# Ottawa's August 2026 Sales-to-New-Listings Gap: Apartments Lag Citywide Absorption by 4.3 Points

Ottawa's August 2026 sales-to-new-listings ratio dropped to 47.3% citywide, with apartments lagging at 43.0%. The 4.3-point gap between segments reveals where buyer leverage is forming before headline prices move.

Published 2026-09-22. Evidence snapshot 2026-09-22.

## Market summary

Ottawa's August 2026 sales-to-new-listings ratio dropped to 47.3% citywide, with apartments lagging at 43.0%. The 4.3-point gap between segments reveals where buyer leverage is forming before headline prices move.

## Central finding

Ottawa's August 2026 sales-to-new-listings ratio fell to 47.3% citywide while apartments recorded 43.0%, a 4.3-point gap that signals weaker absorption in the condo segment even as composite benchmark prices held near flat. This divergence matters because it identifies where buyer leverage is emerging before it shows up in headline price indices. Sources:
[Ottawa Home Sales Pull Back Sharply in August While Prices Hold Steady – Ottawa Real Estate Board](https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/ottawa-home-sales-pull-back-sharply-in-august-while-prices-hold-steady/)
[What's Happening in the Ottawa Real Estate Market? | Pilon Group](https://www.pilongroup.com/ottawa-real-estate-market-update/)

## How the numbers connect

The apartment segment absorbed fewer sales relative to its new listings than the broader Ottawa market in August 2026. Calculation: Citywide STL ratio: 47.3% (August 2026). Apartment STL ratio: 43.0% (August 2026). Spread: 47.3% - 43.0% = 4.3 percentage points. Definitions: Sales to New Listings Ratio is the percentage of new listings that sold in a given month. The citywide figure uses all residential property types in Ottawa for August 2026. The apartment figure uses only apartment-style properties in Ottawa for the same period. Limit: This spread compares two different property segments within the same city and month. It does not establish a causal relationship between segment performance, nor does it measure a change over time because no prior-month or prior-year STL ratio for either segment is supplied in compatible form. Sources:
[Ottawa Home Sales Pull Back Sharply in August While Prices Hold Steady – Ottawa Real Estate Board](https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/ottawa-home-sales-pull-back-sharply-in-august-while-prices-hold-steady/)
[What's Happening in the Ottawa Real Estate Market? | Pilon Group](https://www.pilongroup.com/ottawa-real-estate-market-update/)

## Apartment Absorption Lags Citywide Market by 4.3 Points in August 2026

Ottawa's citywide sales-to-new-listings ratio fell from 52.4% in July to 47.3% in August 2026, while months of inventory rose from 3.5 to 4.5. Within that broader softening, the apartment segment recorded a 43.0% sales-to-new-listings ratio and 6.3 months of inventory, a 4.3-percentage-point gap below the citywide absorption rate. The median time on market for apartments reached 42 days, compared with shorter periods in other segments. This divergence indicates that the condo market is absorbing supply more slowly than the freehold market, even though both operate within the same citywide financing and demographic environment.

The composite MLS Home Price Index benchmark held at $637,700 in August 2026, up 1.0% year over year and 0.6% from July. Single-family home benchmarks remained up 0.7% year over year at $725,000, while townhouse benchmarks fell 4.0% year over year to $542,500 with active listings 27.1% above last year. The price index masks the segment-level imbalance: the flat composite reading reflects the resilience of single-family values offsetting the steeper adjustment in townhouses and apartments. For agents, the practical implication is that pricing strategy must be calibrated to property type rather than applied uniformly across the city. Sources:
[Ottawa Home Sales Pull Back Sharply in August While Prices Hold Steady – Ottawa Real Estate Board](https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/ottawa-home-sales-pull-back-sharply-in-august-while-prices-hold-steady/)
[What's Happening in the Ottawa Real Estate Market? | Pilon Group](https://www.pilongroup.com/ottawa-real-estate-market-update/)
[Ottawa Real Estate Board | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/otta/)

