# Hales Barton: Guelph's Apartment Inventory Doubles to 9.8 Months as City Sales Fall 10% Guelph apartment months of inventory reached 9.8 at the end of Q4 2025, up from 3.9 a year earlier, while city-wide residential sales fell 10% in 2025. These city-level measures are not measured at the Hales Barton neighbourhood level. Published 2026-10-11. Evidence snapshot 2026-10-12. ## Key facts and reporting periods - Median Sale Price: 930000 cad. Property type: SingleFamily. Scope: Guelph, ON. Reporting date: 2025-12-31. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-median-price) - Median Sale Price: 771000 cad. Property type: Townhouse. Scope: Guelph, ON. Reporting date: 2025-12-31. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-median-price) - Median Sale Price: 492500 cad. Property type: Apartment. Scope: Guelph, ON. Reporting date: 2025-12-31. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-median-price) - Sales Volume: 27.5 count. Property type: SingleFamily. Scope: Guelph, ON. Reporting date: 2025-12-31. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-market-conditions/) - Sales Volume: 25 count. Property type: Townhouse. Scope: Guelph, ON. Reporting date: 2025-12-31. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-market-conditions/) - Sales Volume: 44 count. Property type: Apartment. Scope: Guelph, ON. Reporting date: 2025-12-31. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-market-conditions/) - Sales Volume: 27.5 count. Property type: SingleFamily. Scope: Guelph, ON. Reporting date: 2025-12-31. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-market-conditions) - Sales Volume: 25 count. Property type: Townhouse. Scope: Guelph, ON. Reporting date: 2025-12-31. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-market-conditions) ## Market summary Guelph apartment months of inventory reached 9.8 at the end of Q4 2025, up from 3.9 a year earlier, while city-wide residential sales fell 10% in 2025. These city-level measures are not measured at the Hales Barton neighbourhood level. ## Central finding The sharpest measured shift in the Guelph market is the near-tripling of apartment months of inventory from 3.9 to 9.8 between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025, coinciding with a 10% decline in annual city sales. This indicates a significant oversupply in the apartment segment relative to sales pace, creating downward price pressure and buyer leverage across the city, though no target-scope transaction data confirms this specific outcome in Hales Barton. Sources: [Guelph Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-market-conditions) [Guelph Residential Activity | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-residential-activity) ## How the numbers connect Apartment inventory growth rate in Guelph from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025. Calculation: (9.8 - 3.9) / 3.9 * 100 = 151.3% Definitions: Months of inventory for apartment units in Guelph; point-in-time snapshot at end of fourth quarter. Limit: Does not establish a sustained trend or cause; only a change between two dated observations. Sources: [Guelph Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-market-conditions) ## Apartment Oversupply Drives City-Wide Price Pressure In Guelph, months of inventory for apartment units surged to 9.8 at the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, up from 3.9 at the end of the fourth quarter of 2024. This represents a 151.3% increase in supply relative to sales activity, signaling a substantial surplus of listings. Concurrently, total residential property sales in Guelph numbered 4,260 units in 2025, down 10% from 4,734 units in 2024. The combination of rising inventory and falling sales volume creates a clear buyer's market dynamic for apartments within the city. These city-level measurements are not measured at the Hales Barton neighbourhood level. However, the mechanism of excess supply reducing seller urgency applies broadly where similar inventory conditions exist. For buyers in Hales Barton, the city-wide apartment oversupply suggests increased negotiating leverage and potential price concessions if local inventory mirrors the city average. Sellers should anticipate longer days on market, as median days for sold apartments in Guelph extended to 44 in Q4 2025, up from 28 in Q4 2024. Sources: [Guelph Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-market-conditions) [Guelph Residential Activity | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-residential-activity) [Guelph Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-market-conditions/) ## Mortgage Renewals and Rate Stability Shape Borrower Capacity Nationally, the last of the five-year fixed-rate mortgages taken out during the pandemic will come up for renewal over the next year, representing approximately 12% of all outstanding mortgages. On average, these borrowers can expect their monthly payments to increase by 15%. As of September 18, 2026, the lowest available five-year fixed mortgage rate in Canada is 4.24%, while the Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% on September 2, 2026. Rising five-year Government of Canada bond yields near 3.65% are exerting upward pressure on fixed rates, potentially pushing them higher in the coming weeks. The 15% payment increase reduces household disposable income for renewing borrowers, which could dampen new purchase demand if they choose to stay put rather than move. For prospective buyers in Hales Barton, the stability of variable rates offers some predictability, but the risk of rising fixed rates may encourage those with upcoming renewals to delay purchases until rates stabilize further. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) ## Federal Infrastructure Funds Target Housing-Enabling Projects The Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund (CHIF) provides $6 billion over 10 years to accelerate the construction and upgrading of housing-enabling water, wastewater, stormwater, and solid waste infrastructure. Communities with populations over 30,000 must implement zoning changes allowing four units as-of-right to qualify for CHIF funding. Under the Direct Delivery stream, projects must be substantially completed by September 2031, while those under the Provincial and Territorial Agreement stream have a completion deadline of September 2033. These federal funds support public infrastructure broadly, not exclusively residential development, and specific allocation to housing projects depends on future project selection. In Ontario, student housing deliveries are set to reach a record in 2026, with the Greater Toronto Area leading projected completions. The impact on local housing mix or character remains unmeasured in the current dataset. Sources: [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html) [Ontario Student Housing Deliveries Set to Reach Record in 2026 | Urbanation](https://www.urbanation.ca/news/ontario-student-housing-deliveries-set-reach-record-2026) ## The strongest counter-case Single detached home inventory rose more moderately from 3.8 to 6.2 months over the same period, suggesting the oversupply is concentrated in the apartment segment rather than uniform across all property types. Additionally, national mortgage delinquency rates remain low at 0.24%, indicating that despite payment increases, most borrowers have absorbed higher costs without defaulting, which may limit the severity of demand contraction. Sources: [Guelph Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-market-conditions/) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) ## Living here Mapped inside Hales Barton are 1 school (Ecole Arbour Vista Public School), 3 parks (Jubilee Park, Macalister Park, Bathgate Park), 5 transit stops, and 5 recreation points. These counts reflect recorded map presence only and do not establish walkability, access, quality, or buyer demand. Sources: [Ecole Arbour Vista Public School](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/303667959) ## The early signal Months of inventory for apartment units in Guelph. How it reaches the market: Rising months of inventory indicates an oversupply of listings relative to sales pace, which typically leads to downward pressure on prices and increased buyer negotiating leverage as sellers face more competition. Typical lead time: Inventory levels often lead price changes by one to two quarters as the market adjusts to new supply conditions. Sources: [Guelph Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-market-conditions) ## Next 3 months, through December 2026 Prices: falling. Modest decline in Guelph apartment prices, not a measured Hales Barton result. Why: Guelph apartment months of inventory at 9.8 (Q4 2025) signals oversupply. National mortgage renewal wave (12% of mortgages) may dampen demand. No target-scope data confirms local direction. Buyers: buy now. Buyers gain negotiating leverage in a high-inventory market; acting now captures potential price concessions before any seasonal rebound. Sellers: wait. Sellers face prolonged days on market (44 days for Guelph apartments); waiting may allow for better timing if inventory normalizes, though price reductions are likely needed. Watch: A drop in Guelph apartment months of inventory below 6.0 would indicate absorption of excess supply and potential price stabilization. Confidence: moderate. Sources: [Guelph Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-market-conditions) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) ## Next 6 months, through March 2027 Prices: flat. Stabilization of Guelph apartment prices after initial adjustment, not a measured Hales Barton result. Why: Assumes partial absorption of excess inventory by early 2027. National rate stability (policy rate at 2.25%) supports moderate demand recovery. Uncertainty remains high due to lack of local data. Buyers: either way. Prices may stabilize, reducing urgency to act immediately. Buyers can wait for clearer signals on inventory trends without significant risk of missing lower prices. Sellers: either way. Market conditions may balance out, making it viable to list either now or later depending on individual circumstances and pricing strategy. Watch: Sustained rise in Guelph apartment sales volume above the 10-year average would signal demand recovery and potential price uptick. Confidence: low. Sources: [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) [Guelph Residential Activity | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-residential-activity) ## Next 12 months, through September 2027 Prices: rising. Potential modest increase in Guelph apartment prices if supply constraints ease, not a measured Hales Barton result. Why: Long-term federal infrastructure funding (CHIF) and zoning changes may boost supply capacity, but short-term oversupply dominates. National housing gap (187k-238k homes/year) implies persistent structural demand, which could support prices once local inventory normalizes. Buyers: wait. If prices begin to rise due to supply normalization, waiting may mean paying more. However, given low confidence, buyers should monitor inventory closely before committing. Sellers: list now. Sellers may benefit from listing before potential price increases erode their equity gains, especially if they need to sell within the next year. Watch: New Guelph apartment listings dropping significantly or sales velocity increasing sharply would confirm the shift toward a seller's market. Confidence: low. Sources: [Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals) [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html) Assumptions: Guelph apartment inventory trends will continue to influence local market dynamics in Hales Barton, even without direct measurement; National mortgage renewal impacts will translate to reduced demand in mid-sized cities like Guelph; Federal infrastructure funding will eventually contribute to improved housing supply capacity in Ontario communities. What would reverse this: A sudden drop in interest rates or a surge in immigration-driven demand could rapidly absorb excess apartment inventory, reversing the expected price declines and shifting the market back to a seller's advantage within six months. Sources: [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) ## Sources - [Guelph Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-market-conditions): Observation reference period: 31 December 2025. Scope: city, Guelph, ON; city. - [Guelph Residential Activity | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-residential-activity): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Guelph, ON. - [Guelph Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/guel-market-conditions/): Observation reference period: 31 December 2025. Scope: city, Guelph, ON. - [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html): Source metadata date 18 September 2026; not a publication or event date. Scope: National, CA. - [Ontario Student Housing Deliveries Set to Reach Record in 2026 | Urbanation](https://www.urbanation.ca/news/ontario-student-housing-deliveries-set-reach-record-2026): First captured 17 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: Province, ON. - [Ecole Arbour Vista Public School](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/303667959): date unavailable. Scope: neighbourhood. - [Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals): First captured 21 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. Prepared by Aurynge with AI-assisted research and writing. See /methodology for the evidence and publication policy.