{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "kind": "city-market-research-evidence",
  "publication": {
    "id": "city-qc-8096e3cd-6c8e-4dae-9014-a22219bc2426-9d0220b41da5",
    "batch": "edition-2026-09-07",
    "publicPath": "/markets/qc/qc-drummondville-market-outlook-2026-09-07",
    "sourceArticleSha256": "9d0220b41da562a112d8b59f1adce3c15a53cd82dd2b2fff6d97fa8ebd1d4cd2",
    "publishedAtUtc": "2026-09-08T01:38:04.954934Z",
    "editorialLanguageCheck": "passed"
  },
  "cityId": "8096e3cd-6c8e-4dae-9014-a22219bc2426",
  "city": "Drummondville",
  "province": "QC",
  "asOfUtc": "2026-09-07T16:00:00.1724277+00:00",
  "thesis": "A home that sells quickly can sit in a market that is becoming less competitive. Drummondville is starting to show that combination: the archive traces a widening supply rebound while completed sales still spend little time on the market.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "key": "q1",
      "name": "Q1 2026 regional market release",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/des-marches-toujours-sous-pression-au-debut-de-2026-dans-les-rmr-de-sherbrooke-trois-rivieres-et-drummondville/",
      "publisher": "Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers; CIEMCQ for the Q1 three-CMA release",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "Q1 2026 versus Q1 2025, published April 15, 2026",
      "dateNote": "Q1 2026 versus Q1 2025, published April 15, 2026; original publication date in the release body, distinct from retained capture 2026-08-03T14:27:35.7124914 UTC.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "e7b0bc6e-39f3-4aba-a1ae-fe68d5583ce0"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Drummondville CMA section; provincial context separately scoped",
      "verification": "Entire relevant original-language source section read in retained raw text and the current primary release on September 7, 2026. Quarterly listing definition checked in APCIQ barometer."
    },
    {
      "key": "q2",
      "name": "Q2 2026 provincial and regional market release",
      "url": "https://apciq.ca/en/quebecs-real-estate-market-gradually-rebalances-in-the-second-quarter/",
      "publisher": "Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers; CIEMCQ for the Q1 three-CMA release",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025, published July 14, 2026",
      "dateNote": "Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025, published July 14, 2026; original publication date in the release body, distinct from retained capture 2026-09-03T05:36:58.3694575 UTC.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional",
        "provincial"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "7b0b434b-d5b5-4c6a-a67b-7c55f010cdde"
      ],
      "sourceLocator": "Drummondville CMA section; provincial context separately scoped",
      "verification": "Entire relevant original-language source section read in retained raw text and the current primary release on September 7, 2026. Quarterly listing definition checked in APCIQ barometer."
    },
    {
      "key": "boc",
      "name": "Bank of Canada September decision",
      "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/",
      "publisher": "Bank of Canada",
      "publicationDate": "2026-09-02",
      "observationPeriod": "September 2, 2026",
      "dateNote": "September 2 decision. Current primary source checked in shared national packet.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "national"
      ],
      "recordIds": [],
      "sourceLocator": "Overnight target and Financial conditions paragraphs"
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "c1-1",
      "kind": "observation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "q1",
        "q2"
      ],
      "explanation": "Q1 French Drummondville section and Q2 English Drummondville section read. The change in category participation is the original retained comparison."
    },
    {
      "id": "c1-2",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "q1",
        "q2"
      ],
      "explanation": "Source join distinguishes breadth of supply change from an already-published single-quarter headline."
    },
    {
      "id": "c2-1",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "q2"
      ],
      "explanation": "Exact mean days and year-over-year price growth checked; survivor composition is a measurement distinction, not a claim to know rejected asking prices."
    },
    {
      "id": "c3-1",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "q2",
        "boc"
      ],
      "explanation": "Provincial labour interpretation is attributed, not asserted as measured city job loss. Rate/yield transmission conditional on actual financing offers."
    },
    {
      "id": "c4-1",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "section": 3,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "q1",
        "q2",
        "boc"
      ],
      "explanation": "Specific sales-versus-house-stock comparison, horizon and falsifier. No unsupported numerical price forecast."
