# L'Orée-des-Bois: Saguenay's Stable Market Faces Mortgage Renewal Headwinds Saguenay recorded 480 residential sales in the second quarter of 2026, up 3 per cent from the prior year, with an average sale price of $310,000. These city-level figures provide context for L'Orée-des-Bois, though no neighbourhood-specific transaction data is available to confirm local market conditions. Published 2026-10-11. Evidence snapshot 2026-10-12. ## Key facts and reporting periods - Price Growth: 5 percent. Property type: All. Scope: Saguenay, QC. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://courticonnect.ca/en/broker-saguenay) - Population: 3 people. Property type: All. Scope: Saguenay, QC. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://courticonnect.ca/en/broker-saguenay) - Average Sale Price: 310000 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Saguenay, QC. Reporting date: 2026-07-31. [Source](https://www.honestdoor.com/market-updates/post/jonquiere-saguenay-july-2026) - Sales Volume: 1 count. Property type: All. Scope: Saguenay, QC. Reporting date: 2026-07-31. [Source](https://www.honestdoor.com/market-updates/post/jonquiere-saguenay-july-2026) ## Market summary Saguenay recorded 480 residential sales in the second quarter of 2026, up 3 per cent from the prior year, with an average sale price of $310,000. These city-level figures provide context for L'Orée-des-Bois, though no neighbourhood-specific transaction data is available to confirm local market conditions. ## Central finding Saguenay's residential market shows stable activity with 480 sales in Q2 2026 and an average sale price of $310,000, but national financing pressures from pandemic-era mortgage renewals create affordability headwinds that may limit demand growth in smaller markets like L'Orée-des-Bois. Sources: [Quebec’s Real Estate Market Gradually Rebalances in the Second Quarter - APCIQ - Site web](https://apciq.ca/en/quebecs-real-estate-market-gradually-rebalances-in-the-second-quarter/) [Jonquiere, Saguenay - July 2026 Real Estate Report | HonestDoor](https://www.honestdoor.com/market-updates/post/jonquiere-saguenay-july-2026) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) ## How the numbers connect Saguenay's Q2 2026 sales volume of 480 represents a modest expansion over the prior year. Calculation: 480 sales / 1.03 = approximately 466 sales in the same quarter of 2025. Change = 480 - 466 = 14 additional sales. Definitions: Sales volume is the count of concluded residential transactions in Saguenay for the second quarter of 2026. The prior-year baseline is derived from the reported 3% year-over-year increase. Limit: This calculation applies to the city of Saguenay, not L'Orée-des-Bois. It does not establish neighbourhood-level transaction velocity or price effects. Sources: [Quebec’s Real Estate Market Gradually Rebalances in the Second Quarter - APCIQ - Site web](https://apciq.ca/en/quebecs-real-estate-market-gradually-rebalances-in-the-second-quarter/) ## Saguenay Market Stability Amidst National Financing Pressures The Saguenay residential market concluded 480 sales in the second quarter of 2026, a 3 per cent increase from the prior year, according to APCIQ data. The average sale price stood at $310,000 in July 2026, with price per square foot around $302, as reported by HonestDoor. These city-level figures indicate a stable market with modest activity growth, though they do not measure conditions specifically in L'Orée-des-Bois. Population growth in Saguenay reached 0.44 per cent year-over-year, with the census subdivision population estimated at 151,972 on July 1, 2025, up from 151,309 on July 1, 2024, per Statistics Canada. This modest demographic expansion suggests steady underlying demand for housing across the city. Sources: [Quebec’s Real Estate Market Gradually Rebalances in the Second Quarter - APCIQ - Site web](https://apciq.ca/en/quebecs-real-estate-market-gradually-rebalances-in-the-second-quarter/) [Jonquiere, Saguenay - July 2026 Real Estate Report | HonestDoor](https://www.honestdoor.com/market-updates/post/jonquiere-saguenay-july-2026) [Statistics Canada Table 17-10-0155-01](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710015501) ## Mortgage Renewal Wave Creates Affordability Headwinds Over the next year, the last of the five-year, fixed-rate mortgages taken out during the pandemic will come up for renewal, representing approximately 12 per cent of all outstanding Canadian mortgages, according to the Bank of Canada. On average, these borrowers can expect their monthly payments to increase by 15 per cent, as noted by Royal LePage. While national mortgage delinquency rates remain low at 0.24 per cent as of the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating most borrowers have absorbed higher payments, this renewal cycle reduces household disposable income and borrowing capacity. In price-sensitive markets like Saguenay, where average sale prices are significantly below national averages, even modest payment increases can constrain upgrade demand and limit the pool of qualified buyers. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25 per cent on September 2, 2026, keeping lenders' prime rate at 4.45 per cent and leaving variable mortgage payments unchanged for existing borrowers. As of September 18, 2026, the lowest available five-year fixed mortgage rate in Canada is 4.24 per cent, while two-year and three-year fixed rates remain below 4 per cent at 3.89 per cent and 3.94 per cent respectively, according to Ratehub. However, rising five-year Government of Canada bond yields near 3.65 per cent are exerting upward pressure on fixed rates, potentially pushing them higher in the coming weeks. This volatility creates uncertainty for prospective buyers in L'Orée-des-Bois who depend on financing to enter the market, as higher rates would reduce their qualifying capacity and potentially delay purchase decisions. