# Pheasant Run Buyers Gain Leverage as Ottawa Townhouse Prices Fall 4% and Inventory Surges 27% Ottawa's August 2026 housing market reveals a clear split: townhouse prices fell 4.0% year-over-year while apartments dropped 5.1%, with townhouse inventory surging 27.1%. For Pheasant Run buyers and sellers, this citywide divergence suggests negotiating leverage is growing in attached housing, though these figures reflect the broader Ottawa market rather than neighbourhood-specific conditions. Published 2026-10-11. Evidence snapshot 2026-10-12. ## Key facts and reporting periods - Average Rent: 2406 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Ottawa, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-11. [Source](https://www.urbanation.ca/news/over-half-ottawa-rental-buildings-offering-incentives) - Average Rent: 272 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Ottawa, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-11. [Source](https://www.urbanation.ca/news/over-half-ottawa-rental-buildings-offering-incentives) - Vacancy Rate: 3.2 percent. Property type: All. Scope: Ottawa, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-11. [Source](https://www.urbanation.ca/news/over-half-ottawa-rental-buildings-offering-incentives) - Average Sale Price: 600000 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Ottawa, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://ottawarealtyman.com/ottawa-home-prices/) - Average Sale Price: 772459 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Ottawa, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://agentinottawa.com/stats/) - Average Sale Price: 414620 cad. Property type: Condominium. Scope: Ottawa, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://agentinottawa.com/stats/) - Median Sale Price: 625000 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Ottawa, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/ottawa-home-sales-hold-steady-in-september-as-new-listings-rise/) - Median Sale Price: 625000 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Ottawa, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://www.pilongroup.com/ottawa-real-estate-market-update/) ## Market summary Ottawa's August 2026 housing market reveals a clear split: townhouse prices fell 4.0% year-over-year while apartments dropped 5.1%, with townhouse inventory surging 27.1%. For Pheasant Run buyers and sellers, this citywide divergence suggests negotiating leverage is growing in attached housing, though these figures reflect the broader Ottawa market rather than neighbourhood-specific conditions. ## Central finding Ottawa's August 2026 market shows a sharp divergence: townhouse benchmark prices fell 4.0% year-over-year while apartment benchmarks dropped 5.1%, with active listings up 27.1% for townhouses. This segment-specific softening, combined with a citywide sales-to-new-listings ratio of 47.3%, signals shifting buyer leverage that affects how Pheasant Run residents should approach transactions, though these are citywide measures, not neighbourhood-specific readings. Sources: [Ottawa Home Sales Pull Back Sharply in August While Prices Hold Steady – Ottawa Real Estate Board](https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/ottawa-home-sales-pull-back-sharply-in-august-while-prices-hold-steady/) [Ottawa Real Estate Board | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/otta) ## How the numbers connect The divergence between townhouse and apartment price declines in Ottawa indicates where buyer leverage is forming before headline prices move. Calculation: Townhouse benchmark change: -4.0% YoY. Apartment benchmark change: -5.1% YoY (from source-46b4e95f5650) or -6.7% YoY (May, source-0e4a4de7363c). Using August figures: -5.1% - (-4.0%) = -1.1 percentage point spread favoring townhouses over apartments in relative decline. Definitions: Benchmark price is the MLS HPI measure for a specific property type in Ottawa. The spread compares year-over-year percentage changes between townhouse and apartment segments for August 2026. Limit: This calculation compares citywide segment performance. It does not establish that Pheasant Run properties track these exact percentages, as no neighbourhood-level HPI data is supplied. Sources: [Ottawa Home Sales Pull Back Sharply in August While Prices Hold Steady – Ottawa Real Estate Board](https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/ottawa-home-sales-pull-back-sharply-in-august-while-prices-hold-steady/) [Ottawa Real Estate Board | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/otta) ## Segment Divergence Reveals Growing Buyer Leverage in Attached Housing Ottawa's August 2026 market data shows a pronounced split between property types. Townhouse benchmark prices fell 4.0% year-over-year while apartment benchmarks dropped 5.1%, according to the Ottawa Real Estate Board. Active townhouse listings surged 27.1% above last year's level, creating substantial inventory pressure in the attached housing segment. Meanwhile, single-family homes held relatively steady with benchmark prices up just 0.7% year-over-year, indicating that the softening is concentrated in more affordable property types. These citywide measurements are not direct readings of Pheasant Run conditions, but they provide context for how the broader Ottawa market is evolving. The 4.5 months of inventory in August, up from 3.5 in July, signals that supply is outpacing absorption. For buyers in Pheasant Run considering townhouses or apartments, this environment suggests greater negotiating power and potentially lower purchase prices. Sellers of attached housing should anticipate longer marketing