "name": "Quebec and Gatineau Q2 2026 release",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/quebecs-real-estate-market-gradually-rebalances-in-the-second-quarter/",
      "publisher": "Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers and Chambre immobiliere de l'Outaouais",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "Q2 2026, released July 14, 2026",
      "dateNote": "Q2 2026, released July 14, 2026; retained capture 2026-09-03T05:36:58.3694575 UTC. Original release dates checked in body.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:16:15.352318+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional",
        "provincial"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "7b0b434b-d5b5-4c6a-a67b-7c55f010cdde"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Gatineau CMA and provincial market sections",
      "verification": "Archived original and current primary release checked, including the current barometer PDF."
    },
    {
      "key": "barometer",
      "name": "Gatineau Q2 2026 residential barometer",
      "url": "https://com.apciq.ca/sam/pdf/bar/2026/202602-bar-gatineau_an.pdf",
      "publisher": "Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "Q2 2026 compared with Q2 2025",
      "dateNote": "Q2 2026 edition. Pages 1 and 12 checked; local PDF retained.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:16:15.352318+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Page 1 category chart and page 12 definitions",
      "verification": "PDF downloaded from the linked official endpoint and page 1 visually inspected; definitions read in English/French."
    },
    {
      "key": "boc",
      "name": "Bank of Canada September decision",
      "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/",
      "publisher": "Bank of Canada",
      "publicationDate": "2026-09-02",
      "observationPeriod": "September 2, 2026",
      "dateNote": "Primary September 2 policy decision checked in shared national packet.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:16:15.352318+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "national"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Policy rate and Financial conditions paragraphs"
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "c1-1",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "q4",
        "q1",
        "q2",
        "barometer"
      ],
      "explanation": "Three original retained releases read and joined; period and geography definitions checked on barometer page 12. Lead persistence claim derives from this sequence."
    },
    {
      "id": "c2-1",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "q1",
        "barometer"
      ],
      "explanation": "Chart categories and year-over-year footnote visually verified. Corrects release typo comparing Q2 2026 with itself. Marketing time is mean, not median; prices reflect transaction mix."
    },
    {
      "id": "c2-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "barometer",
        "q4",
        "q1",
        "q2"
      ],
      "explanation": "Barometer page 12 defines inventory and months of inventory as 12-month averages. This is a measurement-lag interpretation, not proof of a future price fall."
    },
    {
      "id": "c3-1",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "q1",
        "barometer"
      ],
      "explanation": "The causal premises are attributed CIO views and specific local condo observations; migration magnitude and buyer origin remain unmeasured."
    },
    {
      "id": "c3-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "q2",
        "boc"
      ],
      "explanation": "Provincial and local percentage changes use the same quarter/year comparison but different geographic populations. No quantified mortgage-rate change is asserted."
    },
    {
      "id": "c4-1",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "section": 3,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "q1",
        "q2",
        "barometer",
        "boc"
      ],
      "explanation": "Distinct segment forecast registered in this draft now. No numerical price target or invented confidence probability; measurable next-quarter falsifier."
    }
  ],
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "claimId": "c4-1",
      "horizon": "Through March 31, 2027, evaluated against the next two quarterly barometers",
      "assumptions": [
        "Employment remains broadly resilient",
        "Cross-river affordability continues attracting buyers"
      ],
      "upside": "Condo sales recover while active listings fall.",
      "downside": "Weaker employment or higher fixed mortgage offers spread pressure into houses.",
      "changeSignals": [
        "Condo-to-house gap in year-over-year active-listing growth",
        "Condo sales recovery and declining stock"
      ],
      "confidence": "moderate",
      "confidenceReason": "Three retained quarterly releases show persistence; causal buyer and migration composition remains unmeasured."
