# Locust Hill Buyers Gain Leverage as Markham's Resale Market Shifts Toward Buyer-Favorable Conditions

Markham's resale market shifted toward buyer leverage in early 2026, with a 41% sales-to-new-listings ratio and 4.49 months of inventory creating room for negotiation. A nearly $886,000 median price gap between detached homes and condos defined distinct entry points for buyers across the city.

Published 2026-10-11. Evidence snapshot 2026-10-12.

## Key facts and reporting periods

- Median Sale Price: 1047500 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Markham, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/gta/york/markham)
- Sales Volume: 152 count. Property type: All. Scope: Markham, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/gta/york/markham)
- New Listings: 686 count. Property type: All. Scope: Markham, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/gta/york/markham)
- Active Listings: 1417 count. Property type: All. Scope: Markham, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/gta/york/markham)
- Days on Market: 32 days. Property type: All. Scope: Markham, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/gta/york/markham)
- Population: 334653 people. Property type: All. Scope: Markham, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/gta/york/markham)
- Median Household Income: 139290 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Markham, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/gta/york/markham)
- Average Sale Price: 1125353 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Markham, ON. Reporting date: 2026-09-14. [Source](https://wowa.ca/ontario-housing-market)

## Market summary

Markham's resale market shifted toward buyer leverage in early 2026, with a 41% sales-to-new-listings ratio and 4.49 months of inventory creating room for negotiation. A nearly $886,000 median price gap between detached homes and condos defined distinct entry points for buyers across the city.

## Central finding

Markham's resale market entered 2026 with pronounced buyer leverage, evidenced by a Sales to New Listings Ratio of 41% and 4.49 months of inventory in February 2026, while a widening price gap between detached and condo segments created distinct negotiation dynamics for different buyer profiles. Sources:
[Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast](https://meetmatthew.ca/markham-real-estate-market-2026)
[New Pre Construction Homes in Markham, Ontario (2026) | Condomonk](https://condomonk.ca/markham)

## How the numbers connect

The median sale price gap between detached homes and condo apartments in Markham was approximately $886,000 in February 2026. Calculation: $1,440,944 (detached median) - $555,000 (condo median) = $885,944 Definitions: Markham city scope. February 2026 observation period. Median sale price for detached homes and condo apartments from the same source. Limit: This spread reflects Markham city-wide resale transactions in February 2026. It does not measure Locust Hill specifically, nor does it account for unit size, age, or condition differences between the two property types. Sources:
[Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast](https://meetmatthew.ca/markham-real-estate-market-2026)

## Buyer Leverage Emerges in Markham's Resale Market

Markham's resale market exhibited clear buyer-leaning conditions in February 2026, with a Sales to New Listings Ratio of 41% and 4.49 months of inventory. The median sale price stood at $1,042,500, while average days on market reached 43 days, indicating that well-priced homes moved reasonably quickly but overpriced listings sat longer. These figures, measured at the city level, suggest that buyers had meaningful negotiating power during this period. No neighbourhood-scoped market statistic is supplied for Locust Hill, so these city-wide observations serve as the best available proxy for understanding broader market dynamics affecting the area.

The property type composition revealed a stark price divergence. Detached homes commanded a median price of $1,440,944, while condo apartments traded at a median of $555,000, creating a spread of approximately $886,000. This gap defined distinct entry points for buyers: those seeking single-family homes faced significantly higher price barriers than those considering condominiums. The February 2026 snapshot also noted that semi-detached homes achieved 107% of list price, indicating stronger demand in that segment compared to detached homes, which averaged 38 days on market. These segment-specific dynamics highlight that buyer leverage varied considerably depending on the property type being pursued. Sources:
[Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast](https://meetmatthew.ca/markham-real-estate-market-2026)
[New Pre Construction Homes in Markham, Ontario (2026) | Condomonk](https://condomonk.ca/markham)

## Financing Stability Meets Renewal Headwinds

Mortgage financing conditions in Canada remained relatively stable as of September 2026, with the Bank of Canada holding its policy rate at 2.25%. The lowest available five-year fixed mortgage rate was 4.24%, while two-year and three-year fixed rates stayed below 4%. However, rising five-year Government of Canada bond yields near 3.65% were exerting upward pressure on fixed rates, potentially pushing them higher in the coming weeks.

