# Kelly: Hamilton's 5.0% Price Drop and 6-Month Inventory Signal a Buyer's Shift Hamilton's average home price fell 5.0% year-over-year to $736,731 as inventory reached 6 months of supply in August 2026. The market balance has shifted toward buyers, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 45% signaling increased negotiating power in the region. Published 2026-10-11. Evidence snapshot 2026-10-12. ## Key facts and reporting periods - Sales Volume: 10 count. Property type: Condominium. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://storeys.com/cities/hamilton/) - Mortgage Rate: 3.25 percent. Property type: All. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market) - Average Sale Price: 779000 cad. Property type: SingleFamily. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-09. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market) - Average Sale Price: 660000 cad. Property type: SingleFamily. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-09. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market) - Average Sale Price: 591000 cad. Property type: Townhouse. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-09. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market) - Average Sale Price: 380000 cad. Property type: Apartment. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-09. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market) - Average Sale Price: 499000 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-09. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market) - Average Sale Price: 714420 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-09. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market) ## Market summary Hamilton's average home price fell 5.0% year-over-year to $736,731 as inventory reached 6 months of supply in August 2026. The market balance has shifted toward buyers, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 45% signaling increased negotiating power in the region. ## Central finding Hamilton's housing market has shifted into a buyer's environment, with the average sale price falling 5.0% year-over-year to $736,731 and inventory reaching 6 months of supply in August 2026. This softening is driven by a combination of rising active listings and a sales-to-new-listings ratio that has settled at 45%, placing the market at the threshold of balanced conditions but favoring buyers in negotiations. Sources: [Hamilton & Burlington Housing Market Statistics | MLS® Data](https://www.viewhomes.ca/blog/hamilton-housing-market-statistics/) [City of Hamilton Housing Market Report: 20th Sep, 2026 | Wahi](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/hamilton/city-of-hamilton) [Hamilton Housing Market Report: Sep. 9th, 2026 Update | Interactive Map - WOWA.ca](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market) ## How the numbers connect The Hamilton average sale price declined by approximately 5.0% between September 2025 and August 2026. Calculation: ($736,731 - $775,745) / $775,745 = -$39,014 / $775,745 = -5.03% Definitions: Average Sale Price is the mean transaction price for all property types in Hamilton. The year-over-year change compares August 2026 to August 2025. Limit: This calculation compares two city-level average prices from different sources and periods. It does not establish a neighbourhood-level price change or account for shifts in property mix between the two dates. Sources: [Hamilton & Burlington Housing Market Statistics | MLS® Data](https://www.viewhomes.ca/blog/hamilton-housing-market-statistics/) [Hamilton-Burlington Real Estate Market Update September 2025](https://www.stjeanrealty.com/hamilton-burlington-real-estate-market-update-september-2025/) ## Price Softening and Inventory Build Define Hamilton's Buyer Advantage In Hamilton, the average sale price for all property types fell 5.0% year-over-year to $736,731 in August 2026, marking a clear shift in market dynamics. This decline coincides with a rise in months of inventory to 6.0 for all property types, a level that explicitly characterizes the market as a buyer's environment. The sales-to-new-listings ratio stood at 45% in the Hamilton Region, placing it at the threshold of balanced conditions but leaning toward buyer leverage. These figures, measured at the city level, do not establish specific outcomes for the Kelly neighbourhood but provide the regional context in which local transactions occur. The contrast between the 5.0% price drop and the 45% sales ratio highlights a market where supply is outpacing demand. While the MLS Home Price Index eased only 0.2% month-over-month to $728,400, the year-over-year decline of 3.9% confirms a sustained period of adjustment. For residents in Kelly, this means that while local data is not separately reported, the prevailing city-wide conditions suggest that sellers are facing more competition and buyers have greater room to negotiate terms and price. Sources: [Hamilton & Burlington Housing Market Statistics | MLS® Data](https://www.viewhomes.ca/blog/hamilton-housing-market-statistics/) [City of Hamilton Housing Market Report: 20th Sep, 2026 | Wahi](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/hamilton/city-of-hamilton) [Hamilton Housing Market Report: Sep. 9th, 2026 Update | Interactive Map - WOWA.ca](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market) ## Stable Rates and Renewal Pressures Shape Financing Constraints The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% in July 2026, keeping lenders' prime rate at 4.45% and leaving variable mortgage payments unchanged for existing borrowers. However, the lowest available five-year fixed mortgage rate in Canada was 4.24% as of September 18, 2026, with rising five-year Government of Canada bond yields near 3.65% exerting upward pressure on fixed rates. This stability in policy rates provides some predictability for borrowers, but the cost of refinancing pandemic-era mortgages remains a significant factor, with an average 15% increase in monthly payments expected for those renewing over the next year. These financing conditions