# Millgrove: Hamilton's 45% Sales-to-Listings Ratio Signals a Balanced Market Amid Rising Fixed Rates

Hamilton's September 2026 sales-to-new-listings ratio of 45% places the city at the threshold between buyer and seller dynamics. This balance is accompanied by a 19.35% year-over-year decline in new listings and a 3.9% drop in the MLS Home Price Index.

Published 2026-09-25. Evidence snapshot 2026-10-12.

## Key facts and reporting periods

- Sales Volume: 10 count. Property type: Condominium. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://storeys.com/cities/hamilton/)
- Mortgage Rate: 3.25 percent. Property type: All. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market)
- Average Sale Price: 779000 cad. Property type: SingleFamily. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-09. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market)
- Average Sale Price: 660000 cad. Property type: SingleFamily. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-09. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market)
- Average Sale Price: 591000 cad. Property type: Townhouse. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-09. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market)
- Average Sale Price: 380000 cad. Property type: Apartment. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-09. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market)
- Average Sale Price: 499000 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-09. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market)
- Average Sale Price: 714420 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Hamilton, ON. Reporting date: 2026-10-09. [Source](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market)

## Market summary

Hamilton's September 2026 sales-to-new-listings ratio of 45% places the city at the threshold between buyer and seller dynamics. This balance is accompanied by a 19.35% year-over-year decline in new listings and a 3.9% drop in the MLS Home Price Index.

## Central finding

The Hamilton Region recorded a Sales to New Listings Ratio of 45% in September 2026, placing the market at the threshold between seller and buyer dynamics. This balance is accompanied by a 19.35% year-over-year decline in new listings and a 3.9% drop in the MLS Home Price Index, indicating that while demand has softened, supply contraction is preventing a deeper price correction. Sources:
[Hamilton Housing Market Report: Sep. 9th, 2026 Update | Interactive Map - WOWA.ca](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market)
[City of Hamilton Housing Market Report: 20th Sep, 2026 | Wahi](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/hamilton/city-of-hamilton)
[Hamilton & Burlington Housing Market Statistics | MLS® Data](https://www.viewhomes.ca/blog/hamilton-housing-market-statistics/)

## How the numbers connect

Calculates the divergence between Hamilton's average sale price decline and the Ontario composite benchmark price decline for August 2026. Calculation: Hamilton Average Sale Price YoY Change (-4.8%) minus Ontario Composite Benchmark Price YoY Change (-3.6%) equals -1.2 percentage points. Definitions: Hamilton Average Sale Price is measured for all property types in the City of Hamilton for August 2026. Ontario Composite Benchmark Price is the MLS HPI composite for the Province of Ontario for August 2026. Limit: This calculation compares an average price metric with a benchmark index metric across different geographies (city vs. province) and does not establish a causal relationship or a target-locality outcome for Millgrove. Sources:
[Hamilton & Burlington Housing Market Statistics | MLS® Data](https://www.viewhomes.ca/blog/hamilton-housing-market-statistics/)
[Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/orea/)

## Hamilton's Balanced Threshold Masks Segment-Specific Softening

In the City of Hamilton, the sales-to-new-listings ratio stood at 45% in September 2026, a figure that sits precisely within the 40% to 60% band associated with balanced market conditions. This metric indicates that neither buyers nor sellers hold a decisive advantage, creating a negotiation environment where pricing accuracy becomes critical. The city's average sale price for all property types was $736,731 in August 2026, representing a 4.8% year-over-year decline, while the median sale price fell 5.7% to $715,000. These figures are measured at the city level and do not constitute a direct measurement of transaction activity or price trends specific to the Millgrove neighbourhood.

The broader provincial context reinforces this softening trend, with the Ontario MLS HPI composite benchmark price declining 3.6% year-over-year to $745,400 in August 2026. Within Hamilton, the decline is more pronounced in certain segments; the average price for semi-detached homes dropped 17.1% year-over-year to $645,000, while townhouses fell 13.8% to $577,000. In contrast, detached home prices were more resilient, decreasing only 2.4% to $823,000. This divergence suggests that entry-level and mid-range segments are experiencing greater price pressure than the luxury segment, a dynamic that may influence how buyers in Millgrove approach negotiations depending on the specific property type they are targeting. Sources:
[Hamilton Housing Market Report: Sep. 9th, 2026 Update | Interactive Map - WOWA.ca](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market)
[Hamilton & Burlington Housing Market Statistics | MLS® Data](https://www.viewhomes.ca/blog/hamilton-housing-market-statistics/)
[Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/orea/)
[Hamilton-Burlington Real Estate Market Update September 2025](https://www.stjeanrealty.com/hamilton-burlington-real-estate-market-update-september-2025/)

## Fixed Rate Pressure Complicates Renewal Timelines

Financing conditions in Canada present a mixed signal for prospective buyers. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% on September 2, 2026, keeping lenders' prime rate at 4.45% and leaving variable mortgage payments unchanged for existing borrowers. However, the lowest available five-year fixed mortgage rate in Canada was 4.24% as of September 18, 2026, while two-year and three-year fixed rates remained below 4%. Despite the stability in the policy rate, rising five-year Government of Canada bond yields near 3.65% are exerting upward pressure on fixed rates, potentially pushing them higher in the coming weeks. This mechanism operates at the national level and does not establish a specific change in borrowing capacity or demand outcomes for Millgrove residents.

