{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "kind": "city-market-research-evidence",
  "publication": {
    "id": "city-bc-e8931e75-1422-4985-be66-0f8163c646a6-18a0a35dade6",
    "batch": "edition-2026-09-07",
    "publicPath": "/markets/bc/kamloops-apartment-balance-selling-time",
    "sourceArticleSha256": "18a0a35dade67e16f3a14c3bfedea1475150a2fc344aac24be80c79a9fe51023",
    "publishedAtUtc": "2026-09-08T01:38:04.954934Z",
    "editorialLanguageCheck": "passed"
  },
  "cityId": "e8931e75-1422-4985-be66-0f8163c646a6",
  "city": "Kamloops",
  "province": "BC",
  "asOfUtc": "2026-09-07T16:00:00.1724277+00:00",
  "thesis": "Kamloops and District\u2019s apartment inventory improved relative to sales in the second quarter, but completed transactions took longer. The retained first-quarter report shows the reverse pattern. Taken together, those records suggest that the apparent improvement in market balance needs confirmation from actual selling speed.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "key": "market",
      "url": "https://stats.crea.ca/mls/kaml-market-conditions",
      "publisher": "CREA",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "First and second quarter2026, each compared with the same2025quarter. Retained June2 and September3 captures; current direct HTML confirms secondquarter. Board region, not municipal-only.",
      "dateNote": "First and second quarter2026, each compared with the same2025quarter. Retained June2 and September3 captures; current direct HTML confirms secondquarter. Board region, not municipal-only.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T17:29:35.624821+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "local",
        "regional"
      ],
      "recordIds": [
        "5c14d93a-dcf2-4135-8c9b-b6c410f93d14",
        "75d924e2-0854-48a0-a5cb-923764f62bef"
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "boc",
      "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/",
      "publisher": "Bank of Canada",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "September2,2026; national policy and funding risks.",
      "dateNote": "September2,2026; national policy and funding risks.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T17:29:35.624821+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "national"
      ],
      "recordIds": []
    },
    {
      "key": "bc",
      "url": "https://www.bcrea.bc.ca/economics/housing-market-activity-uneven-across-bc-regions/",
      "publisher": "BCREA",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "August13,2026 release covering provincial July sales.",
      "dateNote": "August13,2026 release covering provincial July sales.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T17:29:35.624821+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "provincial"
      ],
      "recordIds": []
    },
    {
      "key": "cmhc",
      "url": "https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2026/spring-2026-housing-supply-report",
      "publisher": "CMHC",
      "publicationDate": null,
      "observationPeriod": "March11,2026 review of2025construction; national and major-centre context, not Kamloops starts.",
      "dateNote": "March11,2026 review of2025construction; national and major-centre context, not Kamloops starts.",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T17:29:35.624821+00:00",
      "scopes": [
        "national"
      ],
      "recordIds": []
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "opening",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "market"
      ],
      "explanation": "Board geography, same-quarter annual comparisons and sold-only timing definition retained."
    },
    {
      "id": "comparison",
      "kind": "observation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "market"
      ],
      "explanation": "Board geography, same-quarter annual comparisons and sold-only timing definition retained."
    },
    {
      "id": "meaning",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 2,
      "sources": [
        "market"
      ],
      "explanation": "Board geography, same-quarter annual comparisons and sold-only timing definition retained."
    },
    {
      "id": "province",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "bc",
        "market"
      ],
      "explanation": "Board geography, same-quarter annual comparisons and sold-only timing definition retained."
    },
    {
      "id": "rates",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "boc"
      ],
      "explanation": "Board geography, same-quarter annual comparisons and sold-only timing definition retained."
    },
    {
      "id": "construction",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 2,
      "sources": [
        "cmhc",
        "market"
      ],
      "explanation": "Board geography, same-quarter annual comparisons and sold-only timing definition retained."
    },
    {
      "id": "forecast",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "sources": [
        "market",
        "boc"
      ],
      "explanation": "Board geography, same-quarter annual comparisons and sold-only timing definition retained."
    },
    {
      "id": "test",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "sources": [
        "market"
      ],
      "explanation": "Board geography, same-quarter annual comparisons and sold-only timing definition retained."
    }
  ],
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "claimId": "forecast",
      "horizon": "Third and fourthquarter2026; inspect the next two published quarterlyreports.",
      "assumptions": [
        "No major financing or sold-property-mix shift",
        "Current definitions remain comparable"
      ],
      "upside": "Apartments sell at least as quickly as townhouses.",
      "downside": "Apartment sold times remain longer and higher inventory persists.",
      "changeSignals": [
        "Apartment and townhouse median sold days forQ3andQ4",
        "Price-band and withdrawal evidence"
      ],
      "confidence": "low",
      "confidenceReason": "Two observed quarters with no calibrated model or matched-property controls."
