# Fairfield: Victoria's condo inventory shift signals a balanced market Victoria's condominium months of inventory rose to 5.7 in Q2 2026 from 3.8 a year earlier, marking the sharpest segmental shift toward balance in the city. This broader market condition is not measured at the Fairfield neighbourhood level. Published 2026-10-11. Evidence snapshot 2026-10-12. ## Key facts and reporting periods - Sales Volume: 137 units. Property type: Condominium. Scope: Victoria, BC. Reporting date: 2026-10-11. [Source](https://www.vreb.org/current-statistics) - Sales Volume: 239 count. Property type: SingleFamily. Scope: Victoria, BC. Reporting date: 2026-10-11. [Source](https://www.vreb.org/current-statistics) - Sales Volume: 137 units. Property type: Condominium. Scope: Victoria, BC. Reporting date: 2026-10-11. [Source](https://www.vreb.org/mls-statistics) - Sales Volume: 239 count. Property type: SingleFamily. Scope: Victoria, BC. Reporting date: 2026-10-11. [Source](https://www.vreb.org/mls-statistics) - Sales Volume: 137 units. Property type: Condominium. Scope: Victoria, BC. Reporting date: 2026-10-11. [Source](https://www.victoriabcrealestate.com/market-report) - Sales Volume: 239 count. Property type: SingleFamily. Scope: Victoria, BC. Reporting date: 2026-10-11. [Source](https://www.victoriabcrealestate.com/market-report) - Sales Volume: 175 units. Property type: Condominium. Scope: Victoria, BC. Reporting date: 2026-10-11. [Source](https://creastats.crea.ca/board/vict/) - Sales Volume: 309 count. Property type: SingleFamily. Scope: Victoria, BC. Reporting date: 2026-10-11. [Source](https://creastats.crea.ca/board/vict/) ## Market summary Victoria's condominium months of inventory rose to 5.7 in Q2 2026 from 3.8 a year earlier, marking the sharpest segmental shift toward balance in the city. This broader market condition is not measured at the Fairfield neighbourhood level. ## Central finding The most significant recent change in the Victoria housing market is the sharp increase in condominium months of inventory to 5.7 in Q2 2026, up from 3.8 in Q2 2025. This indicates a transition from a seller-favoured to a balanced market for condos in Victoria, which may influence buyer leverage and price stability in the city, though no target-scope data confirms this for Fairfield. Sources: [Victoria Real Estate Board Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/vict-market-conditions) ## How the numbers connect Calculates the absolute increase in condominium months of inventory in Victoria between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026. Calculation: 5.7 months (Q2 2026) - 3.8 months (Q2 2025) = 1.9 months increase. Definitions: Months of inventory is the number of months required to sell current active listings at the current sales rate. The geography is the City of Victoria, BC. The property type is condominiums. Limit: This calculation establishes a change between two specific quarters but does not establish a sustained trend, structural shift, or cause. It does not measure inventory at the Fairfield neighbourhood level. Sources: [Victoria Real Estate Board Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/vict-market-conditions) ## Condominium Inventory Shift Defines Victoria's Market Balance The Victoria Real Estate Board reported that months of inventory for condominium units numbered 5.7 at the end of the second quarter of 2026, up from 3.8 months recorded at the end of the second quarter of 2025. This 1.9-month increase represents the largest year-over-year change among the three property segments tracked by the board, signaling a distinct shift toward a more buyer-favoured market for condos in Victoria. In contrast, single-family home inventory rose only slightly to 4.2 months from 4.0, while townhouse and row unit inventory decreased marginally to 4.4 months from 4.5. The median number of days on market for sold condominium units in Victoria increased to 30 in Q2 2026 from 28 in Q2 2025, reinforcing the interpretation of slowing sales velocity relative to supply. For buyers in the broader Victoria market, this environment typically allows for greater negotiation leverage and reduced urgency compared to the tighter conditions of the previous year. Sellers of condominiums in the city may need to adjust pricing strategies to remain competitive as the pool of available options expands. The divergence between the condominium segment and other property types suggests that market dynamics are segment-specific rather than uniform across all housing stock in Victoria. Sources: [Victoria Real Estate Board Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/vict-market-conditions) [Victoria Real Estate Board Median Price | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/vict-median-price) ## Mortgage Renewals and Rate Stability Shape Financing Conditions As of September 18, 2026, the lowest available five-year fixed mortgage rate in Canada is 4.24%, while the Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% on September 2, 2026. Rising five-year Government of Canada bond yields near 3.65% are exerting upward pressure on fixed rates, potentially pushing them higher in the coming weeks. Over the next year, the last of the five-year, fixed-rate mortgages taken out during the pandemic will come up for renewal, representing approximately 12% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages, with an average