# Le Montagnais: Pandemic Mortgage Renewals Meet Stable Rates in a National Financing Shift The final wave of pandemic-era five-year fixed mortgages is set to renew over the next year, with borrowers facing an average 15% payment increase. This national financing shift coincides with stable Bank of Canada rates and rising bond yields, creating a complex backdrop for Canadian homeowners. Published 2026-10-11. Evidence snapshot 2026-10-12. ## Key facts and reporting periods - New Listings: 41166 listings. Property type: All. Scope: Sherbrooke, QC. Reporting date: 2026-07-31. [Source](https://courticonnect.ca/en/blog/sherbrooke-real-estate-market-july-2026) ## Market summary The final wave of pandemic-era five-year fixed mortgages is set to renew over the next year, with borrowers facing an average 15% payment increase. This national financing shift coincides with stable Bank of Canada rates and rising bond yields, creating a complex backdrop for Canadian homeowners. ## Central finding The conclusion of the pandemic mortgage renewal cycle represents a significant national financing event, affecting approximately 12% of outstanding mortgages with an average 15% payment increase. This occurs while the Bank of Canada holds its policy rate at 2.25% and five-year bond yields rise near 3.65%, indicating that fixed-rate borrowing costs are under upward pressure despite central bank stability. The finding matters because it identifies a specific, dated mechanism through which household affordability may be constrained nationally, independent of local market dynamics. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) ## Pandemic Renewal Wave Meets Rising Bond Yields Over the next year, the last of the five-year fixed-rate mortgages taken out during the pandemic will come up for renewal, representing approximately 12% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages. Borrowers in this cohort can expect their monthly payments to increase by an average of 15%, according to the Bank of Canada. This renewal event is a distinct national financing mechanism that directly impacts household cash flow and borrowing capacity, separate from current new-mortgage origination trends. Simultaneously, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% on September 2, 2026, keeping lender prime rates at 4.45%. However, the five-year Government of Canada bond yield has risen to around 3.65%, exerting upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates. As of September 18, 2026, the lowest available five-year fixed mortgage rate in Canada is 4.24%. This divergence between stable policy rates and rising bond yields suggests that fixed-rate borrowing costs may continue to climb, complicating the affordability outlook for both renewing and new borrowers nationwide. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) ## Federal Infrastructure Funding Sets Long-Term Delivery Conditions The Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund (CHIF) allocates $6 billion over 10 years to support housing-enabling infrastructure, with projects under the Direct Delivery stream required to be substantially completed by September 2031. This federal funding stream is designed to remove infrastructure bottlenecks that constrain housing supply, indirectly supporting development activity across eligible communities. The long-term completion deadlines establish a multi-year horizon for potential supply-side improvements linked to public infrastructure upgrades. These federal conditions operate at a national scale and do not specify local project allocations or timelines for Sherbrooke or Le Montagnais. The fund's impact on housing delivery depends on provincial and municipal implementation decisions, which are not detailed in the retained evidence. Consequently, while CHIF provides a framework for future infrastructure investment, it does not establish immediate changes to local housing stock, construction starts, or neighborhood-level development outcomes. Sources: [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html) ## The strongest counter-case National mortgage delinquency rates remain low at 0.24% as of Q4 2025, suggesting most borrowers have successfully absorbed higher payments or refinanced. Additionally, strict mortgage stress test rules mean many borrowers qualified at rates significantly higher than their actual pandemic-era rates, potentially cushioning the impact of the 15% payment increase. These factors indicate that the renewal wave may not trigger widespread financial distress or demand collapse, contrary to initial fears. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) ## Living here Mapped inside Le Montagnais are 3 schools, including New Horizons Adult Education Centre, École du Saint-Esprit, and École du Triolet; 2 parks, including Parc Marguerite-Bourgeoys; 32 transit stops, such as Boul. de l'Université / du Montagnais and Université de Sherbrooke (Sciences); 1 childcare facility, CPE Tout-petit, Toute-petite - Installation G18; 1 grocery store, Maxi; and 1 recreation facility. Schools: École du Triolet shows strong comparative performance, with assessment results indicating a positive shift in comparative standing from previous years. Improved metrics do not necessarily reflect increased rigor, so course loads and graduation requirements should be compared directly. The Fraser Institute cautions that the choice of a school should not be made solely on the basis of any one source of information. Sources: [New Horizons Adult Education Centre](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/44958732) [École Notre-Dame-de-Liesse](https://www.openstreetmap.org/relation/11821281) ## The early signal Monitor the following measure: Five-year Government of Canada bond yield rising to 3.65%. How it reaches the market: Rising bond yields directly influence