## Stable Policy Rate Supports Freehold Demand While Renewal Wave Pressures Affordability

The Bank of Canada policy interest rate has held near 2.25% through mid-2026, keeping fixed mortgage rates comparatively stable after the rapid increases of 2022 and 2023. This stability supports borrowing capacity for buyers entering the market, particularly in the freehold segment where the 0.7% year-over-year benchmark increase suggests demand remains adequate to absorb available supply. However, the financing environment is not uniform across all borrowers. Over the next year, the last of the five-year fixed-rate mortgages taken out during the pandemic will come up for renewal, representing approximately 12% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages, with an average 15% increase in monthly payments expected. This renewal wave is a national measurement and does not establish a specific Ottawa borrower impact, but it reduces household disposable income and borrowing capacity for affected households, which can dampen investor and upgrade-buyer activity in the condo segment where those buyer groups are more concentrated.

BMO Capital Markets warned in September 2026 that mortgage rate relief is ending, citing Government of Canada bond yields surging to 3.65% and expectations of five potential rate hikes due to rising inflation and credit demand. Long-term bond yields have risen globally, including in Canada, causing fixed mortgage rates to increase. This forward-looking assessment is a forecast, not an observed outcome, and its transmission to Ottawa-specific transaction volumes cannot be confirmed from the supplied evidence. The key distinction for local decision-making is that the current stable policy rate supports existing demand, while the anticipated tightening of long-term rates and the renewal payment shock create asymmetric risk: freehold buyers with stable incomes face manageable conditions, while investors and cash-strapped buyers face reduced purchasing power that disproportionately affects the condo and townhouse segments where entry prices are lower and investor participation is higher. Sources:
[Cost Of Living In Ottawa 2026: Housing, Rent & Expenses](https://ottawarealtyman.com/cost-of-living-in-ottawa/)
[Better Dwelling - Canada’s Fastest Growing Real Estate News Source](https://betterdwelling.com/)
[Ottawa Interest Rate Changes | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/otta-interest-rate-changes)
[Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/)

## Rental-Heavy Construction Pipeline Adds Future Apartment Supply Pressure

In April 2026, housing starts in Ottawa were lower year over year across all dwelling types, but the composition shifted toward rental product. Rental projects accounted for 61% of starts by market type, while apartments made up most new starts and the large majority of units currently under construction. This composition matters because the units entering the market over the coming years will be predominantly rental apartments, which will compete directly with resale condos for tenant and investor attention. The Ottawa Real Estate Board noted in its June 2026 update that the interaction between resale demand, rental demand, investor activity, and new apartment completions will determine how the market adjusts, framing the issue as one of timing rather than certainty.

Combined with national demographic data pointing to slower population growth and fewer non-permanent residents, the large apartment construction pipeline in Ottawa could lead to a significant influx of apartment-style units that impacts market conditions. This is framed as a possibility rather than a certainty, and the timing of completions relative to demand is uncertain. The Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund requires communities with populations over 30,000 to implement zoning changes allowing four units as-of-right to qualify for funding, and municipalities over 300,000 must freeze development charges for three years. These national policy conditions create a structural supply-side tailwind that will add to future inventory in Ottawa, but they do not establish a specific timeline or volume of additional units. For agents advising clients, the practical takeaway is that the condo segment faces a dual pressure: existing resale inventory at 6.3 months of inventory plus a growing pipeline of new rental completions that will expand the effective supply base over the next several years. Sources:
[Ottawa Real Estate Board Market Update for June 2026 - Ottawa Real Estate - Ottawa Urban Realty](https://ottawaurbanrealty.com/ottawa-re-stats-june-2026/)
[Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html)
[Ottawa Home Prices Trends 2026 | Jason Polonski](https://ottawarealtyman.com/ottawa-home-prices/)

