# Mayfair: Coquitlam's 6.3% Absorption Rate Signals Buyer Leverage Amid Metro Vancouver Price Declines Coquitlam recorded a sales-to-active-listings ratio of 6.3% in September 2026, indicating a buyer's market with 1,279 active listings. These city-level figures are not measured at the Mayfair neighbourhood level but provide context for local transaction dynamics. Published 2026-10-11. Evidence snapshot 2026-10-11. ## Market summary Coquitlam recorded a sales-to-active-listings ratio of 6.3% in September 2026, indicating a buyer's market with 1,279 active listings. These city-level figures are not measured at the Mayfair neighbourhood level but provide context for local transaction dynamics. ## Central finding The Coquitlam market exhibits significant buyer leverage, evidenced by a 6.3% absorption rate and 37 days on market in September 2026. This contrasts with Metro Vancouver's composite benchmark price decline of 5.6% year-over-year, suggesting that while regional prices are falling, Coquitlam's inventory depth is providing specific negotiating power for buyers in the city. Sources: [September 2026 Coquitlam Real Estate Housing Market Report , Buyer's Market | Hani & Les](https://www.bccondosandhomes.com/market-stats/coquitlam) [August 2026 Greater Vancouver Realtors Statistics - Vancouver New Condos](https://www.vancouvernewcondos.com/august-2026-greater-vancouver-realtors-statistics/) ## How the numbers connect Calculates the implied monthly sales volume relative to active inventory to verify the absorption rate. Calculation: Sales (80) / Active Listings (1,279) = 0.0625 or 6.25%, rounded to 6.3% as reported. Definitions: Sales: 80 properties sold in the last 30 days. Active Listings: 1,279 properties currently on the market. Geography: City of Coquitlam. Period: September 2026. Limit: This calculation confirms the internal consistency of the city-level report but does not establish neighbourhood-specific absorption rates for Mayfair. Sources: [September 2026 Coquitlam Real Estate Housing Market Report , Buyer's Market | Hani & Les](https://www.bccondosandhomes.com/market-stats/coquitlam) ## Coquitlam Inventory Depth Creates Buyer Leverage In September 2026, the City of Coquitlam recorded a sales-to-active-listings ratio of 6.3%, based on 80 sales against 1,279 active listings. This low absorption rate, combined with an average of 37 days on market, characterizes the city as a buyer's market where sellers face greater competition. The average sale price in Coquitlam was $981,361, with prices trending down 3.5% compared to the prior 90-day average. These city-level measurements are not direct readings of the Mayfair neighbourhood but indicate the broader market environment in which Mayfair transactions occur. The contrast between Coquitlam's 6.3% absorption rate and the Metro Vancouver regional ratio of 12.3% in August 2026 highlights a localized imbalance. While Metro Vancouver's composite benchmark price fell 5.6% year-over-year to $1,081,900, Coquitlam's higher inventory relative to sales suggests that local buyers have more options and time to negotiate. For residents in Mayfair, this implies that listing a property may require more strategic pricing to compete within the city's elevated inventory levels. Sources: [September 2026 Coquitlam Real Estate Housing Market Report , Buyer's Market | Hani & Les](https://www.bccondosandhomes.com/market-stats/coquitlam) [Greater Vancouver REALTORS® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/vanc/) [August 2026 Greater Vancouver Realtors Statistics - Vancouver New Condos](https://www.vancouvernewcondos.com/august-2026-greater-vancouver-realtors-statistics/) ## Stable Rates and Renewal Pressures Shape Demand The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, 2026, keeping lender prime rates at 4.45% and variable mortgage payments unchanged. As of September 18, 2026, the lowest available five-year fixed mortgage rate in Canada was 4.24%. However, borrowers renewing pandemic-era five-year fixed-rate mortgages can expect an average 15% increase in monthly payments over the next year. This renewal wave affects approximately 12% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages, creating potential pressure on household budgets and demand stability. Greater Vancouver REALTORS® chief economist Andrew Lis attributed the continued softness in the regional market to a slowdown in immigration, reduced investor demand, and mortgage rates that are not low enough to stimulate robust buying activity. While national sales are expected to grind higher through the second half of 2026, supported by pent-up demand, they remain below pre-pandemic norms until late 2027. Sources: [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [August 2026 Greater Vancouver Realtors Statistics - Vancouver New