# Chedoke Park Buyers Gain Leverage as Hamilton Prices Drop 5% and Inventory Hits 6 Months Hamilton's average home price dropped 5.0% from September 2025 to August 2026, while inventory climbed to 6 months of supply, creating a buyer's market. These city-level figures are not measured at the Chedoke Park neighbourhood level but suggest shifting dynamics for local transactions. Published 2026-10-11. Evidence snapshot 2026-10-12. ## Key facts and reporting periods - Sales Volume: 10 count. Property type: Condominium. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://storeys.com/cities/hamilton/) - Mortgage Rate: 3.25 percent. Property type: All. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market) - Average Sale Price: 779000 cad. Property type: SingleFamily. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-09. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market) - Average Sale Price: 660000 cad. Property type: SingleFamily. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-09. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market) - Average Sale Price: 591000 cad. Property type: Townhouse. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-09. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market) - Average Sale Price: 380000 cad. Property type: Apartment. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-09. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market) - Average Sale Price: 499000 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-09. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market) - Average Sale Price: 714420 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-09. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market) ## Market summary Hamilton's average home price dropped 5.0% from September 2025 to August 2026, while inventory climbed to 6 months of supply, creating a buyer's market. These city-level figures are not measured at the Chedoke Park neighbourhood level but suggest shifting dynamics for local transactions. ## Central finding Hamilton's housing market has shifted into buyer-favorable conditions, with the city's average sale price declining 5.0% from September 2025 to August 2026 and inventory reaching 6 months of supply in August 2026. Sources: [Hamilton-Burlington Real Estate Market Update September 2025](https://www.stjeanrealty.com/hamilton-burlington-real-estate-market-update-september-2025/) [Hamilton & Burlington Housing Market Statistics | MLS® Data](https://www.viewhomes.ca/blog/hamilton-housing-market-statistics/) [City of Hamilton Housing Market Report: 20th Sep, 2026 | Wahi](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/hamilton/city-of-hamilton) ## How the numbers connect Hamilton's average sale price fell approximately 5.0% between September 2025 and August 2026. Calculation: ($736,731 - $775,745) / $775,745 = -$39,014 / $775,745 = -5.03% Definitions: Average Sale Price for all property types in Hamilton, ON. September 2025 value from source-313e5e1b0bbf; August 2026 value from source-ab9669fcbcc8. Limit: Compares different months (Sep vs Aug) and different sources. Does not establish a Chedoke Park price change or a year-over-year trend. Sources: [Hamilton-Burlington Real Estate Market Update September 2025](https://www.stjeanrealty.com/hamilton-burlington-real-estate-market-update-september-2025/) [Hamilton & Burlington Housing Market Statistics | MLS® Data](https://www.viewhomes.ca/blog/hamilton-housing-market-statistics/) ## Hamilton Prices Fall 5% as Inventory Reaches 6 Months Hamilton's average sale price declined from $775,745 in September 2025 to $736,731 in August 2026, a 5.0% drop calculated across two city-level observations. Simultaneously, the city's months of inventory rose from 5.2 in September 2025 to 6.0 in August 2026, crossing into buyer's market territory. The sales-to-new-listings ratio stood at 45% in September 2026, within the balanced band but at the threshold where buyer leverage begins to grow. These figures are measured at the Hamilton city level and do not constitute a Chedoke Park neighbourhood measurement. The combination of falling prices and rising inventory suggests that sellers in Hamilton are facing increased competition for buyer attention. For a knowledgeable realtor advising clients in Chedoke Park, this city-level context implies that pricing strategies must be more competitive than in prior years. The 6-month inventory level means that, at current sales pace, it would take six months to sell all active listings, giving buyers substantial choice and negotiating room. This dynamic contrasts with the tighter markets seen in earlier periods when inventory was below 4 months. Sources: [Hamilton-Burlington Real Estate Market Update September 2025](https://www.stjeanrealty.com/hamilton-burlington-real-estate-market-update-september-2025/) [Hamilton & Burlington Housing Market Statistics | MLS® Data](https://www.viewhomes.ca/blog/hamilton-housing-market-statistics/) [City of Hamilton Housing Market Report: 20th Sep, 2026 | Wahi](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/hamilton/city-of-hamilton) [Hamilton Housing Market Report: Sep. 9th, 2026 Update | Interactive Map - WOWA.ca](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market) ## Stable Rates Mask Renewal Pressure on Borrowers The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% in July 2026, keeping lenders' prime rate at 4.45% and leaving variable mortgage payments unchanged for existing borrowers. As of September 18, 2026, the lowest available five-year fixed mortgage rate in Canada was 4.24%, while two-year and three-year fixed rates remained below 4%. Despite this stability, rising five-year Government of Canada bond yields near 3.65% are exerting upward pressure on fixed rates, potentially pushing them higher in the coming weeks. These financing conditions apply nationally and do not establish a specific Chedoke Park borrower outcome. The more immediate financing challenge comes from the pandemic-era mortgage renewal wave. Over the next year, the last of the five-year, fixed-rate mortgages taken out during the pandemic will come up for renewal, representing approximately 12% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages. On average, these borrowers can expect their monthly payments to increase by 15%. This renewal pressure could dampen demand as some homeowners delay purchases or exit the market entirely. For