## The strongest counter-case

The MLS HPI composite benchmark price rose 1.0% year over year to $637,700 in August 2026, and single-family home benchmarks remained up 0.7% year over year at $725,000. These figures suggest that underlying price momentum has not reversed across the full market, and that the softening in absorption may be concentrated in specific segments rather than reflecting broad-based demand collapse. Additionally, the Bank of Canada policy rate holding near 2.25% through mid-2026 supports stable borrowing costs, which could sustain demand in the freehold segment even as condos adjust. Sources:
[Ottawa Home Sales Pull Back Sharply in August While Prices Hold Steady – Ottawa Real Estate Board](https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/ottawa-home-sales-pull-back-sharply-in-august-while-prices-hold-steady/)
[Ottawa Real Estate Board | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/otta/)
[Cost Of Living In Ottawa 2026: Housing, Rent & Expenses](https://ottawarealtyman.com/cost-of-living-in-ottawa/)

## Living here

Ottawa maps 10,101 amenity points across seven categories: 393 schools, 1,197 parks, 22 dog parks, 6,051 transit stops, 295 childcare centres, 134 grocery stores, and 2,009 recreation facilities. Named examples include Acres Park, Agincourt Park, Ainsley Park, Alexander Park, Fairmont Dog Park, Stanley Park Dog Park, Cedars & Co. Food Market, FreshCo, Metro, Acorn Early Learning Centre, Alta Vista Co-operative Nursery School, Annavale Headstart Nursery School, Acres Park Ice Rink, Agincourt Park Ice Rink, and Alexander Community Centre.

Schools: Report-card reviews for mapped Ottawa schools show mixed patterns. Corpus Christi School and Holy Cross School exhibit strong comparative performance with improvement over historical baselines. Cairine Wilson Secondary School shows a noticeable decline relative to historical performance. Churchill Alternative School maintains a moderate comparative position with stable performance. Lady Evelyn Alternative School sits in a middle comparative tier without historical context. Our Lady Of Victory School experienced a significant drop from a strong historical position to a developing current level. St. Elizabeth School shows clear improvement from a previously lower position. These qualitative assessments do not confirm instructional quality or safety. The Fraser Institute cautions that the choice of a school should not be made solely on the basis of any one source of information. Recreation: Recreation facilities mapped inside Ottawa include Acres Park Ice Rink, Agincourt Park Ice Rink, and Alexander Community Centre. The city-wide recreation category count is 2,009 points. Sources:
[Adrienne Clarkson Elementary School](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/223320674)

## The early signal

Months of inventory rising from 3.5 in July 2026 to 4.5 in August 2026, measured citywide in Ottawa. How it reaches the market: Rising months of inventory means more homes are competing for the same pool of buyers, which extends days on market and forces sellers to reduce asking prices. When inventory crosses above four months, the sales-to-new-listings ratio falls below 50%, shifting negotiating power to buyers and creating downward pressure on closing prices within one to two reporting cycles. Typical lead time: Months of inventory typically leads price changes by one to two months in balanced markets; the July-to-August rise from 3.5 to 4.5 months preceded the August STL ratio decline. Sources:
[Ottawa Home Sales Pull Back Sharply in August While Prices Hold Steady – Ottawa Real Estate Board](https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/ottawa-home-sales-pull-back-sharply-in-august-while-prices-hold-steady/)

## Next 3 months, through December 2026

Prices: flat. Flat to slightly declining (-0.5% to 0%) for the composite benchmark in Ottawa. The apartment segment may see modest additional softening while single-family homes hold near current levels. Why: The July-to-August 2026 rise in months of inventory from 3.5 to 4.5 and the STL ratio decline to 47.3% indicate that supply is outpacing absorption. The stable policy rate near 2.25% prevents a sharp demand collapse but does not offset the inventory build. Single-family benchmarks remain resilient at +0.7% YoY, suggesting the flat reading is driven by condo weakness rather than broad-based price decline. Buyers: buy now. Buyers gain negotiating leverage as inventory exceeds four months and the STL ratio falls below 50%. Acting now allows selection from a larger pool of active listings and room to negotiate below asking price, particularly in the apartment segment where the 43.0% STL ratio signals the weakest absorption. Sellers: wait. Sellers who list in this window face a market with 4.5 months of inventory and a sub-50% STL ratio, meaning longer days on market and greater likelihood of price reductions. Waiting until spring 2027, when seasonal demand typically lifts absorption, offers better pricing conditions. Watch: A citywide sales-to-new-listings ratio rising back above 52% in September or October 2026 would indicate that the inventory build is being absorbed faster than expected, reducing buyer leverage and supporting firmer prices. Confidence: moderate. Sources:
[Ottawa Home Sales Pull Back Sharply in August While Prices Hold Steady – Ottawa Real Estate Board](https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/ottawa-home-sales-pull-back-sharply-in-august-while-prices-hold-steady/)
[What's Happening in the Ottawa Real Estate Market? | Pilon Group](https://www.pilongroup.com/ottawa-real-estate-market-update/)
[Cost Of Living In Ottawa 2026: Housing, Rent & Expenses](https://ottawarealtyman.com/cost-of-living-in-ottawa/)