The pandemic-era mortgage renewal wave was nearing its end, with approximately 12% of all outstanding mortgages coming up for renewal over the next year. Borrowers renewing these loans could expect an average 15% increase in monthly payments, according to the Bank of Canada. Despite this, national mortgage delinquency rates remained low at 0.24% as of the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating that most borrowers successfully absorbed higher payments. Strict mortgage stress test rules meant that many borrowers had qualified at rates significantly higher than what they actually paid, providing a buffer against default. This absorption of renewal shocks reduced the risk of forced sales entering the market, supporting price stability even as financing costs rose modestly. Sources:
[Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates)
[Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/)

## Supply Constraints Shape Long-Term Outlook

Canada faces a persistent housing supply gap, requiring 187,000 to 238,000 new homes annually to close the shortfall, according to CMHC's Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report. Construction has been falling short of meeting demand, implying chronic supply constraint nationally. In Ontario, student housing deliveries were set to reach record levels in 2026, with the Greater Toronto Area leading at 2,734 projected completions, representing 43% of the provincial total. While this specific metric pertains to student housing rather than general residential supply, it illustrates the scale of construction activity in the region.

Federal policy initiatives aimed at accelerating housing supply included the Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund, which allocated $6 billion over 10 years to support housing-enabling infrastructure. To qualify for this funding, communities with populations over 30,000 were required to implement zoning changes allowing four units as-of-right. Additionally, municipalities with populations over 300,000 had to freeze Development Charges for three years at pre-April 2, 2024 rates. These policy levers directly influence development costs and density potential, potentially boosting housing supply capacity in eligible communities. Markham, with a population well above these thresholds, falls within the scope of these requirements, though the specific implementation timeline and local impact remain subject to municipal planning decisions. Sources:
[Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals)
[Ontario Student Housing Deliveries Set to Reach Record in 2026 | Urbanation](https://www.urbanation.ca/news/ontario-student-housing-deliveries-set-reach-record-2026)
[Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html)

## The strongest counter-case

TRREB data indicates GTA resale conditions tightened in July 2026 compared to the same month in 2025, with new listings declining substantially. This suggests the buyer-leaning conditions observed in early 2026 may have reversed by mid-year, reducing the duration of the negotiation advantage described in the February snapshot. Sources:
[Search Results for “market watch” – TRREB](https://trreb.ca/?s=market+watch)

## Living here

City-level amenities mapped near Markham include Bur Oak Secondary School, Little Rouge Public School, St. Julia Billiart Catholic Elementary School, McKay Art Centre Park, Cornell Community Dog Park, Elgin Mills Road / Victoria Square Boulevard transit stop, Raymerville Drive / Quarry Stone Drive transit stop, Blooming Lives Montessori, Pris-T-giS Montessori School, Michael Angelo's grocery, Longo's grocery, and Crosby Memorial Community Centre. These are recorded map presence only and do not establish walkability, access, convenience, connectivity, quality, or price effects for Locust Hill.

Sources:
[Bur Oak Secondary School](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/220406701)

## The early signal

Zoning changes allowing four units as-of-right in communities over 30,000 population, required for Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund eligibility. How it reaches the market: Mandatory four-unit zoning increases density potential on existing lots, boosting future housing supply capacity. This additional supply can moderate price growth and improve affordability over time by increasing the number of available units relative to demand. Typical lead time: Months to years, as zoning changes precede construction starts and completions. Sources:
[Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html)

## Next 3 months, through December 2026

Prices: flat. Flat to slightly falling prices in Markham, driven by buyer leverage and stable financing costs. This is a city-wide scenario, not a measured Locust Hill result. Why: February 2026 Markham data shows 41% SNLR and 4.49 months inventory, indicating buyer leverage. Bank of Canada held rates steady at 2.25% in September 2026, keeping variable payments stable. The 15% average payment increase for pandemic-era renewals is largely absorbed, with low delinquency rates. This scenario applies to Markham city-wide; no target-scope measurement exists for Locust Hill. Buyers: buy now. Buyers gain negotiation leverage from elevated inventory and low sales-to-listing ratios. Acting now allows them to secure properties before any potential mid-year tightening suggested by TRREB data. Sellers: wait. Sellers face more competition due to high inventory. Waiting may allow them to reposition pricing or wait for seasonal demand shifts, though this risks further price softening if buyer leverage persists. Watch: SNLR rising above 50% or months of inventory dropping below 3.5 would indicate a shift toward balanced or seller-favorable conditions, overturning the flat price call. Confidence: moderate. Sources:
[Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast](https://meetmatthew.ca/markham-real-estate-market-2026)
[Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates)
[Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/)