fixed mortgage rates, increasing borrowing costs for new and renewing buyers. This affects affordability and demand before showing up in sales volume or price data, as higher carrying costs reduce purchasing power and delay transactions. Typical lead time: Weeks to months ahead of mortgage rate adjustments and subsequent market activity. Sources: [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) ## Next 3 months, through December 2026 Prices: flat. National aggregate home prices expected to remain relatively flat, with quarter-over-quarter changes near 0.7%. This scenario is not a measured Le Montagnais result. Why: Stable Bank of Canada policy rate at 2.25% and low national mortgage delinquency rates suggest limited immediate directional pressure. Rising bond yields may offset some affordability gains, keeping national price growth muted. Buyers: wait. Waiting allows buyers to observe how rising bond yields affect fixed mortgage rates and whether the pandemic renewal wave triggers any localized demand shifts before committing. Sellers: either way. Sellers can list now if motivated by personal circumstances, but should expect moderate buyer interest given stable but cautious national financing conditions. Watch: A sustained drop in national sales volume below Q2 2026 levels or a sharp increase in mortgage delinquency rates would signal further cooling rather than stabilization. Confidence: moderate. Sources: [Housing Price Market Report: London – Q1 2026 | Royal LePage](https://www.royallepage.ca/en/realestate/info-and-advice/market-reports-and-surveys/housing-price-market-report-london-q1-2026/) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) ## Next 6 months, through March 2027 Prices: rising. National aggregate home prices forecast to increase 2.0% year-over-year in Q4 2026. This scenario is not a measured Le Montagnais result. Why: Royal LePage forecasts a modest national price recovery supported by pent-up demand and lower bond yields, though levels remain below pre-pandemic norms. The pandemic mortgage renewal wave concludes within this window, potentially stabilizing borrower finances. Buyers: buy now. Acting now captures the anticipated modest national price increase before potential further rises driven by pent-up demand, assuming financing costs remain manageable. Sellers: list now. Listing now aligns with the forecasted national price uptick, maximizing exposure to recovering buyer demand as the pandemic renewal wave ends. Watch: Fixed mortgage rates remaining volatile due to trade-war-induced growth weakness or tariff-driven inflation could reverse the price recovery forecast. Confidence: low. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) ## Next 12 months, through September 2027 Prices: flat. National sales expected to remain below pre-pandemic norms until late 2027, with prices likely flat to slightly rising. This scenario is not a measured Le Montagnais result. Why: TD Economics projects national sales will grind higher through 2026H2 but remain below pre-pandemic norms until late 2027. The full impact of the pandemic mortgage renewal wave will have passed, but structural affordability constraints persist. Buyers: either way. Buyers have flexibility to act based on individual financing conditions, as the national market is expected to stabilize without dramatic swings in either direction. Sellers: wait. Waiting allows sellers to benefit from the gradual recovery in national sales volume, though they should not expect pre-pandemic demand levels to return within this window. Watch: A prolonged trade conflict weakening economic growth or higher energy prices driving inflation could push bond yields and fixed rates higher, delaying the expected stabilization. Confidence: low. Sources: [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate](https://economics.td.com/RealEstate) [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) Assumptions: The Bank of Canada maintains its policy rate at 2.25% throughout the outlook period; The pandemic mortgage renewal wave proceeds as described, with no major disruptions to the banking system; No significant new federal or provincial housing policies alter the national supply-demand balance beyond those already announced. What would reverse this: A severe trade war escalation leading to recessionary conditions could push bond yields lower but also sharply reduce consumer confidence and income, causing a deeper national price decline than forecast. Conversely, unexpected inflation spikes could force rapid rate hikes, stalling any price recovery. Sources: [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) [CREA | REALTOR® Recommendations](https://www.crea.ca/advocacy/realtor-recommendations/) ## Sources - [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: city; National, CA. - [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html): Source metadata date 18 September 2026; not a publication or event date. Scope: National, CA. - [New Horizons Adult Education Centre](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/44958732): date unavailable. Scope: neighbourhood. - [École Notre-Dame-de-Liesse](https://www.openstreetmap.org/relation/11821281): date unavailable. Scope: city. - [CREA | REALTOR® Recommendations](https://www.crea.ca/advocacy/realtor-recommendations/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Housing Price Market Report: London – Q1 2026 | Royal LePage](https://www.royallepage.ca/en/realestate/info-and-advice/market-reports-and-surveys/housing-price-market-report-london-q1-2026/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate](https://economics.td.com/RealEstate): First captured 18 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. Prepared by Aurynge with AI-assisted research and writing. See /methodology for the evidence and publication policy.