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) ## Federal Infrastructure Funding Shapes Long-Term Supply Outlook The Government of Canada allocated $6 billion over 10 years for the Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund to support housing-enabling infrastructure, established by Budget 2024 on April 16, 2024. Under the Direct Delivery stream, projects must be substantially completed by September 2031, while those under the Provincial and Territorial Agreement stream have a completion deadline of September 2033. Communities with populations over 30,000 must implement zoning changes allowing four units as-of-right to qualify for CHIF funding. The Build Communities Strong Fund will provide $51 billion over 10 years starting in 2026-27, plus $3 billion annually ongoing, for public infrastructure including housing, transit, and climate adaptation. CMHC reports that Canada needs 187,000 to 238,000 homes built each year to close its supply gap, and construction is currently falling short of meeting demand. These federal initiatives aim to address chronic supply constraints that contribute to affordability challenges nationwide. While the long-term impact on Saguenay's housing stock depends on municipal planning decisions and project selection, the availability of substantial federal funding signals continued government commitment to expanding housing supply, which may gradually moderate price pressures in cities like Saguenay over the coming decade. Sources: [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html) [Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html) [Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals) ## The strongest counter-case National data shows the composite home price index fell 3% year-over-year in August 2026, suggesting broader price softness that could offset local stability. Additionally, fixed mortgage rates remain volatile due to trade-war uncertainty, which could further constrain buyer purchasing power if rates rise above current levels. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) ## Living here No amenities are mapped specifically within L'Orée-des-Bois. City-level amenities in Saguenay include schools such as École Saint-Denis and École Saint-Isidore, parks including Parc du Bassin and Parc de l'Assomption, transit stops like Jonquière and Dubuc/Saint-Paul, childcare facilities CPE Le Jardin de la Rivière and CPE La Cajolerie, and grocery stores Alimentation Claudin Da Silva and Marché Métro. Sources: [École Saint-Denis](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/352908247) ## The early signal The upcoming renewal of pandemic-era five-year fixed-rate mortgages, representing approximately 12% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages, with an expected average 15% increase in monthly payments. How it reaches the market: As pandemic-era five-year fixed mortgages come up for renewal, borrowers face higher monthly payments, reducing their disposable income and qualifying capacity for new purchases. This affects demand in price-sensitive markets where buyers rely on equity from previous homes. Typical lead time: Mortgage renewal cycles typically impact borrowing capacity 6-12 months before new purchase decisions, as borrowers assess their ability to qualify for new mortgages after refinancing existing ones. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) ## Next 3 months, through December 2026 Prices: flat. Flat to slightly rising prices in Saguenay, estimated at 0-2% increase. This is a city-level scenario, not a measured L'Orée-des-Bois result. Why: Saguenay's Q2 2026 sales volume of 480 (up 3% YoY) and average sale price of $310,000 suggest stable local demand. National fixed mortgage rates remain near 4.24% for five-year terms, providing predictable borrowing costs. The Bank of Canada's policy rate hold at 2.25% supports variable rate stability. However, these are city-level measures, not L'Orée-des-Bois specific outcomes. Buyers: either way. Buyers can act now if they have secured financing, as stable rates and moderate price growth support reasonable entry points. Waiting offers limited advantage unless rates decline significantly, which is uncertain given bond yield volatility. Sellers: list now. Sellers benefit from current stable demand and moderate price appreciation. Listing now captures the current market equilibrium before potential rate volatility impacts buyer confidence in late 2026. Watch: A measurable decrease in Saguenay's quarterly sales volume below 480 units, or a significant increase in national fixed mortgage rates above 4.5%, would indicate shifting market dynamics and potential price pressure. Confidence: moderate. Sources: [Quebec’s Real Estate Market Gradually Rebalances in the Second Quarter - APCIQ - Site web](https://apciq.ca/en/quebecs-real-estate-market-gradually-rebalances-in-the-second-quarter/) [Jonquiere, Saguenay - July 2026 Real Estate Report | HonestDoor](https://www.honestdoor.com/market-updates/post/jonquiere-saguenay-july-2026) [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) ## Next 6 months, through March 2027 Prices: rising. Rising prices in Saguenay, estimated at 1-3% increase, driven by national recovery trends. This is a city-level projection, not a measured L'Orée-des-Bois outcome. Why: The Royal LePage forecast projects a 2.0% annualized price increase for Q4 2026 nationally, supported by pent-up demand and lower bond yields. TD Economics expects national sales to grind higher through 2026H2. However, the pandemic-era mortgage renewal wave will impact approximately 12% of outstanding