# Harwood Market: Semi-Detached Inventory Tightens to 2.4 Months as Citywide Prices Fall 2.7% Toronto's semi-detached inventory dropped to 2.4 months in Q2 2026, down from 3.0 months a year earlier, signaling tighter supply in that segment even as the city's average selling price fell 2.7% year-over-year. For Harwood residents, this contrast highlights how property type can experience different market dynamics within the same neighbourhood. Published 2026-09-22. Evidence snapshot 2026-10-12. ## Key facts and reporting periods - Average Sale Price: 1000000 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Toronto, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-11. [Source](https://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/ltt-hike-would-exacerbate-affordability-woes-trreb/) - Average Sale Price: 2000000 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Toronto, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-11. [Source](https://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/ltt-hike-would-exacerbate-affordability-woes-trreb/) - Average Sale Price: 1000000 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Toronto, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-11. [Source](https://trreb.ca/?s=land+transfer+tax) - Average Sale Price: 993410 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Toronto, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-11. [Source](https://creastats.crea.ca/board/treb/) - Sales Volume: 15 count. Property type: All. Scope: Toronto, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-11. [Source](https://housepriceindex.ca/blog/) - New Listings: 12075 count. Property type: All. Scope: Toronto, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-11. [Source](https://creastats.crea.ca/board/treb/) - New Listings: 24 count. Property type: All. Scope: Toronto, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-11. [Source](https://thelocal.to/toronto-mayor-olivia-chow-100-days/) - Population: 416 people. Property type: All. Scope: Toronto, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-11. [Source](https://trreb.ca/?s=land+transfer+tax) ## Market summary Toronto's semi-detached inventory dropped to 2.4 months in Q2 2026, down from 3.0 months a year earlier, signaling tighter supply in that segment even as the city's average selling price fell 2.7% year-over-year. For Harwood residents, this contrast highlights how property type can experience different market dynamics within the same neighbourhood. ## Central finding Toronto's semi-detached housing market tightened significantly between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026, with months of inventory falling from 3.0 to 2.4, while the broader GTA average selling price declined 2.7% year-over-year in August 2026. This divergence suggests segment-specific supply constraints are emerging within a generally softening price environment. Sources: [Toronto Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/treb-market-conditions) [Toronto Regional Real Estate Board | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/treb) ## How the numbers connect The year-over-year change in months of inventory for semi-detached homes in Toronto indicates a tightening supply condition relative to demand. Calculation: 2.4 months (Q2 2026) - 3.0 months (Q2 2025) = -0.6 months Definitions: Months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity. The comparison uses end-of-quarter values for semi-detached units in Toronto from CREA Statistics. Limit: This calculation establishes a change between two specific quarter-end dates. It does not establish a sustained trend, structural shift, or cause for the change. It also does not measure Harwood specifically. Sources: [Toronto Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/treb-market-conditions) ## Semi-Detached Inventory Tightens While Citywide Prices Soften Months of inventory for semi-detached units in Toronto fell to 2.4 at the end of Q2 2026, down from 3.0 months recorded at the end of Q2 2025, according to CREA Statistics. This represents a 0.6-month decrease in supply relative to demand, moving the segment well below the typical 3-6 month balanced market threshold. In contrast, the GTA average selling price dropped 2.7% year-over-year to $993,410 in August 2026, and the MLS HPI Composite benchmark fell 4.5% annually over the same period. These figures are measured at the city and regional level, not at the Harwood neighbourhood level. The divergence between segment-specific inventory tightening and broader price declines suggests that supply constraints in semi-detached homes are creating localized seller leverage even within a generally softening market. For Harwood residents considering a move, this means that semi-detached properties may command stronger pricing than condominiums or detached homes, which face different inventory conditions. Buyers of semi-detached homes in Harwood should expect more competitive bidding situations, while sellers of other property types may find more negotiating room with buyers. Sources: [Toronto Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/treb-market-conditions) [Toronto Regional Real Estate Board | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/treb) [Toronto Regional Real Estate Board | CREA Statistics](https://creastats.crea.ca/board/treb/) ## Mortgage Renewal Pressures Test Buyer Affordability Over the next year, approximately 12% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages taken out during the pandemic era will come up for renewal, with borrowers facing an average 15% increase in monthly payments, according to Royal LePage citing Bank of Canada data. The Bank of Canada cut its key policy rate to 2.50% in September 2025, providing some relief for variable-rate borrowers, but fixed-rate renewals still face significant payment increases. National mortgage delinquency rates remain low at 0.24% as of Q4 2025, suggesting most borrowers are absorbing higher payments without defaulting, but the cumulative effect on household budgets remains substantial. These financing conditions create a transmission mechanism that affects purchasing power across the Toronto market, though no supplied target-scope transaction series establishes whether these pressures have changed Harwood-specific outcomes. The combination of rising monthly payments and softening prices creates a complex dynamic where some buyers may be priced out of ownership entirely, potentially shifting demand toward the rental market. For Harwood residents, this means that the pool of qualified buyers for higher-priced homes may shrink, particularly among those with pandemic-era mortgages coming due for renewal, which could extend days on market for premium properties even as inventory remains tight in certain segments. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [Toronto Real Estate Market Update – September 2025](https://www.torontolivings.com/september-2025-toronto-real-estate-market-update/) [Cost Of Living In Ottawa 2026: Housing, Rent & Expenses](https://ottawarealtyman.com/cost-of-living-in-ottawa/) ## Condo Supply Constriction Meets Record Student Housing Deliveries Toronto recorded only 156 new condo unit starts in the first half of 2026, according to CMHC data cited by STOREYS, signaling severe constriction in new-purpose rental condo supply. Meanwhile, the Greater Toronto Area leads Ontario with 2,734 projected student housing completions in 2026, representing 43% of the provincial total, as several multi-phase projects reach occupancy. A $2.7 billion federal-city deal will bring 5,600 new rental homes to Toronto, with construction slated to begin on more than 4,500 of those homes before the end of 2026. These figures are measured at the city and regional level, not at the Harwood neighbourhood level. The contrast between minimal new condo starts and significant student housing deliveries suggests that future rental supply in Toronto will be heavily weighted toward purpose-built student accommodations rather than traditional condominium rentals. For Harwood residents, this composition shift has implications for the local rental market, as increased student housing supply may put downward pressure on rents in areas with high university proximity, while limited new condo construction supports longer-term rental price stability in established residential neighbourhoods. Developers adjusting to market conditions are also modifying product mix, with Gupta Group reducing Yonge City Square from 700 to 500 units to increase the proportion of two- and three-bedroom residences, responding to growing demand for larger living spaces. Sources: [Affordable Housing in Canada's Real Estate Market | STOREYS](https://storeys.com/real-estate-news/affordable-housing/) [Ontario Student Housing Deliveries Set to Reach Record in 2026 | Urbanation](https://www.urbanation.ca/news/ontario-student-housing-deliveries-set-reach-record-2026) [Canadian Rental Market News & Narratives | STOREYS](https://storeys.com/real-estate-news/renting/) [What’s selling in Toronto’s condo market? Developers weigh in](https://realestatemagazine.ca/whats-selling-in-torontos-stalled-condo-market-developers-weigh-in/) ## The strongest counter-case The GTA MLS HPI Composite benchmark fell 4.5% year-over-year in August 2026, and Ontario home sales hit a 25-year low in August 2026. These broad indicators suggest overall demand weakness that could offset segment-specific tightening if buyer confidence continues to erode due to mortgage renewal pressures. Sources: [Toronto Regional Real Estate Board | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/treb) [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/orea/) ## Living here Harwood contains three mapped schools: Harwood Public School, Santa Maria Catholic School, and St. Oscar Romero Catholic Secondary School. Three parks are mapped, including Harwood Park. Nine transit stops are located on Northland Avenue, McCormack Street, Seneca Avenue, Avon Crescent, Rogers Road, and Avon Loop at Weston Rd. One recreation facility is mapped. Sources: [Harwood Public School](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/35983500) ## The early signal Months of inventory for semi-detached units in Toronto, which fell from 3.0 to 2.4 between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026. How it reaches the market: When months of inventory fall below the balanced market threshold of 3-6 months, sellers gain pricing power because fewer competing listings allow buyers to compete more intensely for available homes, pushing sale prices upward over time. Typical lead time: Inventory levels typically lead price changes by one to two quarters as they reflect the balance of supply and demand before transaction prices fully adjust. Sources: [Toronto Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/treb-market-conditions) ## Next 3 months, through December 2026 Prices: flat. Flat to slightly rising for semi-detached homes in Toronto; flat for other segments. Not a measured Harwood result. Why: Semi-detached inventory at 2.4 months in Toronto (Q2 2026) is below the balanced threshold, suggesting continued seller leverage in that segment. However, the GTA HPI fell 4.5% YoY in August 2026, indicating broader price softness. This scenario is not a measured Harwood result. Buyers: wait. Buyers may benefit from continued price softness in the broader market while negotiating on semi-detached properties where inventory is tight but not yet critical. Sellers: list now. Sellers of semi-detached homes should list now to capitalize on tight inventory before potential seasonal slowdowns affect buyer interest. Watch: A rise in semi-detached months of inventory above 3.0 months in Toronto would indicate easing supply pressure and reduced seller leverage. Confidence: moderate. Sources: [Toronto Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/treb-market-conditions) [Toronto Regional Real Estate Board | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/treb) ## Next 6 months, through March 2027 Prices: falling. Falling for all segments