For borrowers renewing pandemic-era five-year fixed-rate mortgages, the impact is expected to be significant. Over the next year, these renewals represent approximately 12% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages, with an average monthly payment increase of 15%. This renewal wave creates a headwind for affordability, as households face higher debt service obligations without corresponding income growth. While the Hamilton-Burlington market update from September 2025 noted a 0.25% rate cut at that time, the current environment of stable policy rates but rising bond yields suggests that the easing effect of previous cuts is being offset by term premium increases. Buyers in Millgrove should anticipate that fixed-rate financing will remain a key constraint on purchasing power through late 2026. Sources:
[Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates)
[Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/)
[Hamilton-Burlington Real Estate Market Update September 2025](https://www.stjeanrealty.com/hamilton-burlington-real-estate-market-update-september-2025/)

## Federal Infrastructure Funds Target Housing-Enabling Systems

National policy initiatives are shaping the long-term housing supply landscape, though their immediate impact on local delivery is indirect. The Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund (CHIF), established in April 2024, provides $6 billion over 10 years to accelerate the construction and upgrading of housing-enabling water, wastewater, stormwater, and solid waste infrastructure. To qualify for CHIF funding, communities with populations over 30,000 must implement zoning changes allowing four units as-of-right. This requirement directly influences land-use planning in medium-to-large cities like Hamilton, potentially increasing density potential and boosting housing supply capacity over the medium term.

Additionally, the Build Communities Strong Fund will provide $51 billion over 10 years starting in 2026-27, plus $3 billion annually ongoing, for public infrastructure including housing. The Direct Delivery stream of CHIF provides up to $1 billion over eight years for projects that must be substantially completed by September 2031. These federal investments aim to remove infrastructure bottlenecks that constrain housing supply, indirectly supporting development and potentially improving affordability metrics. However, the specific allocation of these funds to Hamilton or Millgrove depends on future project selection and municipal implementation, meaning the local impact remains conditional on administrative decisions rather than guaranteed outcomes. Sources:
[Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html)
[Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html)

## Municipal Context Reflects Broader Golden Horseshoe Shortfalls

The City of Hamilton's housing market dynamics are part of a broader regional pattern. A new report from the University of Ottawa found that Toronto is falling well short of its housing targets along with 22 of the 34 other municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe. This widespread shortfall highlights the systemic nature of the housing supply challenge in the region, suggesting that Hamilton's current inventory levels and price adjustments are not isolated incidents but part of a larger structural imbalance. The population of Hamilton surpassed 575,000 in 2025, driven by relatively lower home prices compared to the GTA and ongoing downtown revitalization, which continues to attract new residents despite market softening.

For Millgrove, this regional context implies that local housing availability is influenced by factors beyond immediate neighborhood boundaries. The combination of population growth and supply shortfalls across the Golden Horseshoe means that even in a balanced market, competition for well-priced properties may persist. Residents and buyers should monitor municipal planning updates and infrastructure announcements, as these will determine the pace of new housing delivery in the coming years. Sources:
[Hamilton-Burlington Real Estate Market Update September 2025](https://www.stjeanrealty.com/hamilton-burlington-real-estate-market-update-september-2025/)
[The Unique Dynamics of the Hamilton, Ontario Housing Market](https://clarioproperties.ca/the-unique-dynamics-of-the-hamilton-ontario-housing-market/)

## The strongest counter-case

While the sales-to-new-listings ratio suggests balance, the Wahi report characterizes the City of Hamilton as a buyer's market with 6 months of inventory for all property types in August 2026. Additionally, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% on September 2, 2026, but rising five-year Government of Canada bond yields near 3.65% are exerting upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates, which could further dampen demand if it leads to higher borrowing costs for renewals. Sources:
[City of Hamilton Housing Market Report: 20th Sep, 2026 | Wahi](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/hamilton/city-of-hamilton)
[Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates)

## Living here

Millgrove contains one mapped school point, Millgrove Public School, one park point, and one recreation point. These amenities are recorded as map presence only and do not establish catchment, quality, access, household composition, or buyer demand.