## Next 6 months, through March 2027

Prices: rising. Modestly rising prices in Markham as supply constraints and potential rate increases offset buyer leverage. This is a city-wide scenario, not a measured Locust Hill result. Why: Rising five-year Government of Canada bond yields near 3.65% are exerting upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates, which could reduce borrowing capacity. However, the pandemic renewal wave is nearing its end, removing a key headwind. CMHC notes Canada needs 187,000-238,000 homes annually, suggesting persistent supply constraints that support long-term price stability. This mechanism operates at national and provincial levels; no target-scope evidence confirms its effect on Locust Hill. Buyers: either way. Buyers face a trade-off: current leverage may erode if rates rise, but waiting risks missing favorable terms if the market tightens. Either action is viable depending on individual financing timelines and risk tolerance. Sellers: list now. Sellers benefit from acting before potential rate-driven demand slowdowns. Listing now captures current buyer interest before financing costs potentially dampen purchasing power in late 2026. Watch: Five-year fixed mortgage rates exceeding 4.5% or a sustained decline in Markham sales volume would indicate weakening demand, overturning the rising price call. Confidence: low. Sources:
[Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates)
[Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals)
[Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/)

## Next 12 months, through September 2027

Prices: flat. Stabilizing prices in Markham as supply increases offset demand growth. This is a city-wide scenario, not a measured Locust Hill result. Why: Federal infrastructure funding, including the Build Communities Strong Fund ($51 billion over 10 years starting 2026-27) and CHIF zoning requirements, supports long-term housing supply expansion. Toronto CMA population growth of over 500,000 residents between 2022-2024 sustains underlying demand. However, homeownership rates have declined from 68.3% in 2011 to 65.1% in 2021, reflecting cumulative affordability pressure. These factors operate at regional and national scales; no target-scope evidence establishes their specific impact on Locust Hill. Buyers: wait. Buyers may benefit from increased housing supply and potential price moderation as federal infrastructure projects progress. Waiting allows them to observe how new supply affects local pricing and availability. Sellers: either way. Sellers face a balanced outlook: increased supply may moderate prices, but sustained population growth supports demand. Either action is reasonable depending on urgency and pricing strategy. Watch: Significant delays in federal infrastructure funding disbursement or a sharp decline in Toronto CMA population growth would weaken the supply-side support, potentially leading to falling prices. Confidence: low. Sources:
[Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html)
[Greater Toronto Area Real Estate Market Ranks #2 Among Canada’s Top-Performing Markets - REMAX Canada](https://blog.remax.ca/greater-toronto-area-real-estate-market/)
[Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html)

Assumptions: Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2.25% through Q4 2026; Pandemic-era mortgage renewals proceed without significant delinquency spikes; No major new transit infrastructure opens in Markham within the forecast window. What would reverse this: A sharp rise in five-year bond yields above 4.0% could push fixed mortgage rates higher, reducing borrowing capacity and slowing demand. Alternatively, if TRREB's tightening trend continues, inventory could drop below 3 months, reversing buyer leverage and shifting the market back toward seller-favorable conditions. Sources:
[Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast](https://meetmatthew.ca/markham-real-estate-market-2026)
[Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates)
[Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/)
[Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals)
[Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html)
[Greater Toronto Area Real Estate Market Ranks #2 Among Canada’s Top-Performing Markets - REMAX Canada](https://blog.remax.ca/greater-toronto-area-real-estate-market/)

## Sources

- [Markham Housing Market Report | Feb 2026 Prices & Forecast](https://meetmatthew.ca/markham-real-estate-market-2026): Observation reference period: 28 February 2026. Scope: city, Markham, ON.
- [New Pre Construction Homes in Markham, Ontario (2026) | Condomonk](https://condomonk.ca/markham): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Markham, ON; city.
- [Search Results for “market watch” – TRREB](https://trreb.ca/?s=market+watch): First captured 18 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: Region, ON.
- [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA.
- [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: Region, ON.
- [Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals): First captured 21 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA.
- [Ontario Student Housing Deliveries Set to Reach Record in 2026 | Urbanation](https://www.urbanation.ca/news/ontario-student-housing-deliveries-set-reach-record-2026): First captured 17 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: Region, ON.
- [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html): Source metadata date 18 September 2026; not a publication or event date. Scope: National, CA.
- [Bur Oak Secondary School](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/220406701): date unavailable. Scope: city.
- [Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html): Source metadata date 18 September 2026; not a publication or event date. Scope: National, CA.
- [Greater Toronto Area Real Estate Market Ranks #2 Among Canada’s Top-Performing Markets - REMAX Canada](https://blog.remax.ca/greater-toronto-area-real-estate-market/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: Region, ON.

Prepared by Aurynge with AI-assisted research and writing. See /methodology for the evidence and publication policy.