    }
  ],
  "review": {
    "factual": true,
    "editorial": true,
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:16:15.352318+00:00",
    "articleSha256": "eb727b0763b8cfc867f017fdfc118128e19200de544235f547196d2e2311dfc5"
  },
  "insightReview": {
    "articleSha256": "eb727b0763b8cfc867f017fdfc118128e19200de544235f547196d2e2311dfc5",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:16:15.352318+00:00",
    "findings": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c1-1",
          "c2-1"
        ],
        "observationIds": [
          "q4-supply",
          "q1-supply",
          "q2-supply",
          "migration-exposure"
        ],
        "ordinaryInterpretation": "Gatineau prices are merely stabilizing in a seller market.",
        "additionalFinding": "Three retained releases show an accelerating year-over-year supply increase, from 14% to 18% to 30%, while condominium time on market deteriorates relative to houses and plexes. The condo adjustment has persisted across successive seasonal periods.",
        "archiveContribution": "The Q4 and Q1 releases establish persistence before the latest Q2 observation; the current barometer alone supplies only the latest cross-section. The original Q1 CIO explanation identifies local migration exposure and the Ottawa affordability offset.",
        "localConsequence": "Condo sellers face a different negotiating trajectory from house and small-income-property sellers, even within one cross-border labour and housing market.",
        "counterEvidence": "House marketing times remain short; broad local weakness cannot be inferred from condos. Year-over-year rates have changing denominators.",
        "missingLinks": [
          "No matched local household migration or buyer-origin data; no claim that departures caused the condominium sales decline."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "removedOrDemoted": [
      "Removed unsupported attribution of condominium weakness to international-student departures alone.",
      "Removed implication that 2,007 active listings is an end-of-quarter count.",
      "Corrected source typo: condo -5% comparison is year over year, confirmed by chart."
    ]
  },
  "definitionReview": {
    "articleSha256": "eb727b0763b8cfc867f017fdfc118128e19200de544235f547196d2e2311dfc5",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:16:15.352318+00:00",
    "checks": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "title",
          "description",
          "lead",
          "c1-1"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "q4",
          "q1",
          "q2",
          "barometer"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Three dated release supply paragraphs; barometer page 12 Active listings and Change in rates",
        "outcome": "verified",
        "meaning": "Quarterly mean of month-end active listings; rates compare same prior-year quarter. Roster city narrative uses explicitly labelled CMA evidence.",
        "reason": "14%,18%,30% sequence read from retained originals. Does not imply these rates can be compounded."
      },
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c2-1",
          "c2-2",
          "c4-1"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "q1",
          "q2",
          "barometer"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Barometer page 1 category chart, year-over-year footnote; page 12 Days on market and Market conditions",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "meaning": "Condo sales -31%, active listings +58%, median -5% to $308,000; mean selling time and rolling 12-month market classification.",
        "reason": "Both release languages contain a comparison-year typo. The chart footnote resolves Q2 2025 comparison. No evidence that each condo depreciated 5%."
      },
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c3-1",
          "c4-1"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "q1",
          "barometer"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Q1 press release page 1 CIO quotations",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "meaning": "Attributed market explanation of non-permanent-resident departures and Ottawa affordability, not a measured causal decomposition.",
        "reason": "No migration count or buyer origin claimed."
      },
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c3-2",
          "c4-1"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "q2",
          "boc"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Provincial and Gatineau sales paragraphs; September 2 policy release",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "meaning": "Same quarter provincial/local sales comparison; national rate/yield conditions with unmeasured mortgage pass-through.",
        "reason": "Forecast assumptions remain explicit and no provincial average becomes a local mortgage offer."
      }
    ]
  },
  "datasetFindings": [
    {
      "reportFile": "analysis.json",
      "reportSha256": "42c2253b300054ca40095cf9f488fad922f582ba03ac87b7d01c5b352bace6e4",
      "claimIds": [
        "c1-1",
        "c2-1"
      ],
      "archiveContribution": "The Q4 and Q1 releases establish persistence before the latest Q2 observation; the current barometer alone supplies only the latest cross-section. The original Q1 CIO explanation identifies local migration exposure and the Ottawa affordability offset."
    }
  ],
  "causalChains": [
    {
      "claimId": "c3-1",
      "sources": [
        "q1",
        "q2"
      ],
      "mechanism": "Local departures can reduce rental and entry-level absorption while Ottawa price differences sustain a distinct ownership-buyer pool.",
      "localExposure": "Gatineau CMA condos and cross-river home shoppers.",
      "timeHorizon": "Late 2026 through March 2027",
      "counterEvidence": "Resilient house and plex marketing times and continued affordability-driven buyers.",
      "forecastImplication": "Expect greater condo adjustment without forecasting a uniform decline across property types."
    }
  ],
  "gaps": [
    "CMA coverage includes the city and surrounding municipalities.",
    "No migration-to-transaction causal matching, neighbourhood completion schedule or repeat-sales price analysis.",
    "The source release has a comparison-year typo resolved against the chart.",
    "Forecast has no completed outcome period and remains unpublished."
  ],
  "retrievalCoverage": {
    "initialLocalPageLimit": 100,
    "hasMore": true,
    "statement": "Initial association-based candidates are bounded discovery. Selected original captures and complete named-source histories were inspected; unrelated geography and generated narrative claims were excluded."
  },
  "sharedPacketRefs": [
    "shared/checked-national-context.json"
  ]
}