Hamilton specifically, the September 2025 rate cut of 0.25% provided initial relief, but analysts anticipated at least one additional cut before the end of 2025 if economic data aligned with expectations. Whether those cuts materialized and their impact on local demand remains to be observed in subsequent data. Sources: [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) [Real Estate News Headlines from Across Canada | STOREYS](https://storeys.com/real-estate-news/) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [Hamilton-Burlington Real Estate Market Update September 2025](https://www.stjeanrealty.com/hamilton-burlington-real-estate-market-update-september-2025/) ## Federal Infrastructure Funds Target Housing Supply Gaps The Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund, established by Budget 2024 on April 16, 2024, provides $6 billion over 10 years to accelerate construction and upgrading of housing-enabling water, wastewater, stormwater, and solid waste infrastructure. Communities with populations over 30,000 must implement zoning changes allowing four units as-of-right to qualify for CHIF funding. Municipalities and regions with populations over 300,000 must also freeze Development Charges for three years at pre-April 2, 2024 rates. The Build Communities Strong Fund adds another layer of federal support, providing $51 billion over 10 years starting in 2026-27, plus $3 billion annually ongoing, for public infrastructure including housing. The Canada Public Transit Fund will provide approximately $25 billion over 10 years starting in 2026-27 for public transit and active transportation infrastructure. In Ontario, student housing deliveries are set to reach a record in 2026, with the Greater Toronto Area leading with 2,734 projected completions representing 43% of the provincial total. Sources: [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html) [Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html) [Ontario Student Housing Deliveries Set to Reach Record in 2026 | Urbanation](https://www.urbanation.ca/news/ontario-student-housing-deliveries-set-reach-record-2026) [Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals) ## University Report Highlights Golden Horseshoe Shortfalls A new report from the University of Ottawa found that Toronto is falling well short of its housing targets along with 22 of the 34 other municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe. This finding places Hamilton within a broader regional context where housing delivery has not kept pace with growth targets. The report underscores that the supply challenges facing Hamilton are part of a systemic issue across the region, not an isolated local phenomenon. For residents and agents in Chedoke Park, this regional context suggests that any improvements in housing supply will likely depend on coordinated action across multiple municipalities and levels of government. The federal funding programs described in the previous section provide the financial framework, but local implementation requires municipal zoning changes, infrastructure upgrades, and developer participation. Sources: [Hamilton-Burlington Real Estate Market Update September 2025](https://www.stjeanrealty.com/hamilton-burlington-real-estate-market-update-september-2025/) ## The strongest counter-case The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% in July 2026, and TD Economics projects national sales will rise through the second half of 2026 supported by pent-up demand. Additionally, Ontario's August 2026 sales were the lowest in 25 years, which could signal a temporary seasonal dip rather than a sustained structural shift. The LJM Developments creditor protection case in Hamilton also introduces uncertainty about condo market confidence. Sources: [Real Estate News Headlines from Across Canada | STOREYS](https://storeys.com/real-estate-news/) [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate](https://economics.td.com/RealEstate) [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/orea/) [Hamilton | STOREYS](https://storeys.com/cities/hamilton/) ## Living here Chedoke Park contains one mapped park and four transit stops: Aberdeen at Studholme, Aberdeen opposite Studholme, Aberdeen opposite Chedoke, and Aberdeen at Chedoke. City-wide amenities include schools such as Canadian Martyrs Catholic Elementary School, Lisgar Junior Public School, and Dundana Public School, parks like Bertram Brockhouse Park, Andrew Warburton Memorial Park, and Belview Park, two dog parks, transit stops Emerson at Main and Emerson at Royal, childcare facilities Kiwanis Boys and Girls Club and Wesley Child Care - Dr. Davey, grocery stores Somali Market and Binbrook Food Market, and two recreation facilities. Sources: [Park](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/183325420) [Canadian Martyrs Catholic Elementary School](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/313773804) ## The early signal Months of Inventory in Hamilton rose from 5.2 months in September 2025 to 6.0 months in August 2026, indicating growing buyer leverage. How it reaches the market: Rising months of inventory signals excess supply relative to demand, giving buyers more options and negotiating power, which eventually pressures sellers to reduce prices to attract offers. Typical lead time: Months of inventory typically leads price changes by 1-3 months as it reflects current supply-demand balance before prices adjust. Sources: [Hamilton-Burlington Real Estate Market Update September 2025](https://www.stjeanrealty.com/hamilton-burlington-real-estate-market-update-september-2025/) [City of Hamilton Housing Market Report: 20th Sep, 2026 | Wahi](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/hamilton/city-of-hamilton) ## Next 3 months, through December 2026 Prices: flat. Flat to slightly falling (0-2%) for Hamilton city-wide; not a measured Chedoke Park result Why: Current 6-month inventory in Hamilton (August 2026) and 45% sales-to-new-listings ratio indicate balanced-to-buyer conditions. No target-scope data exists for Chedoke Park, so this is an inferred scenario based on city-level evidence. Buyers: buy now. Buyers can negotiate more effectively with 6 months of inventory available in Hamilton, potentially securing better terms or lower prices. Sellers: wait. Sellers may need to wait for inventory to normalize or price competitively to attract buyers in a 6-month supply