periods and more competitive pricing to attract buyers in this softened segment. Sources: [Ottawa Home Sales Pull Back Sharply in August While Prices Hold Steady – Ottawa Real Estate Board](https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/ottawa-home-sales-pull-back-sharply-in-august-while-prices-hold-steady/) [Ottawa Real Estate Board | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/otta) ## Stable Policy Rates Moderate But Do Not Reverse Financing Pressure The Bank of Canada's policy interest rate has remained near 2.25% through mid-2026, keeping fixed mortgage rates comparatively stable after the rapid increases of 2022 and 2023. This stability provides some support for buyer purchasing power, particularly for those locking in fixed rates. However, the upcoming renewal of pandemic-era five-year fixed-rate mortgages represents approximately 12% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages, with borrowers facing average monthly payment increases of 15%. While no target-scoped financing data exists for Pheasant Run specifically, the citywide mechanism suggests that affordability constraints will continue to affect demand in the coming year. The combination of stable policy rates and rising renewal costs creates a mixed financing environment: new buyers benefit from predictable borrowing costs, while existing homeowners face increased financial strain that may limit their ability to upgrade or refinance. This dynamic could sustain the current softening in attached housing segments as household budgets tighten. Sources: [Cost Of Living In Ottawa 2026: Housing, Rent & Expenses](https://ottawarealtyman.com/cost-of-living-in-ottawa/) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) ## Apartment Pipeline and Slower Growth Shape Future Supply Dynamics Ottawa's housing delivery landscape is shifting toward rental and apartment-heavy composition. In April 2026, rental projects accounted for 61% of housing starts by market type, while apartments made up most new starts and the large majority of units currently under construction. This pipeline, combined with national demographic data pointing to slower population growth and fewer non-permanent residents, creates the possibility of an influx of apartment-style units that could significantly impact market conditions. The June 2026 data already reflects this pressure, with apartment-style properties showing 5.3 months of inventory and benchmark prices down 6.0% year-over-year, making them the softest segment in Ottawa. Federal infrastructure funding, including the $51 billion Build Communities Strong Fund starting in 2026-27, may support long-term development activity, but the immediate effect appears to be increased supply in the apartment sector. For Pheasant Run residents, this means continued competition in the attached housing market and potential downward pressure on both sale prices and rental rates as new units complete. Sources: [Ottawa Real Estate Board Market Update for May 2026 - Ottawa Real Estate - Ottawa Urban Realty](https://ottawaurbanrealty.com/ottawa-re-stats-may-2026/) [Ottawa Real Estate Board Market Update for June 2026 - Ottawa Real Estate - Ottawa Urban Realty](https://ottawaurbanrealty.com/ottawa-re-stats-june-2026/) [Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html) ## The strongest counter-case Single-family homes remained resilient with only a 0.7% year-over-year increase in benchmark price, suggesting that not all segments face equal pressure. Additionally, the Bank of Canada policy rate holding near 2.25% through mid-2026 supports stable fixed mortgage rates, which could moderate the pace of price declines by maintaining buyer purchasing power. Sources: [Ottawa Real Estate Board | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/otta) [Cost Of Living In Ottawa 2026: Housing, Rent & Expenses](https://ottawarealtyman.com/cost-of-living-in-ottawa/) ## Living here Pheasant Run contains one mapped park, Pheasant Run Park, and four transit stops: Larkin / Fallowfield, Cedarview / AD. 2760, and two locations at Cedarview / Fallowfield. These amenities establish recorded map presence only and do not indicate walkability, access quality, or buyer demand effects. Sources: [Pheasant Run Park](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/436181973) ## The early signal Monitor the following measure: Months of inventory rising from 3.5 in July to 4.5 in August 2026 across Ottawa. How it reaches the market: Rising months of inventory signals excess supply relative to demand, which forces sellers to reduce prices or extend time on market. In Ottawa, the jump from 3.5 to 4.5 months of inventory in August 2026 precedes potential further price softening in the coming quarters. Typical lead time: Months of inventory typically leads price changes by 2-4 months in balanced markets. Sources: [Ottawa Home Sales Pull Back Sharply in August While Prices Hold Steady – Ottawa Real Estate Board](https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/ottawa-home-sales-pull-back-sharply-in-august-while-prices-hold-steady/) ## Next 3 months, through December 2026 Prices: falling. Townhouse and apartment prices in Ottawa may decline another 1-3% as elevated inventory continues to pressure sellers. This is a citywide scenario, not a measured Pheasant Run result. Why: August 2026 data shows townhouse inventory up 27.1% YoY and benchmark prices down 4.0% YoY in Ottawa. The 4.5 months of inventory exceeds balanced levels, suggesting continued downward pressure on attached housing prices in the short term. Buyers: buy now. Buyers gain negotiating leverage as inventory rises and prices