Condos](https://www.vancouvernewcondos.com/august-2026-greater-vancouver-realtors-statistics/) [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate](https://economics.td.com/RealEstate) ## Federal Infrastructure Funding Conditions Supply Growth The Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund (CHIF), established with $6 billion in federal funding over 10 years, requires communities with populations over 30,000 to implement zoning changes allowing four units as-of-right to qualify for funding. This condition aims to accelerate housing supply by removing regulatory barriers to density. Additionally, municipalities with populations over 300,000 must freeze Development Charges for three years at pre-April 2, 2024 rates to access CHIF funds, reducing upfront costs for developers in larger cities. These federal policies create a framework for increased housing delivery across eligible jurisdictions, including those in British Columbia. The Direct Delivery stream provides up to $1 billion over eight years for housing-enabling infrastructure projects, with substantial completion required by September 2031. Sources: [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html) ## Local Zoning Updates and Regional Development Context The City of Coquitlam updated its consolidated Zoning Bylaw 3000, 1996, with changes reflecting amendments as of July 27, 2026. This regulatory framework serves as the primary guide for land use and development within the city, detailing constraints such as density exceptions and floodplain restrictions. In the broader region, the City of Burnaby has highlighted the requirement for Development Permits in specific areas outlined by its Official Community Plan to ensure new projects meet standards for design and environmental protection. While Burnaby is a neighboring municipality, its approach to permitting reflects the regional trend toward stricter oversight of new construction. For Mayfair, the combination of updated city zoning and regional development scrutiny suggests a cautious approach to new supply, maintaining the existing housing stock as the primary source of residential availability. Sources: [Development Projects | City of Burnaby](https://www.burnaby.ca/services-and-payments/permits-and-construction/development-projects) ## The strongest counter-case Metro Vancouver's sales-to-active listings ratio stood at 12.3% in August 2026, which is closer to the balanced market threshold of 15% than Coquitlam's 6.3%. This suggests that while Coquitlam faces deeper buyer leverage, the broader region is experiencing a more moderate adjustment, potentially limiting how far Coquitlam prices can diverge from regional trends. Sources: [Greater Vancouver REALTORS® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/vanc/) ## Living here Mayfair contains two mapped parks, Cape Horn Park and Maquabeak Park, along with seven transit stops including Golden Dr (NB) at Rocket Way and United Blvd (EB) at Burbidge St. Two recreation facilities are also mapped, including Planet Ice. These amenities establish the presence of green space and transit access within the neighbourhood boundaries. Sources: [Cape Horn Park](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/483566464) ## The early signal The sales-to-active listings ratio in Coquitlam, which dropped to 6.3% in September 2026. How it reaches the market: A low absorption rate indicates that inventory is accumulating faster than it is being sold, which typically leads to downward pressure on prices as sellers compete for limited buyer attention. This metric moves before headline price indices reflect the change in market balance. Typical lead time: Absorption rates typically lead price changes by one to two months, as sellers adjust asking prices in response to prolonged days on market. Sources: [September 2026 Coquitlam Real Estate Housing Market Report , Buyer's Market | Hani & Les](https://www.bccondosandhomes.com/market-stats/coquitlam) ## Next 3 months, through December 2026 Prices: flat. Prices in Coquitlam are expected to remain stable, with minor fluctuations possible due to seasonal adjustments. This scenario is not a measured Mayfair result. Why: The current 6.3% absorption rate in Coquitlam suggests a balanced-to-buyer's market, which typically stabilizes prices rather than causing sharp declines. The Bank of Canada's hold at 2.25% supports payment stability for variable-rate borrowers. Buyers: buy now. Buyers benefit from high inventory and low absorption, allowing for negotiation leverage and a wider selection of properties without bidding wars. Sellers: wait. Sellers may find it difficult to achieve desired prices in a buyer's market with 37 days on market average, so waiting for potential seasonal demand shifts could be advantageous. Watch: A rise in the sales-to-active listings ratio above 12% would indicate a shift toward a balanced market, reducing