    }
  ],
  "causalChains": [
    {
      "claimId": "rates",
      "sources": [
        "market",
        "boc",
        "bc"
      ],
      "mechanism": "Provincial sales weakness and uncertain fixed financing can restrain buyers even when local inventory ratios improve; local sale-time evidence tests whether that improvement reaches transactions.",
      "localExposure": "Apartment buyers and sellers in the Kamloops board area.",
      "timeHorizon": "Remaining2026quarters",
      "counterEvidence": "More favourable mortgage offers or faster apartment turnover acrosspricebands would challenge the outlook.",
      "forecastImplication": "Require selling-speed confirmation before treating lower inventory as a broad seller recovery."
    }
  ],
  "datasetFindings": [
    {
      "reportFile": "analysis.json",
      "reportSha256": "2ccff7a49418df3e5889968a7056612e2deb69f0adeffb338893f1efbbc80b4a",
      "claimIds": [
        "opening",
        "comparison",
        "meaning"
      ],
      "archiveContribution": "The preserved firstquarter page, which the live publisher has replaced, establishes the earlier opposite pattern. Eight source-bound inputs and four reproduced annual differences prevent a latest-only or seasonally naive comparison."
    }
  ],
  "review": {
    "factual": true,
    "editorial": true,
    "reviewer": "Codex root, retained quarterly comparison and direct primary-source review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T17:29:35.624821+00:00",
    "articleSha256": "18a0a35dade67e16f3a14c3bfedea1475150a2fc344aac24be80c79a9fe51023"
  },
  "insightReview": {
    "articleSha256": "18a0a35dade67e16f3a14c3bfedea1475150a2fc344aac24be80c79a9fe51023",
    "reviewer": "Codex root, retained quarterly comparison and direct primary-source review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T17:29:35.624821+00:00",
    "findings": [
      {
        "observationIds": [
          "q1-moi-old",
          "q1-moi-new",
          "q2-moi-old",
          "q2-moi-new",
          "q1-days-old",
          "q1-days-new",
          "q2-days-old",
          "q2-days-new"
        ],
        "ordinaryInterpretation": "The fall in apartment months of inventory signals an uncomplicated recovery in sellers\u2019 ability to find buyers.",
        "additionalFinding": "Across retained quarterly releases, annual inventory and sale-time comparisons reverse in opposite directions. Firstquarter inventory worsened while sold apartments moved faster; secondquarter inventory improved while sold apartments took longer. The apparently improved balance is not confirmed by transaction speed.",
        "archiveContribution": "The preserved firstquarter page, which the live publisher has replaced, establishes the earlier opposite pattern. Eight source-bound inputs and four reproduced annual differences prevent a latest-only or seasonally naive comparison.",
        "localConsequence": "Apartment sellers should not treat six months of inventory as proof that acceptable offers now arrive faster; buyers retain evidence for patient negotiation.",
        "counterEvidence": "Both measures can be affected by the mix of units sold and listed; later transactions could show a genuine broad recovery.",
        "missingLinks": [
          "Matched property-level listings and repricing histories",
          "Withdrawn and expired listings",
          "Apartment tenure and price-band composition"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "removedOrDemoted": [
      {
        "claim": "Lowerinventory proves apartments sell faster",
        "reason": "Opposite sold-time observation."
      },
      {
        "claim": "Kamloops lost21,500full-timejobs frompeak",
        "reason": "Underlying employmentgeography andseries require independentreconciliation."
      },
      {
        "claim": "Winter-to-spring inventory fall measures recovery",
        "reason": "Seasonalcomparison would be misleading withoutcontrols."
      }
    ]
  },
  "definitionReview": {
    "articleSha256": "18a0a35dade67e16f3a14c3bfedea1475150a2fc344aac24be80c79a9fe51023",
    "reviewer": "Codex root, retained quarterly comparison and direct primary-source review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T17:29:35.624821+00:00",
    "checks": [
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "opening",
          "comparison",
          "meaning"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "market"
        ],
        "locator": "Original June2first-quarter and September3second-quarter captures; live HTML",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "reason": "Same-quarter annual comparisons; months of inventory is not duration of listings; median days counts soldhomes only."
      },
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "rates",
          "province",
          "construction"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "boc",
          "bc",
          "cmhc"
        ],
        "locator": "Dated national and provincial releases",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "reason": "Context is not an asserted causal estimate or Kamloops construction series."
      },
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "forecast",
          "test"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "market"
        ],
        "locator": "Analyst conditional forecast",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "reason": "Two separatequarterly comparisons, no invented probability orprice target."
      }
    ]
  },
  "proseReview": {
    "articleSha256": "18a0a35dade67e16f3a14c3bfedea1475150a2fc344aac24be80c79a9fe51023",
    "reviewer": "Codex root, retained quarterly comparison and direct primary-source review",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T17:29:35.624821+00:00",
    "notes": "Read the complete prose and checked the opposite-direction comparisons against both original captures. Explained the practical implication without converting it into a causal claim or promising prices."
  },
  "gaps": []
}