## Next 6 months, through March 2027

Prices: falling. Declining (-1.0% to -2.0%) for the composite benchmark in Ottawa, driven primarily by continued apartment price adjustment. Single-family homes may remain flat to slightly positive. Why: The apartment segment's 6.3 months of inventory and 43.0% STL ratio in August 2026, combined with the June 2026 observation of 5.3 months of inventory and a 6.0% year-over-year benchmark decline, point to continued adjustment in the condo market. The stable policy rate supports freehold demand, but the growing apartment supply pipeline will keep pressure on condo prices. The 15% average payment increase for pandemic-era mortgage renewals affecting roughly 12% of outstanding Canadian mortgages over the next year adds affordability headwinds that could dampen investor and first-time buyer activity in the condo segment specifically. Buyers: buy now. The six-month window captures the peak of the apartment inventory build. Buyers targeting condos can expect the widest selection and most competitive pricing during this period. Freehold buyers also benefit from elevated overall inventory, though the advantage is less pronounced than in the condo segment. Sellers: wait. Condo sellers face the most challenging conditions in this window, with inventory well above balanced levels and benchmark prices already down 6.0% year over year. Freehold sellers have somewhat better conditions but still face a market with elevated inventory. Delaying into the spring selling season improves the odds of achieving target prices. Watch: A sustained citywide STL ratio above 50% for three consecutive months through early 2027 would signal that demand is keeping pace with supply, narrowing the expected price decline range toward the upper bound of zero percent. Confidence: moderate. Sources:
[Ottawa Home Sales Pull Back Sharply in August While Prices Hold Steady – Ottawa Real Estate Board](https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/ottawa-home-sales-pull-back-sharply-in-august-while-prices-hold-steady/)
[What's Happening in the Ottawa Real Estate Market? | Pilon Group](https://www.pilongroup.com/ottawa-real-estate-market-update/)
[Ottawa Real Estate Board Market Update for June 2026 - Ottawa Real Estate - Ottawa Urban Realty](https://ottawaurbanrealty.com/ottawa-re-stats-june-2026/)
[Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/)

## Next 12 months, through September 2027

Prices: flat. Flat to slightly declining (-1.0% to +0.5%) for the composite benchmark in Ottawa. The range widens due to uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of apartment completions and the persistence of the policy rate environment. Why: Over twelve months, the interaction between the apartment completion pipeline, slower national population growth, and the pandemic-era mortgage renewal wave determines whether the current softening stabilizes or deepens. The CHIF funding conditions requiring four-unit-as-of-right zoning and development charge freezes for large municipalities create a structural supply-side tailwind that will add to future inventory. If the policy rate holds near 2.25%, freehold demand remains supported, but the condo segment faces compounding pressure from new completions entering a market already at 6.3 months of inventory. The 15% renewal payment increase affects approximately 12% of outstanding mortgages nationally, reducing household disposable income and potentially slowing investor purchases of rental condos. Buyers: either way. By late 2027, the initial wave of apartment completions will have entered the market, and the mortgage renewal headwind will have largely passed. Buyers who wait may find stabilized condo prices but face a thinner selection if the inventory build has been absorbed. Those who act earlier capture the current wider selection at the cost of potential further price declines in the condo segment. Sellers: either way. Sellers with flexible timelines can wait for the spring 2027 market, which historically offers stronger absorption. Sellers under time pressure should price competitively given the elevated inventory environment. Condo sellers face the greatest uncertainty and should consider the trade-off between current selection depth and potential further price adjustment. Watch: A citywide STL ratio consistently below 40% for three or more months, or a composite HPI benchmark dropping below $610,000, would indicate that the market is transitioning from balanced to buyer-favoured conditions, extending the expected price decline beyond the stated range. Confidence: low. Sources:
[Ottawa Home Sales Pull Back Sharply in August While Prices Hold Steady – Ottawa Real Estate Board](https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/ottawa-home-sales-pull-back-sharply-in-august-while-prices-hold-steady/)
[What's Happening in the Ottawa Real Estate Market? | Pilon Group](https://www.pilongroup.com/ottawa-real-estate-market-update/)
[Ottawa Real Estate Board Market Update for June 2026 - Ottawa Real Estate - Ottawa Urban Realty](https://ottawaurbanrealty.com/ottawa-re-stats-june-2026/)
[Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/)