    }
  ],
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "claimId": "c4-1",
      "horizon": "Through March 31, 2027",
      "assumptions": [
        "Provincial demand slowdown persists",
        "Borrowing costs do not fall sharply"
      ],
      "upside": "Buyer revival absorbs supply without broad price declines.",
      "downside": "Employment weakness increases negotiating pressure.",
      "changeSignals": [
        "House active listings versus house sales in next two quarterly barometers",
        "Sales growth with flat or declining house stock"
      ],
      "confidence": "low",
      "confidenceReason": "Supply broadening is observed across two periods; future household finance and listing behaviour are unmeasured."
    }
  ],
  "review": {
    "factual": true,
    "editorial": true,
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
    "articleSha256": "9d0220b41da562a112d8b59f1adce3c15a53cd82dd2b2fff6d97fa8ebd1d4cd2"
  },
  "insightReview": {
    "articleSha256": "9d0220b41da562a112d8b59f1adce3c15a53cd82dd2b2fff6d97fa8ebd1d4cd2",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
    "findings": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "c1-2"
        ],
        "ordinaryInterpretation": "Short selling times mean Drummondville remains uniformly competitive.",
        "additionalFinding": "The retained Q1 plex-led supply rebound broadens to houses in Q2 while sales decline for a third quarter; quick sold-home turnover does not measure the unsold stock.",
        "archiveContribution": "Two retained quarterly releases distinguish an emerging broadening from a one-period supply headline.",
        "localConsequence": "House sellers face increasing comparable choices even when successful transactions close quickly.",
        "counterEvidence": "House median prices still rose and sold days shortened; this is not proof of falling same-home values.",
        "missingLinks": [
          "No asking-price reductions, matched listings or local employment microdata."
        ],
        "observationIds": [
          "winter-supply",
          "spring-breadth"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "removedOrDemoted": [
      "Removed inference that fast sold days proves a uniformly strong market.",
      "No quarter-on-quarter seasonal change or same-home appreciation inferred."
    ]
  },
  "definitionReview": {
    "articleSha256": "9d0220b41da562a112d8b59f1adce3c15a53cd82dd2b2fff6d97fa8ebd1d4cd2",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Quebec and Prairies research agent; source-definition and continuous prose review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T16:22:52.272039+00:00",
    "checks": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "title",
          "description",
          "lead",
          "c1-1",
          "c1-2",
          "c2-1",
          "c3-1",
          "c4-1"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "q1",
          "q2",
          "boc"
        ],
        "sourceLocator": "Named city sections of the listed dated releases; provincial highlights and September 2 Bank decision",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "meaning": "Centris brokered residential sales in the explicitly named CMA. Quarterly active listings average month-end stocks; median prices reflect sold-property mix; days on market are means. Each change is year over year unless explicitly described otherwise.",
        "reason": "The retained Q1 plex-led supply rebound broadens to houses in Q2 while sales decline for a third quarter; quick sold-home turnover does not measure the unsold stock. House median prices still rose and sold days shortened; this is not proof of falling same-home values.",
        "period": "Dated periods identified separately in every comparison",
        "calculation": "Uses reported rates and qualitative cross-period joins; no compounding of year-over-year rates or conversion of medians to same-home appreciation."
      }
    ]
  },
  "datasetFindings": [
    {
      "reportFile": "analysis.json",
      "reportSha256": "802eeaef556fe91a1b626a5948e60d60a01726086807445141e222851a17d9d8",
      "claimIds": [
        "c1-2"
      ],
      "archiveContribution": "Two retained quarterly releases distinguish an emerging broadening from a one-period supply headline."
    }
  ],
  "causalChains": [
    {
      "claimId": "c3-1",
      "sources": [
        "q2",
        "boc"
      ],
      "mechanism": "Employment and mortgage constraints narrow financed demand as house supply broadens.",
      "localExposure": "Drummondville CMA house sellers and financed buyers.",
      "timeHorizon": "Late 2026 through March 2027",
      "counterEvidence": "Sales remain above their ten-year average and successful listings sell quickly.",
      "forecastImplication": "Expect negotiation to change before assuming a broad fall in prices."
    }
  ],
  "gaps": [
    "CMA is broader than municipal limits.",
    "Two-quarter source comparison is not a calibrated leading-indicator model.",
    "Forecast is unpublished and has no completed outcome window."
  ],
  "retrievalCoverage": {
    "initialLocalPageLimit": 100,
    "hasMore": true,
    "statement": "Initial association-based candidates are bounded discovery. Selected original captures and complete named-source histories were inspected; unrelated geography and generated narrative claims were excluded."
  },
  "sharedPacketRefs": [
    "shared/checked-national-context.json"
  ]
}