buyer leverage. Confidence: moderate. Sources: [September 2026 Coquitlam Real Estate Housing Market Report , Buyer's Market | Hani & Les](https://www.bccondosandhomes.com/market-stats/coquitlam) [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) ## Next 6 months, through March 2027 Prices: falling. Coquitlam prices may experience a modest decline of 1-2% as the mortgage renewal wave begins to impact household budgets. This scenario is not a measured Mayfair result. Why: The anticipated 15% increase in monthly payments for pandemic-era mortgage renewals could reduce buyer purchasing power, adding downward pressure to an already soft market. National sales are expected to remain below pre-pandemic norms until late 2027. Buyers: buy now. Acting now allows buyers to secure properties before potential further price reductions driven by renewed mortgage stress, though they risk missing out on lower prices if the market continues to soften. Sellers: wait. Sellers should consider waiting until after the peak of the mortgage renewal wave to avoid selling into a market with reduced buyer affordability. Watch: A significant drop in mortgage rates or an increase in immigration-driven demand could reverse the downward price pressure. Confidence: low. Sources: [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate](https://economics.td.com/RealEstate) ## Next 12 months, through September 2027 Prices: rising. Coquitlam prices may stabilize or see slight increases as pent-up demand returns and supply constraints become more apparent. This scenario is not a measured Mayfair result. Why: TD Economics projects that national sales will continue to rise through the second half of 2026, supported by pent-up demand. If this trend holds, the current inventory surplus in Coquitlam may be absorbed, leading to price stabilization or modest growth. Buyers: either way. Buyers can choose to act now for selection or wait for potential price stability, depending on their urgency and financial readiness. Sellers: list now. Sellers who list now can take advantage of the current high inventory to attract buyers, but those who wait may face a tighter market with less negotiating room. Watch: A sustained increase in new listings beyond the current 1,279 active inventory level would prevent price recovery and maintain buyer leverage. Confidence: low. Sources: [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate](https://economics.td.com/RealEstate) [September 2026 Coquitlam Real Estate Housing Market Report , Buyer's Market | Hani & Les](https://www.bccondosandhomes.com/market-stats/coquitlam) Assumptions: The Bank of Canada maintains its policy rate at 2.25% throughout the outlook period; No major changes to provincial or municipal zoning regulations occur that significantly alter housing supply in Coquitlam; Immigration levels remain consistent with recent trends, neither accelerating nor decelerating sharply. What would reverse this: A sudden increase in interest rates or a significant economic downturn could exacerbate the current market softness, leading to sharper price declines in Coquitlam and delaying any expected recovery. Sources: [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) [CREA | REALTOR® Recommendations](https://www.crea.ca/advocacy/realtor-recommendations/) ## Sources - [September 2026 Coquitlam Real Estate Housing Market Report , Buyer's Market | Hani & Les](https://www.bccondosandhomes.com/market-stats/coquitlam): Observation reference period: 20 September 2026. Scope: city, Coquitlam, BC. - [August 2026 Greater Vancouver Realtors Statistics - Vancouver New Condos](https://www.vancouvernewcondos.com/august-2026-greater-vancouver-realtors-statistics/): First captured 17 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: Region, BC. - [Greater Vancouver REALTORS® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/vanc/): First captured 17 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: Region, BC. - [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [https://economics.td.com/RealEstate](https://economics.td.com/RealEstate): First captured 18 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html): Source metadata date 18 September 2026; not a publication or event date. Scope: National, CA. - [Development Projects | City of Burnaby](https://www.burnaby.ca/services-and-payments/permits-and-construction/development-projects): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: Region, BC. - [Cape Horn Park](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/483566464): date unavailable. Scope: neighbourhood. - [CREA | REALTOR® Recommendations](https://www.crea.ca/advocacy/realtor-recommendations/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. Prepared by Aurynge with AI-assisted research and writing. See /methodology for the evidence and publication policy.