expected monthly payment increase of 15%. These financing conditions are national observations and do not establish whether they have changed transaction outcomes in Fairfield. The transmission of these national financing conditions to local markets depends on borrower behaviour and lender practices, which vary by region. The stability of variable rates due to the unchanged policy rate provides some predictability for borrowers with adjustable mortgages, but the rising bond yields suggest that fixed-rate costs may continue to climb. Buyers and sellers in Fairfield should monitor local absorption rates and listing trends to assess how these broader financing forces are manifesting in their immediate market. Sources: [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) ## Federal Infrastructure Funding Supports Long-Term Housing Supply The Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund allocates $6 billion over 10 years to support housing-enabling infrastructure, with communities over 30,000 people required to implement zoning changes allowing four units as-of-right to qualify. Under the Direct Delivery stream, projects must be substantially completed by September 2031, while those under the Provincial and Territorial Agreement stream have a completion deadline of September 2033. These federal initiatives aim to remove infrastructure bottlenecks that constrain housing supply, indirectly supporting development activity across eligible communities. The funding is allocated at the national level and does not specify particular projects or timelines for the City of Victoria or the Fairfield neighbourhood. The requirement for zoning changes to allow four units as-of-right could influence future housing density and composition in municipalities that qualify for CHIF funding. However, the retained evidence does not confirm whether the City of Victoria has implemented these specific zoning changes or received direct allocations for projects affecting Fairfield. The long-term completion deadlines suggest that any tangible impacts on local housing supply from this fund will materialize over several years rather than in the immediate term. Residents and agents in Fairfield should track municipal planning decisions and project announcements to determine if and how these federal funds translate into local development activity. Sources: [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html) ## The strongest counter-case While condominium inventory rose sharply, single-family home inventory in Victoria increased only slightly to 4.2 months from 4.0, and townhouse inventory decreased slightly to 4.4 months from 4.5. This suggests the shift toward balance is concentrated in the condominium segment rather than being a uniform city-wide phenomenon. Additionally, August 2026 sales volume in Victoria showed a 12.6% year-over-year increase, indicating that demand has not collapsed despite the inventory build. Sources: [Victoria Real Estate Board Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/vict-market-conditions) [Victoria Real Estate Board | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/vict) ## Living here Mapped inside Fairfield are 10 parks including Chapman Park, Olive Street Green, Fairfield Green, Moss Rock Park, Robert J. Porter Park, Brooke Street Park, Bushby Park, Upper Memorial Green, Lower Memorial Green, and Clover Point Park; 48 transit stops including May at Moss, May at Wellington, Fairfield at Richmond, Foul Bay at Fairfield, May at Linden, Fairfield at Cornwall, Fairfield at Moss, Fairfield at Robertson, May at Joseph, May at Olive, Cook at Fairfield, Fairfield at Blanchard, Fairfield at Cook, Fairfield at Kipling, Fairfield at Su'it, Fairfield at Vancouver, May at Eberts, Fairfield at Quadra, Fairfield at Lillian, Fairfield at Memorial, Memorial at Fairfield, Memorial at May, Fairfield at Arnold, Fairfield at St Charles, and Fairfield at Stannard; 1 school, Sir James Douglas Elementary; and 1 recreation facility, Fairfield Community Place. Schools: Sir James Douglas Elementary shows mixed comparative performance with a mid-range standing and a slight decline from the previous cycle. This comparative signal does not confirm instructional quality or fit, so check current school information and district communications for accuracy. The Fraser Institute cautions that the choice of a school should not be made solely on the basis of any one source of information. Sources: [Sir James Douglas Elementary](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/25657010) ## The early signal Condominium months of inventory in Victoria, which rose to 5.7 in Q2 2026 from 3.8 in Q2 2025. How it reaches the market: An increase in months of inventory indicates a slower sales velocity relative to supply, which typically exerts downward pressure on prices and signals a shift toward a more balanced or buyer-favoured market. This measure moves before headline price indices because it reflects real-time listing and sales activity rather than lagging price adjustments. Typical lead time: Months of inventory typically leads price changes by one to two quarters, as sellers adjust pricing in response to changing absorption rates before median prices reflect the new equilibrium. Sources: [Victoria Real Estate Board Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/vict-market-conditions) ## Next 3 months, through December 2026 Prices: flat. Victoria condominium prices are expected to remain flat, with a range of -2% to +2%. This scenario is not a measured Fairfield result. Why: The rise in Victoria condominium months of inventory to 5.7 in Q2 2026 suggests a balanced market where neither buyers nor sellers hold dominant leverage. The stable policy rate at 2.25% supports predictable borrowing costs, but rising bond yields may pressure fixed rates. Without target-scope data, Fairfield is assumed to track the broader Victoria condominium trend. Buyers: either way. Buyers can negotiate with moderate confidence given the balanced inventory levels, but waiting may not yield significant price drops if demand remains steady. Sellers: either way. Sellers should price competitively to ensure timely sales, as the increased inventory means buyers have more options and less urgency. Watch: A further increase in Victoria condominium months of inventory above 6.0 would signal a stronger buyer's market, potentially leading to price declines. Confidence: moderate. Sources: [Victoria Real Estate Board Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/vict-market-conditions) [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) ## Next 6 months, through March 2027 Prices: flat. Victoria condominium prices are expected to remain flat, with a range of -3% to +3%. This scenario is not a measured Fairfield result. Why: The upcoming wave of pandemic-era mortgage renewals, affecting 12% of outstanding mortgages with a 15% average payment increase, may dampen demand as borrowers reassess affordability. However, low delinquency rates suggest many borrowers can absorb the increases. The impact on Victoria's market is uncertain without local data. Buyers: wait. Waiting may allow buyers to benefit from potential price softening as renewed mortgage payments reduce disposable income and borrowing capacity for some households. Sellers: list now. Sellers may find it advantageous to list before the full impact of mortgage renewals hits the market, as demand could weaken in the coming months. Watch: A spike in mortgage delinquency rates or a significant drop in Victoria sales volume would indicate stronger downward pressure on prices. Confidence: low. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [Victoria Real Estate Board Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/vict-market-conditions) ## Next 12 months, through September 2027 Prices: rising. Victoria condominium prices are expected to rise modestly, with a range of 0% to +5%. This scenario is not a measured Fairfield result. Why: Long-term housing supply constraints, with Canada needing 187,000 to 238,000 homes annually to close its supply gap, may support price growth if construction does not accelerate sufficiently. Federal infrastructure funding may also contribute to improved amenities and demand over time. The absence of local data makes this projection highly uncertain. Buyers: buy now. Buying now may lock in current prices before potential long-term appreciation driven by supply constraints and infrastructure improvements. Sellers: wait. Sellers may benefit from holding properties if long-term price appreciation is supported by supply shortages and infrastructure investments. Watch: A significant increase in housing completions in Victoria or a major economic downturn would undermine the basis for price growth. Confidence: low. Sources: [Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals) [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html) Assumptions: Fairfield tracks the broader Victoria condominium market trend in the absence of target-scope data; National financing conditions transmit to local markets through borrower behaviour and lender practices; Federal infrastructure funding will eventually support housing supply, though timing and local impact are uncertain. What would reverse this: If mortgage delinquency rates rise significantly or if there is a sudden surge in new condominium completions in Victoria, the market could shift to a stronger buyer's market, leading to price declines rather than stability or growth. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [Victoria Real Estate Board Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/vict-market-conditions) ## Sources - [Victoria Real Estate Board Market Conditions | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/vict-market-conditions): Observation reference period: 30 June 2026. Scope: city, Victoria, BC; city. - [Victoria Real Estate Board | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/vict): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Victoria, BC. - [Victoria Real Estate Board Median Price | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/mls/vict-median-price): Observation reference period: 30 June 2026. Scope: city, Victoria, BC. - [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html): First captured 18 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Sir James Douglas Elementary](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/25657010): date unavailable. Scope: neighbourhood. - [Housing research, finance and mortgage insurance in Canada | CMHC](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals): First captured 21 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. Prepared by Aurynge with AI-assisted research and writing. See /methodology for the evidence and publication policy.