# Cartwright Point: Kingston's Inventory Surge Creates Buyer Leverage Amid Rising Mortgage Costs Kingston's months of inventory reached 5.8 in August 2026, far exceeding the 3.6-month seasonal norm, as new residential listings hit a decade-high of 562 units. This supply surge, coupled with rising mortgage rates, shifts leverage to buyers, though price declines remain modest so far. Published 2026-10-11. Evidence snapshot 2026-10-12. ## Key facts and reporting periods - Average Sale Price: 620087 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Kingston, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king/) - Average Sale Price: 620087 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Kingston, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king) - Benchmark Price: 566800 cad. Property type: SingleFamily. Scope: Kingston, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king/) - Benchmark Price: 403300 cad. Property type: Townhouse. Scope: Kingston, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king/) - Benchmark Price: 566800 cad. Property type: SingleFamily. Scope: Kingston, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king) - Benchmark Price: 403300 cad. Property type: Townhouse. Scope: Kingston, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king) - Sales Volume: 2179 units. Property type: All. Scope: Kingston, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king/) - Sales Volume: 2179 units. Property type: All. Scope: Kingston, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king) ## Market summary Kingston's months of inventory reached 5.8 in August 2026, far exceeding the 3.6-month seasonal norm, as new residential listings hit a decade-high of 562 units. This supply surge, coupled with rising mortgage rates, shifts leverage to buyers, though price declines remain modest so far. ## Central finding Kingston's housing market has shifted decisively toward buyers, with months of inventory at 5.8 in August 2026, well above the 3.6-month seasonal norm, while new residential listings hit a decade-high of 562 units. This supply surge, combined with rising mortgage rates and a wave of pandemic-era renewals, creates negotiating leverage for buyers and downward pressure on prices, though the MLS HPI composite benchmark price remains essentially flat at $550,100. Sources: [Kingston and Area Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king) [Kingston and Area Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king/) [Kingston Housing Market Report: 20th Sep, 2026 | Wahi](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/frontenac/kingston) ## How the numbers connect Kingston's months of inventory are 61% above the long-run seasonal average for August. Calculation: 5.8 months (August 2026) - 3.6 months (long-run August average) = 2.2 months excess. 2.2 / 3.6 = 61% above the seasonal norm. Definitions: Months of inventory is the ratio of active listings to monthly sales. The long-run average of 3.6 months is specific to the month of August, representing a balanced market condition for that season. Limit: This calculation compares a single month's observation to a historical seasonal average. It does not establish a sustained trend or structural change in the Kingston housing market. Sources: [Kingston and Area Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king) ## Inventory Surge Shifts Kingston Market to Buyer Leverage Kingston's housing market has experienced a significant shift toward buyers, with months of inventory reaching 5.8 at the end of August 2026, well above the long-run seasonal average of 3.6 months for that time of year. This level of inventory indicates that it would take nearly six months to sell the current stock of homes at the prevailing rate of sales activity, a clear departure from the balanced market conditions seen in previous years. The increase is driven by a surge in new residential listings, which totaled 562 units in August 2026, marking the highest number for an August in a decade and a 13.3% increase from the same month in 2025. Despite this supply expansion, price movements have remained modest. The overall MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark price stood at $550,100 in August 2026, up just 0.2% compared to August 2025, while the average sale price increased by 2.7% to $612,691. This divergence between high inventory and stable prices suggests that sellers are not yet aggressively cutting prices, possibly due to limited buyer demand or strategic pricing decisions. For buyers in Cartwright Point, this environment offers greater negotiating power and a wider selection of properties, although these city-level figures do not measure neighbourhood-specific outcomes. Sources: [Kingston and Area Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king) [Kingston and Area Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king/) ## Rising Rates and Renewal Wave Constrain Demand Financing conditions are adding pressure to the already soft demand side of the Kingston market. As of September 18, 2026, the lowest available five-year fixed mortgage rate in Canada is 4.24%, while the Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25%. Rising five-year Government of Canada bond yields near 3.65% are exerting upward pressure on fixed rates, potentially pushing them higher in the coming weeks. These higher borrowing costs reduce household disposable income and borrowing capacity, directly impacting affordability and dampening demand for residential properties. Compounding this effect is the final phase of the pandemic-era mortgage renewal cycle. Over the next year, approximately 12% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages will come up for renewal, with borrowers facing an average 15% increase in monthly payments. While national mortgage delinquency rates remain low at 0.24%, indicating that most borrowers are absorbing these higher payments, the cumulative effect of rising rates and renewals is likely to keep demand subdued in Kingston. No supplied target-scope transaction series establishes whether these broader financing conditions have specifically changed demand or prices in Cartwright Point. Sources: [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [Kingston Interest Rate Changes | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king-interest-rate-changes) ## Federal Infrastructure Funds Shape Long-Term Supply Long-term housing supply in Kingston is influenced by federal infrastructure initiatives designed to enable new construction. The Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund (CHIF), established with $6 billion over 10 years, supports housing-enabling water, wastewater, stormwater, and solid waste infrastructure. To qualify for CHIF funding, communities with populations over 30,000 must implement zoning changes allowing four units as-of-right, a requirement that encourages denser development patterns. Additionally, the Build Communities Strong Fund will provide $51 billion over 10 years starting in 2026-27, supporting public infrastructure projects related to housing, transit, and climate adaptation. These federal investments aim to remove bottlenecks that constrain housing supply, indirectly supporting development and potentially improving affordability through increased density. In Ontario, student housing deliveries are set to reach a record in 2026, with the Greater Toronto Area leading with 2,734 projected completions, representing 43% of the provincial total. While these measures primarily affect larger urban centers, they signal a broader policy commitment to expanding housing supply, which may gradually influence development activity in Kingston over the coming years. Sources: [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html) [Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html) [Ontario Student Housing Deliveries Set to Reach Record in 2026 | Urbanation](https://www.urbanation.ca/news/ontario-student-housing-deliveries-set-reach-record-2026) ## Local Policy Initiatives Target Rental Growth The City of Kingston is actively pursuing strategies to address housing shortages and support projected population growth. A new Community Improvement Plan offers property tax incentives to stimulate the construction of rental housing within urban boundaries, with applications open from June 13, 2024, through December 31, 2026. This program targets developers who create new apartment buildings with at least seven rental units that result in increased property taxes, aiming to boost the rental supply in areas where vacancy rates have declined. In 2023, the City's Planning Services exceeded the Provincial Housing Target by issuing 800 building permits, demonstrating a commitment to increasing housing supply. Despite this increase in new construction approvals, the rental vacancy rate for the Kingston Census Metropolitan Area declined to 0.8 per cent in 2023, highlighting the ongoing challenge of meeting demand. These local policy initiatives, combined with federal infrastructure funding, form a multi-faceted approach to addressing housing affordability and availability in Kingston, though their direct impact on Cartwright Point remains unmeasured in the supplied evidence. Sources: [Winter and Spring Planning News | City of Kingston](https://www.cityofkingston.ca/news/posts/winter-and-spring-planning-news/) [New incentives to encourage rental housing development now available | City of Kingston](https://www.cityofkingston.ca/news/posts/new-incentives-to-encourage-rental-housing-development-now-available/) ## The strongest counter-case The strongest counterforce is the near-flat price performance: the MLS HPI composite benchmark price rose only 0.2% year-over-year to $550,100 in August 2026, and the average sale price increased by 2.7% to $612,691. This suggests that despite high inventory, sellers are not yet cutting prices significantly, possibly due to limited buyer demand or strategic pricing. Additionally, national mortgage delinquency rates remain low at 0.24%, indicating that most borrowers are absorbing higher payments without defaulting, which could stabilize the market against further declines. Sources: [Kingston and Area Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king/) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) ## Living here City-level amenities mapped in Kingston include schools such as Cataraqui Woods Elementary School and Quintilian School, parks like Sibbit Park, dog parks including Gore Road Dog Park, transit stops on Francis Street and Henderson Boulevard, childcare centres like Henderson Child Care Centre, grocery stores such as Patel Indian and The Common Market, and recreation facilities including Centre Culturel Frontenac. Sources: [School](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/1130702347) ## The early signal New residential listings in Kingston reached 562 units in August 2026, the highest count for that month in ten years, up 13.3% from August 2025. How it reaches the market: A surge in new listings increases the active inventory pool. If sales volume does not rise proportionally, months of inventory increases, signaling a shift from a seller's to a buyer's market. This imbalance pressures sellers to reduce prices or extend days on market to attract buyers, eventually leading to lower transaction prices. Typical lead time: New listings typically lead changes in months of inventory and price adjustments by one to two months, as they directly increase the denominator of the inventory ratio before sales activity adjusts. Sources: [Kingston and Area Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king/) [Kingston and Area Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king) ## Next 3 months, through December 2026 Prices: flat. Flat to slightly falling prices in Kingston; not a measured Cartwright Point result. Why: High inventory (5.8 months) and record new listings (562 units) in Kingston create immediate buyer leverage. Rising fixed mortgage rates (lowest 5-year at 4.24%) and the start of the pandemic renewal wave (15% payment increase for 12% of mortgages) suppress demand. Price direction is flat because HPI is already stable at $550,100 (+0.2% YoY). Buyers: buy now. Buyers gain maximum negotiating power due to high inventory and subdued sales activity. Acting now allows them to secure properties at current stable prices before potential rate hikes further cool demand. Sellers: wait. Sellers face a buyer's market with high competition. Waiting may allow for better timing if rates stabilize, but acting now risks longer days