market. Watch: A drop in Hamilton's months of inventory below 4.5 months or a rise in sales-to-new-listings ratio above 55% would indicate a return to seller leverage. Confidence: moderate. Sources: [City of Hamilton Housing Market Report: 20th Sep, 2026 | Wahi](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/hamilton/city-of-hamilton) [Hamilton Housing Market Report: Sep. 9th, 2026 Update | Interactive Map - WOWA.ca](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market) ## Next 6 months, through March 2027 Prices: falling. Falling (2-4%) for Hamilton city-wide if inventory remains elevated; not a measured Chedoke Park result Why: TD Economics projects rising national sales through H2 2026 due to pent-up demand, but Hamilton's current 6-month inventory suggests local absorption is slower. The mortgage renewal wave affecting 12% of outstanding mortgages could dampen demand if payment increases strain buyers. Buyers: either way. Buyers have time to assess whether prices stabilize further; waiting may yield additional discounts if inventory continues to build. Sellers: wait. Sellers should expect continued pressure unless they position their property competitively; waiting allows them to monitor if demand picks up as projected. Watch: A sustained increase in Hamilton's monthly sales volume above 500 units or a decrease in days on market below 35 days would signal strengthening demand. Confidence: low. Sources: [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate](https://economics.td.com/RealEstate) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) ## Next 12 months, through September 2027 Prices: flat. Uncertain (-5% to +3%) for Hamilton city-wide depending on policy implementation and rate decisions; not a measured Chedoke Park result Why: Ontario's August 2026 sales were the lowest in 25 years, suggesting deep market correction. However, federal infrastructure funding ($51 billion Build Communities Strong Fund starting 2026-27) and CHIF zoning requirements could stimulate long-term supply and demand. The outcome depends on whether these policies offset the current demand weakness. Buyers: wait. Waiting allows buyers to see if federal infrastructure investments and potential rate cuts create a more favorable entry point; current conditions may improve further. Sellers: list now. Sellers who need to move should act now while some buyer interest remains; waiting risks facing even weaker conditions if the 25-year low sales pattern persists. Watch: Announcement of specific Hamilton infrastructure projects funded by CHIF or Build Communities Strong Fund, or a Bank of Canada rate cut, would shift the outlook toward recovery. Confidence: low. Sources: [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/orea/) [Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html) [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html) Assumptions: Bank of Canada maintains policy rate near 2.25% through Q4 2026; No major new housing developments approved specifically in Chedoke Park; National economic conditions remain stable without significant trade war escalation. What would reverse this: If the Bank of Canada cuts rates aggressively in late 2026 or if pent-up demand materializes faster than expected, inventory could decline rapidly, reversing buyer leverage and pushing prices back up. A sudden increase in new listings from investors exiting the market could also accelerate price declines. Sources: [City of Hamilton Housing Market Report: 20th Sep, 2026 | Wahi](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/hamilton/city-of-hamilton) [Hamilton Housing Market Report: Sep. 9th, 2026 Update | Interactive Map - WOWA.ca](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market) [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate](https://economics.td.com/RealEstate) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/orea/) [Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html) ## Sources - [Hamilton-Burlington Real Estate Market Update September 2025](https://www.stjeanrealty.com/hamilton-burlington-real-estate-market-update-september-2025/): Observation reference period: 30 September 2025. Scope: city, Hamilton, ON. - [Hamilton & Burlington Housing Market Statistics | MLS® Data](https://www.viewhomes.ca/blog/hamilton-housing-market-statistics/): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Hamilton, ON. - [City of Hamilton Housing Market Report: 20th Sep, 2026 | Wahi](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/hamilton/city-of-hamilton): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Hamilton, ON. - [Real Estate News Headlines from Across Canada | STOREYS](https://storeys.com/real-estate-news/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate](https://economics.td.com/RealEstate): First captured 18 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/orea/): Source reference date 18 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: provincial, ON; Province, ON. - [Hamilton | STOREYS](https://storeys.com/cities/hamilton/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: City, Hamilton, ON. - [Hamilton Housing Market Report: Sep. 9th, 2026 Update | Interactive Map - WOWA.ca](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market): Source reference date 9 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Hamilton, ON. - [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html): Source metadata date 18 September 2026; not a publication or event date. Scope: National, CA. - [Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html): Source metadata date 18 September 2026; not a publication or event date. Scope: National, CA. - [Ontario Student Housing Deliveries Set to Reach Record in 2026 | Urbanation](https://www.urbanation.ca/news/ontario-student-housing-deliveries-set-reach-record-2026): First captured 17 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: Province, ON. - [Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals): First captured 21 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Park](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/183325420): date unavailable. Scope: neighbourhood. - [Canadian Martyrs Catholic Elementary School](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/313773804): date unavailable. Scope: city. Prepared by Aurynge with AI-assisted research and writing. See /methodology for the evidence and publication policy.