Sources:
[Millgrove Public School](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/708096113)

## The early signal

The Sales to New Listings Ratio in the Hamilton Region, which moved to 45% in September 2026. How it reaches the market: This ratio measures the balance between demand (sales) and supply (new listings). A shift outside the 40-60% band typically precedes changes in days on market and price adjustments, as it reflects the immediate tension between buyer interest and seller availability. Typical lead time: Typically leads price and days-on-market changes by one to two reporting periods. Sources:
[Hamilton Housing Market Report: Sep. 9th, 2026 Update | Interactive Map - WOWA.ca](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market)

## Next 3 months, Through December 2026

Prices: flat. 0% to -2% for all property types in the City of Hamilton; this scenario is not a measured Millgrove result. Why: The 45% sales-to-new-listings ratio indicates balance, while the 3.9% year-over-year drop in the MLS HPI suggests downward momentum is slowing. Stable policy rates at 2.25% support demand, but rising bond yields may cap price gains. Buyers: either way. Balanced conditions allow for negotiation, but waiting may not yield significant price drops given the supply contraction. Sellers: list now. Listing now captures the current balanced demand before potential winter slowdowns affect visibility. Watch: A drop in the sales-to-new-listings ratio below 40% would signal a shift to a buyer's market, potentially accelerating price declines. Confidence: moderate. Sources:
[Hamilton Housing Market Report: Sep. 9th, 2026 Update | Interactive Map - WOWA.ca](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market)
[Hamilton & Burlington Housing Market Statistics | MLS® Data](https://www.viewhomes.ca/blog/hamilton-housing-market-statistics/)

## Next 6 months, Through March 2027

Prices: falling. -2% to -4% for all property types in the City of Hamilton; this scenario is not a measured Millgrove result. Why: The upcoming renewal wave for pandemic-era mortgages, affecting 12% of outstanding loans with a 15% payment increase, may reduce buyer purchasing power. This could lead to increased inventory and further price softening. Buyers: wait. Waiting may offer better negotiating leverage as renewed mortgage stress forces some sellers to adjust prices. Sellers: wait. Sellers may need to wait for spring 2027 when demand typically recovers, unless they require a quick sale. Watch: A significant increase in active listings beyond seasonal norms would confirm the shift to a buyer's market. Confidence: low. Sources:
[Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/)
[City of Hamilton Housing Market Report: 20th Sep, 2026 | Wahi](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/hamilton/city-of-hamilton)

## Next 12 months, Through September 2027

Prices: rising. +1% to +3% for all property types in the City of Hamilton; this scenario is not a measured Millgrove result. Why: Long-term supply constraints and federal infrastructure funding aimed at enabling housing construction may stabilize and eventually lift prices. Population growth in Hamilton supports sustained demand. Buyers: buy now. Acting now avoids potential price increases driven by long-term supply shortages and infrastructure improvements. Sellers: either way. Sellers can benefit from improved market conditions in late 2027, but acting earlier secures current value. Watch: A failure to deliver new housing units due to infrastructure delays would keep prices flat or falling. Confidence: low. Sources:
[Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html)
[The Unique Dynamics of the Hamilton, Ontario Housing Market](https://clarioproperties.ca/the-unique-dynamics-of-the-hamilton-ontario-housing-market/)

Assumptions: The Bank of Canada maintains its policy rate at 2.25% through the first half of 2027; Federal infrastructure funds are allocated to Hamilton projects that enable housing construction; Population growth in Hamilton continues at the 2025 pace. What would reverse this: If the trade war worsens economic conditions, leading to job losses and reduced consumer confidence, demand could collapse faster than supply adjusts, resulting in a sharper price decline than projected. Sources:
[CREA | REALTOR® Recommendations](https://www.crea.ca/advocacy/realtor-recommendations/)

## Sources

- [Hamilton Housing Market Report: Sep. 9th, 2026 Update | Interactive Map - WOWA.ca](https://wowa.ca/hamilton-housing-market): Source reference date 9 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Hamilton, ON.
- [City of Hamilton Housing Market Report: 20th Sep, 2026 | Wahi](https://wahi.com/ca/en/housing-market/on/hamilton/city-of-hamilton): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Hamilton, ON.
- [Hamilton & Burlington Housing Market Statistics | MLS® Data](https://www.viewhomes.ca/blog/hamilton-housing-market-statistics/): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Hamilton, ON.
- [Ontario Real Estate Association | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/orea/): Source reference date 18 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: provincial, ON; Province, ON.
- [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA.
- [Hamilton-Burlington Real Estate Market Update September 2025](https://www.stjeanrealty.com/hamilton-burlington-real-estate-market-update-september-2025/): Observation reference period: 30 September 2025. Scope: city, Hamilton, ON.
- [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA.
- [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html): Source metadata date 18 September 2026; not a publication or event date. Scope: National, CA.
- [Funding programs - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/prog/index-eng.html): Source metadata date 18 September 2026; not a publication or event date. Scope: National, CA.
- [The Unique Dynamics of the Hamilton, Ontario Housing Market](https://clarioproperties.ca/the-unique-dynamics-of-the-hamilton-ontario-housing-market/): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Hamilton, ON.
- [Millgrove Public School](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/708096113): date unavailable. Scope: neighbourhood.
- [CREA | REALTOR® Recommendations](https://www.crea.ca/advocacy/realtor-recommendations/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA.

Prepared by Aurynge with AI-assisted research and writing. See /methodology for the evidence and publication policy.