in Toronto as mortgage renewal pressures and weak sales volumes weigh on prices. Not a measured Harwood result. Why: The pandemic-era mortgage renewal wave affecting 12% of outstanding mortgages with an average 15% payment increase will continue to pressure affordability. Combined with the 25-year low in Ontario August sales, this suggests continued demand weakness that could offset inventory tightening. This scenario is not a measured Harwood result. Buyers: either way. Buyers have negotiating leverage in most segments due to broader market softness, but should act quickly on desirable semi-detached properties given tight inventory. Sellers: wait. Sellers should wait until mortgage renewal pressures ease or until inventory levels normalize, as listing during a period of falling prices and weak demand may result in lower sale prices. Watch: A stabilization or increase in monthly sales volumes in Toronto above the 10-year average would indicate recovering demand and support price stability. Confidence: low. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/orea/) ## Next 12 months, through September 2027 Prices: rising. Rising for all segments in Toronto as long-term demographic and supply constraints begin to dominate over short-term financing pressures. Not a measured Harwood result. Why: Long-term trends show declining homeownership rates in the Toronto CMA (from 68.3% in 2011 to 65.1% in 2021) and population growth exceeding 7.1 million in 2024. These structural factors suggest sustained demand pressure that could eventually overcome short-term financing headwinds. This scenario is not a measured Harwood result. Buyers: buy now. Buyers who need to purchase should act now before potential long-term price increases driven by population growth and persistent housing demand outpacing supply. Sellers: list now. Sellers should list now to position their properties ahead of expected long-term price appreciation driven by demographic growth and supply constraints. Watch: A significant increase in new housing starts or completions in Toronto that exceeds population growth would indicate improving supply conditions and could moderate price increases. Confidence: low. Sources: [Greater Toronto Area Real Estate Market Ranks #2 Among Canada’s Top-Performing Markets - REMAX Canada](https://blog.remax.ca/greater-toronto-area-real-estate-market/) [Affordable Housing in Canada's Real Estate Market | STOREYS](https://storeys.com/real-estate-news/affordable-housing/) Assumptions: Mortgage rates remain near current levels through the forecast period; No major new housing developments are approved in Harwood during the forecast windows; Bank of Canada maintains its current monetary policy stance. What would reverse this: If mortgage renewal pressures cause a significant increase in distressed sales or if the Bank of Canada raises rates unexpectedly, the semi-detached inventory tightening could reverse as more sellers enter the market and buyer demand weakens further. Sources: [Toronto Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/treb-market-conditions) [Toronto Regional Real Estate Board | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/treb) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/orea/) [Greater Toronto Area Real Estate Market Ranks #2 Among Canada’s Top-Performing Markets - REMAX Canada](https://blog.remax.ca/greater-toronto-area-real-estate-market/) [Affordable Housing in Canada's Real Estate Market | STOREYS](https://storeys.com/real-estate-news/affordable-housing/) ## Sources - [Toronto Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/treb-market-conditions): Observation reference period: 30 June 2026. Scope: city, Toronto, ON. - [Toronto Regional Real Estate Board | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/treb): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Toronto, ON. - [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/orea/): Source reference date 18 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: provincial, ON; Province, ON. - [Toronto Regional Real Estate Board | CREA Statistics](https://creastats.crea.ca/board/treb/): Source reference date 18 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Toronto, ON. - [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: City, Toronto, ON. - [Toronto Real Estate Market Update – September 2025](https://www.torontolivings.com/september-2025-toronto-real-estate-market-update/): Observation reference period: 30 September 2025. Scope: city, Toronto, ON; Region, ON. - [Cost Of Living In Ottawa 2026: Housing, Rent & Expenses](https://ottawarealtyman.com/cost-of-living-in-ottawa/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: City, Toronto, ON. - [Affordable Housing in Canada's Real Estate Market | STOREYS](https://storeys.com/real-estate-news/affordable-housing/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: City, Toronto, ON. - [Ontario Student Housing Deliveries Set to Reach Record in 2026 | Urbanation](https://www.urbanation.ca/news/ontario-student-housing-deliveries-set-reach-record-2026): First captured 17 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: Region, ON. - [Canadian Rental Market News & Narratives | STOREYS](https://storeys.com/real-estate-news/renting/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: City, Toronto, ON. - [What’s selling in Toronto’s condo market? Developers weigh in](https://realestatemagazine.ca/whats-selling-in-torontos-stalled-condo-market-developers-weigh-in/): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Toronto, ON. - [Harwood Public School](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/35983500): date unavailable. Scope: neighbourhood. - [Greater Toronto Area Real Estate Market Ranks #2 Among Canada’s Top-Performing Markets - REMAX Canada](https://blog.remax.ca/greater-toronto-area-real-estate-market/): Observation reference period: 31 December 2024. Scope: city, Toronto, ON; Region, ON. Prepared by Aurynge with AI-assisted research and writing. See /methodology for the evidence and publication policy.