affect the broader Canadian market and, by extension, Hamilton. While no target-scoped source measures the specific impact on Kelly's demand or prices, the national mechanism of rising renewal costs and stable policy rates suggests that affordability pressures persist. Buyers in the region may find themselves balancing the current low variable rates against the higher costs of fixed-rate renewals, influencing their decision to enter or exit the market. Sources: [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) [Real Estate News Headlines from Across Canada | STOREYS](https://storeys.com/real-estate-news/) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) ## Federal Infrastructure Funds and Provincial Delivery Targets The Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund (CHIF) allocates $6 billion over 10 years to support housing-enabling infrastructure, with communities over 30,000 required to implement zoning changes allowing four units as-of-right to qualify. Additionally, the Build Communities Strong Fund provides $51 billion over 10 years starting in 2026-27 for public infrastructure, including housing. These federal initiatives aim to remove bottlenecks and support development, though their direct impact on private housing supply in Hamilton depends on municipal implementation and project selection. In Ontario, student housing deliveries are set to reach a record in 2026, with the Greater Toronto Area leading with 2,734 projected completions. While this provincial focus on student housing does not directly measure residential delivery in Kelly, it reflects a broader trend of targeted construction that may influence overall housing stock and rental markets in the region. The completion deadlines for CHIF projects, set for September 2031 and 2033, indicate a long-term horizon for infrastructure-enabled housing growth. Sources: [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html) [Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html) [Ontario Student Housing Deliveries Set to Reach Record in 2026 | Urbanation](https://www.urbanation.ca/news/ontario-student-housing-deliveries-set-reach-record-2026) ## Municipal Shortfalls and Local Policy Implications A report from the University of Ottawa found that Toronto is falling well short of its housing targets, along with 22 of the 34 other municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe. This broader pattern of unmet housing goals suggests that Hamilton may also face challenges in meeting its own development targets, although specific local data for Kelly is not provided in the retained evidence. The implication is that housing supply growth may remain constrained by planning and approval processes, affecting the pace of new construction in the area. However, the regional context of missed housing targets and the federal push for density through CHIF conditions create a backdrop where local planning decisions will play a crucial role in determining future supply. Residents and agents should monitor municipal announcements for any updates on zoning changes or development approvals that could impact the local housing landscape. Sources: [Hamilton-Burlington Real Estate Market Update September 2025](https://www.stjeanrealty.com/hamilton-burlington-real-estate-market-update-september-2025/) ## The strongest counter-case While city-wide metrics show cooling, the MLS Home Price Index for Hamilton eased only 0.2% month-over-month to $728,400, suggesting the rate of decline may be stabilizing. Additionally, national forecasts indicate that pent-up demand and lower bond yields could support a gradual rise in sales through the second half of 2026, which might counteract local inventory pressure if financing costs continue to ease. Sources: [Hamilton & Burlington Housing Market Statistics | MLS® Data](https://www.viewhomes.ca/blog/hamilton-housing-market-statistics/) [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate](https://economics.td.com/RealEstate) ## Living here City-level amenities mapped near Kelly include Canadian Martyrs Catholic Elementary School, Lisgar Junior Public School, and Dundana Public School. Parks such as Bertram Brockhouse Park, Andrew Warburton Memorial Park, and Belview Park are also recorded. Transit stops like Emerson at Main and Emerson at Royal, along with grocery anchors Somali Market and Binbrook Food Market, are part of the broader city amenity set. Sources: [Canadian Martyrs Catholic Elementary School](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/313773804) ## The early signal Months of Inventory (MOI) for all property types in Hamilton, which rose to 6 months in August 2026. How it reaches the market: As months of inventory rises above the 4-6 month balanced range, sellers face more competition, leading to longer days on market and eventual price concessions. In Hamilton, the jump to 6 months of inventory signals that supply is outpacing absorption, directly pressuring the average sale price. Typical lead time: Months of inventory typically leads price changes by one to two quarters as it reflects the immediate balance of supply and demand before transaction prices fully adjust. Sources: [City of Hamilton Housing Market Report: 20th Sep, 2026 | Wahi](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/hamilton/city-of-hamilton) ## Next 3 months, through December 2026 Prices: flat. Flat to slightly falling (0-2%) for the Hamilton region; this is not a measured target-locality result for Kelly. Why: Current 6 months of inventory and 45% sales-to-new-listings ratio in Hamilton suggest continued buyer leverage. The 5.0% year-over-year price decline indicates downward momentum that is unlikely to reverse immediately given the high supply levels. Buyers: buy now. Buyers benefit from high inventory and a 45% sales-to-new-listings ratio, allowing for stronger negotiation positions and potential price concessions in the current market. Sellers: wait. Sellers face a buyer's market with 6 months of inventory; waiting may allow for better timing if seasonal demand picks up, though pricing must remain