soften, allowing for better purchase terms in the attached housing segment. Sellers: wait. Sellers face increasing competition from rising inventory; waiting may allow for better timing if seasonal demand picks up in spring. Watch: A drop in months of inventory below 4.0 or a reversal in the sales-to-new-listings ratio above 50% would signal reduced buyer leverage. Confidence: moderate. Sources: [Ottawa Home Sales Pull Back Sharply in August While Prices Hold Steady – Ottawa Real Estate Board](https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/ottawa-home-sales-pull-back-sharply-in-august-while-prices-hold-steady/) [Ottawa Real Estate Board | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/otta) ## Next 6 months, through March 2027 Prices: flat. Prices in Ottawa may stabilize or see modest further declines of 0-2% as mortgage renewals absorb household budgets. This is a citywide projection, not a measured Pheasant Run outcome. Why: The pandemic-era mortgage renewal wave affecting 12% of outstanding mortgages with average 15% payment increases will continue to impact affordability through early 2027. Combined with slower national population growth, this could sustain soft demand conditions. Buyers: either way. Buyers can benefit from continued softening but should monitor whether price declines stabilize; acting now captures lower prices, while waiting risks missing bottoming values. Sellers: either way. Sellers should price competitively given ongoing inventory pressure; neither immediate sale nor extended wait offers clear advantage without additional market signals. Watch: Mortgage delinquency rates rising above 0.5% or a significant increase in new listings beyond current trends would indicate deeper market stress. Confidence: low. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [Ottawa Real Estate Board Market Update for June 2026 - Ottawa Real Estate - Ottawa Urban Realty](https://ottawaurbanrealty.com/ottawa-re-stats-june-2026/) ## Next 12 months, through September 2027 Prices: flat. Ottawa prices may remain flat or see slight recovery of 0-2% if infrastructure spending stimulates economic activity. This is a citywide scenario, not a measured Pheasant Run result. Why: Federal infrastructure funding including the $51 billion Build Communities Strong Fund starting in 2026-27 may support long-term development activity, but transmission to local housing markets depends on municipal implementation and project selection. Slower population growth continues to limit demand expansion. Buyers: wait. Waiting allows buyers to observe whether infrastructure investments stimulate local development and whether price declines have fully materialized before committing. Sellers: wait. Sellers may benefit from potential stabilization or recovery driven by infrastructure investment, but should prepare for continued competitive conditions in the interim. Watch: Announcement of specific infrastructure projects in the Pheasant Run area or a sustained increase in sales volume above five-year averages would signal market recovery. Confidence: low. Sources: [Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html) [Ottawa Real Estate Board Market Update for June 2026 - Ottawa Real Estate - Ottawa Urban Realty](https://ottawaurbanrealty.com/ottawa-re-stats-june-2026/) Assumptions: Bank of Canada policy rate remains near 2.25% through Q4 2026; No major new apartment completions enter the Pheasant Run area within the next six months; Citywide market conditions continue to influence neighbourhood-level pricing. What would reverse this: A sudden drop in interest rates or a surge in population growth could reverse the current softening trend, reducing buyer leverage and stabilizing prices faster than expected. Sources: [Ottawa Home Sales Pull Back Sharply in August While Prices Hold Steady – Ottawa Real Estate Board](https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/ottawa-home-sales-pull-back-sharply-in-august-while-prices-hold-steady/) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html) ## Sources - [Ottawa Home Sales Pull Back Sharply in August While Prices Hold Steady – Ottawa Real Estate Board](https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/ottawa-home-sales-pull-back-sharply-in-august-while-prices-hold-steady/): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Ottawa, ON. - [Ottawa Real Estate Board | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/otta): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Ottawa, ON. - [Cost Of Living In Ottawa 2026: Housing, Rent & Expenses](https://ottawarealtyman.com/cost-of-living-in-ottawa/): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Ottawa, ON; National, CA. - [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Ottawa Real Estate Board Market Update for May 2026 - Ottawa Real Estate - Ottawa Urban Realty](https://ottawaurbanrealty.com/ottawa-re-stats-may-2026/): First captured 18 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: City, Ottawa, ON. - [Ottawa Real Estate Board Market Update for June 2026 - Ottawa Real Estate - Ottawa Urban Realty](https://ottawaurbanrealty.com/ottawa-re-stats-june-2026/): First captured 18 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: City, Ottawa, ON. - [Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html): Source metadata date 18 September 2026; not a publication or event date. Scope: National, CA. - [Pheasant Run Park](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/436181973): date unavailable. Scope: neighbourhood. Prepared by Aurynge with AI-assisted research and writing. See /methodology for the evidence and publication policy.