Assumptions: The Bank of Canada policy rate remains near 2.25% through the outlook horizon, keeping fixed mortgage rates comparatively stable; No major federal or provincial policy change alters development charge rules or zoning requirements for Ottawa during the outlook period; Apartment completions continue to enter the resale market at the pace implied by the current construction pipeline. What would reverse this: A measurable increase in the citywide sales-to-new-listings ratio above 55% sustained for two consecutive months would indicate that demand has reaccelerated faster than supply, reversing the buyer-leverage shift. Alternatively, a further decline in the apartment STL ratio below 35% combined with a drop in the composite HPI benchmark below $620,000 would confirm that the softening is deepening rather than stabilizing. Sources:
[Ottawa Home Sales Pull Back Sharply in August While Prices Hold Steady – Ottawa Real Estate Board](https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/ottawa-home-sales-pull-back-sharply-in-august-while-prices-hold-steady/)
[What's Happening in the Ottawa Real Estate Market? | Pilon Group](https://www.pilongroup.com/ottawa-real-estate-market-update/)
[Ottawa Real Estate Board Market Update for June 2026 - Ottawa Real Estate - Ottawa Urban Realty](https://ottawaurbanrealty.com/ottawa-re-stats-june-2026/)
[Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/)
[Cost Of Living In Ottawa 2026: Housing, Rent & Expenses](https://ottawarealtyman.com/cost-of-living-in-ottawa/)

## Sources

- [Ottawa Home Sales Pull Back Sharply in August While Prices Hold Steady – Ottawa Real Estate Board](https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/ottawa-home-sales-pull-back-sharply-in-august-while-prices-hold-steady/): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Ottawa, ON.
- [What's Happening in the Ottawa Real Estate Market? | Pilon Group](https://www.pilongroup.com/ottawa-real-estate-market-update/): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Ottawa, ON.
- [Ottawa Real Estate Board | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/otta/): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Ottawa, ON.
- [Cost Of Living In Ottawa 2026: Housing, Rent & Expenses](https://ottawarealtyman.com/cost-of-living-in-ottawa/): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Ottawa, ON; National, CA.
- [Better Dwelling - Canada’s Fastest Growing Real Estate News Source](https://betterdwelling.com/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA.
- [Ottawa Interest Rate Changes | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/otta-interest-rate-changes): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: City, Ottawa, ON.
- [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA.
- [Ottawa Real Estate Board Market Update for June 2026 - Ottawa Real Estate - Ottawa Urban Realty](https://ottawaurbanrealty.com/ottawa-re-stats-june-2026/): First captured 18 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: City, Ottawa, ON.
- [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html): First captured 18 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA.
- [Ottawa Home Prices Trends 2026 | Jason Polonski](https://ottawarealtyman.com/ottawa-home-prices/): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Ottawa, ON; National, CA.
- [Adrienne Clarkson Elementary School](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/223320674): date unavailable. Scope: city.

Prepared by Aurynge with AI-assisted research and writing. See /methodology for the evidence and publication policy.