competitive. Watch: A drop in months of inventory below 4.5 or a sales-to-new-listings ratio exceeding 55% would signal a shift back to seller leverage. Confidence: moderate. Sources: [City of Hamilton Housing Market Report: 20th Sep, 2026 | Wahi](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/hamilton/city-of-hamilton) [Hamilton & Burlington Housing Market Statistics | MLS® Data](https://www.viewhomes.ca/blog/hamilton-housing-market-statistics/) ## Next 6 months, through March 2027 Prices: rising. Rising (1-3%) for the Hamilton region as pent-up demand potentially offsets inventory; this is not a measured target-locality result for Kelly. Why: National forecasts suggest sales may grind higher in late 2026 due to pent-up demand, but local Hamilton inventory remains elevated. The 5.0% price decline suggests that any recovery will be gradual and dependent on sustained demand growth. Buyers: either way. Buyers can still negotiate, but should monitor for signs of inventory reduction. Acting now secures current pricing, while waiting risks missing out if demand rebounds faster than expected. Sellers: list now. Sellers should list now to capitalize on any early signs of demand recovery, ensuring their property is visible as the market begins to tighten. Watch: A sustained increase in new listings or a further decline in sales volume would indicate that the recovery is stalling, keeping prices flat or falling. Confidence: low. Sources: [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate](https://economics.td.com/RealEstate) [Hamilton & Burlington Housing Market Statistics | MLS® Data](https://www.viewhomes.ca/blog/hamilton-housing-market-statistics/) ## Next 12 months, through September 2027 Prices: rising. Rising (2-5%) for the Hamilton region as long-term supply constraints and demographic factors exert upward pressure; this is not a measured target-locality result for Kelly. Why: Long-term trends depend on the pace of housing completions and financing costs. With the Bank of Canada holding rates steady and national supply gaps persisting, prices may stabilize or rise modestly as the market finds a new equilibrium. Buyers: wait. Waiting allows buyers to observe whether the market tightens significantly. If inventory remains high, they can continue to negotiate; if it drops, they may need to act quickly. Sellers: either way. Sellers have flexibility depending on urgency. Listing now captures current market conditions, while waiting may yield higher prices if the long-term upward trend materializes. Watch: A significant increase in housing starts or a major rate cut could accelerate price growth, while a recession or job loss spike could reverse the trend. Confidence: low. Sources: [Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals) [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/orea/) Assumptions: The Bank of Canada maintains its policy rate at 2.25% through the next quarter; No significant new large-scale residential developments are completed in the immediate vicinity of Kelly within the forecast window; National economic conditions remain stable without major trade-related disruptions affecting local employment. What would reverse this: A sudden drop in interest rates or a surge in immigration-driven demand could rapidly reduce inventory levels, shifting the market back to seller-favorable conditions within six months. Sources: [City of Hamilton Housing Market Report: 20th Sep, 2026 | Wahi](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/hamilton/city-of-hamilton) [Hamilton & Burlington Housing Market Statistics | MLS® Data](https://www.viewhomes.ca/blog/hamilton-housing-market-statistics/) [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate](https://economics.td.com/RealEstate) [Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals) [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/orea/) ## Sources - [Hamilton & Burlington Housing Market Statistics | MLS® Data](https://www.viewhomes.ca/blog/hamilton-housing-market-statistics/): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Hamilton, ON. - [City of Hamilton Housing Market Report: 20th Sep, 2026 | Wahi](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/hamilton/city-of-hamilton): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Hamilton, ON. - [Hamilton Housing Market Report: Sep. 9th, 2026 Update | Interactive Map - WOWA.ca](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market): Source reference date 9 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Hamilton, ON. - [Hamilton-Burlington Real Estate Market Update September 2025](https://www.stjeanrealty.com/hamilton-burlington-real-estate-market-update-september-2025/): Observation reference period: 30 September 2025. Scope: city, Hamilton, ON. - [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate](https://economics.td.com/RealEstate): First captured 18 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Real Estate News Headlines from Across Canada | STOREYS](https://storeys.com/real-estate-news/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html): Source metadata date 18 September 2026; not a publication or event date. Scope: National, CA. - [Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html): Source metadata date 18 September 2026; not a publication or event date. Scope: National, CA. - [Ontario Student Housing Deliveries Set to Reach Record in 2026 | Urbanation](https://www.urbanation.ca/news/ontario-student-housing-deliveries-set-reach-record-2026): First captured 17 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: Province, ON. - [Canadian Martyrs Catholic Elementary School](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/313773804): date unavailable. Scope: city. - [Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals): First captured 21 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/orea/): Source reference date 18 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: provincial, ON; Province, ON. Prepared by Aurynge with AI-assisted research and writing. See /methodology for the evidence and publication policy.