on market and price reductions. Watch: A significant drop in new listings below 500 units or a sharp decline in mortgage rates below 4.0% would signal a return to balanced conditions. Confidence: moderate. Sources: [Kingston and Area Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king) [Kingston and Area Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king/) [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) ## Next 6 months, through March 2027 Prices: falling. Slightly falling prices in Kingston; not a measured Cartwright Point result. Why: Continued high inventory and the peak of the mortgage renewal wave (12% of mortgages affected) will keep demand suppressed. Ontario's overall HPI declined 3.6% YoY, suggesting broader provincial softness. Kingston's flat HPI may give way to slight declines as sellers adjust to prolonged market exposure. Buyers: buy now. Buyers can expect continued leverage and potentially lower prices as sellers who have been on the market for several months become more motivated. Financing costs remain high, but property prices offer offsetting value. Sellers: wait. Sellers should wait for potential rate stabilization or a seasonal spring uptick in demand. Listing now likely results in extended marketing periods and price concessions. Watch: An increase in sales volume by more than 10% month-over-month or a decrease in months of inventory below 5.0 would indicate a market recovery. Confidence: moderate. Sources: [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/orea/) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [Kingston and Area Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king) ## Next 12 months, through September 2027 Prices: flat. Stabilizing prices in Kingston; not a measured Cartwright Point result. Why: By late 2027, the pandemic renewal wave will be largely complete, removing a key headwind for affordability. However, the legacy of high inventory and potential economic slowdown from trade tensions (per CREA) may keep prices soft. Federal infrastructure funds ($51B Build Communities Strong Fund) may begin to influence local development, but effects are long-term. Buyers: either way. Buyers can act either now or later, as prices are expected to stabilize. Those seeking to lock in financing may benefit from acting sooner, while those waiting for further price drops may see minimal additional gains. Sellers: either way. Sellers can list either now or later, depending on urgency. Prices are expected to hold steady, so there is no strong incentive to delay unless seeking to align with a specific life event. Watch: A sustained increase in new housing starts or completions in Kingston, or a significant shift in national monetary policy, would alter the price trajectory. Confidence: low. Sources: [CREA | REALTOR® Recommendations](https://www.crea.ca/advocacy/realtor-recommendations/) [Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html) [Kingston and Area Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king) Assumptions: Mortgage rates will remain elevated or continue to rise slightly over the next 12 months due to global bond yield trends; The wave of pandemic-era mortgage renewals will continue to impact approximately 12% of outstanding mortgages over the next year; No major new housing developments or policy changes will occur in Cartwright Point that would alter local supply dynamics within the forecast period. What would reverse this: If the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates unexpectedly or if federal infrastructure funding accelerates local development, demand could rebound, reducing inventory and stabilizing or increasing prices faster than projected. Sources: [Kingston and Area Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king) [Kingston and Area Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king/) [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/orea/) [CREA | REALTOR® Recommendations](https://www.crea.ca/advocacy/realtor-recommendations/) ## Sources - [Kingston and Area Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Kingston, ON. - [Kingston and Area Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king/): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Kingston, ON. - [Kingston Housing Market Report: 20th Sep, 2026 | Wahi](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/frontenac/kingston): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Kingston, ON; city. - [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Kingston Interest Rate Changes | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/king-interest-rate-changes): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: City, Kingston, ON. - [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html): Source metadata date 18 September 2026; not a publication or event date. Scope: National, CA. - [Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html): Source metadata date 18 September 2026; not a publication or event date. Scope: National, CA. - [Ontario Student Housing Deliveries Set to Reach Record in 2026 | Urbanation](https://www.urbanation.ca/news/ontario-student-housing-deliveries-set-reach-record-2026): First captured 17 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: Province, ON. - [Winter and Spring Planning News | City of Kingston](https://www.cityofkingston.ca/news/posts/winter-and-spring-planning-news/): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Kingston, ON. - [New incentives to encourage rental housing development now available | City of Kingston](https://www.cityofkingston.ca/news/posts/new-incentives-to-encourage-rental-housing-development-now-available/): Source metadata date 20 September 2026; not a publication or event date. Scope: scope unavailable. - [School](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/1130702347): date unavailable. Scope: city. - [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/orea/): Source reference date 18 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: provincial, ON; Province, ON. - [CREA | REALTOR® Recommendations](https://www.crea.ca/advocacy/realtor-recommendations/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. Prepared by Aurynge with AI-assisted research and writing. See /methodology for the evidence and publication policy.