mortgages with average 15% payment increases, potentially constraining upgrade demand in price-sensitive markets like Saguenay. Buyers: wait. Waiting allows buyers to observe how the mortgage renewal wave affects local inventory and pricing. If renewed mortgages lead to increased listings from sellers who cannot afford higher payments, buyers may find better negotiating positions in early 2027. Sellers: either way. Sellers can list now to capture early recovery momentum or wait until spring 2027 when seasonal demand typically peaks. The decision depends on individual urgency and tolerance for potential rate volatility in the interim. Watch: A sustained increase in national mortgage delinquency rates above 0.5% would signal financial stress among borrowers, potentially leading to increased distressed sales and downward price pressure in Saguenay. Confidence: low. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate](https://economics.td.com/RealEstate) ## Next 12 months, through September 2027 Prices: flat. Flat to moderately rising prices in Saguenay, estimated at 0-4% increase, depending on the pace of new housing completions and national economic conditions. This is a city-level scenario, not a measured L'Orée-des-Bois result. Why: CMHC reports Canada needs 187,000 to 238,000 homes annually to close its supply gap, indicating persistent structural constraints. Federal infrastructure funds, including the Build Communities Strong Fund ($51 billion over 10 years starting 2026-27), may support long-term development but require municipal implementation. For Saguenay, population growth of 0.44% year-over-year suggests modest demand growth, while national price forecasts point to gradual recovery rather than rapid appreciation. Buyers: wait. Waiting provides time for federal infrastructure investments to materialize into local development projects, potentially increasing housing supply and moderating price growth. Buyers should monitor Saguenay's building permit activity and completion data for signs of new supply entering the market. Sellers: wait. Sellers should wait until new housing supply begins to affect the market, as increased competition from new builds may moderate price growth. Listing in late 2027 allows sellers to position their properties against both existing and new inventory, potentially achieving better value relative to alternatives. Watch: A significant acceleration in Saguenay's housing starts or completions, exceeding historical averages by more than 20%, would indicate increased supply pressure that could flatten or reverse price gains in the latter half of 2027. Confidence: low. Sources: [Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals) [Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html) [Statistics Canada Table 17-10-0155-01](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710015501) Assumptions: Bank of Canada maintains its policy rate at 2.25% through the forecast period; National mortgage delinquency rates remain low, allowing most borrowers to absorb payment increases without defaulting; No significant changes to federal housing infrastructure funding allocations affect Saguenay during this period. What would reverse this: A sharp increase in fixed mortgage rates above 4.5% due to rising bond yields or inflationary pressures would reduce buyer purchasing power, potentially leading to decreased sales volume and price declines in Saguenay. Alternatively, a significant drop in national economic growth from trade conflicts could weaken employment and income expectations, further dampening housing demand. Sources: [Quebec’s Real Estate Market Gradually Rebalances in the Second Quarter - APCIQ - Site web](https://apciq.ca/en/quebecs-real-estate-market-gradually-rebalances-in-the-second-quarter/) [Jonquiere, Saguenay - July 2026 Real Estate Report | HonestDoor](https://www.honestdoor.com/market-updates/post/jonquiere-saguenay-july-2026) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate](https://economics.td.com/RealEstate) [Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals) ## Sources - [Quebec’s Real Estate Market Gradually Rebalances in the Second Quarter - APCIQ - Site web](https://apciq.ca/en/quebecs-real-estate-market-gradually-rebalances-in-the-second-quarter/): Source reference date 21 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Saguenay, QC. - [Jonquiere, Saguenay - July 2026 Real Estate Report | HonestDoor](https://www.honestdoor.com/market-updates/post/jonquiere-saguenay-july-2026): Observation reference period: 31 July 2026. Scope: city, Saguenay, QC. - [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: city; National, CA. - [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Statistics Canada Table 17-10-0155-01](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710015501): date unavailable. Scope: Census subdivision/municipality; not neighbourhood-level, Saguenay, QC. - [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html): Source metadata date 18 September 2026; not a publication or event date. Scope: National, CA. - [Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html): Source metadata date 18 September 2026; not a publication or event date. Scope: National, CA. - [Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals): First captured 21 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [École Saint-Denis](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/352908247): date unavailable. Scope: city. - [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate](https://economics.td.com/RealEstate): First captured 18 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. Prepared by Aurynge with AI-assisted research and writing. See /methodology for the evidence and publication policy.