# Aurora Business Park: Calgary's Tightening Market Hides Apartment Price Softness Calgary's September 2026 data shows a sales-to-new-listings ratio exceeding 60 percent, signaling a shift toward tighter conditions as inventories edge down. However, this aggregate tightening masks a significant divergence, with apartment prices remaining 13 percent below their 2024 peak and year-to-date sales in that segment down 26 percent. Published 2026-09-22. Evidence snapshot 2026-10-12. ## Key facts and reporting periods - Benchmark Price: 569800 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Calgary, AB. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg) - Benchmark Price: 744300 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Calgary, AB. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg) - Benchmark Price: 690500 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Calgary, AB. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg) - Benchmark Price: 415200 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Calgary, AB. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg) - Benchmark Price: 295400 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Calgary, AB. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg) - Benchmark Price: 508800 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Calgary, AB. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg) - Benchmark Price: 608400 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Calgary, AB. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg) - Benchmark Price: 569800 cad. Property type: All. Scope: Calgary, AB. Reporting date: 2026-10-10. [Source](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg/) ## Market summary Calgary's September 2026 data shows a sales-to-new-listings ratio exceeding 60 percent, signaling a shift toward tighter conditions as inventories edge down. However, this aggregate tightening masks a significant divergence, with apartment prices remaining 13 percent below their 2024 peak and year-to-date sales in that segment down 26 percent. ## Central finding Calgary's residential market is experiencing a bifurcated slowdown where falling supply is outpacing falling demand, pushing the sales-to-new-listings ratio above 60 percent in September while apartment prices remain 13 percent below their 2024 peak. This divergence suggests that while overall inventory tightens, specific segments like apartments face persistent oversupply and price erosion, creating distinct risk profiles for buyers and sellers across property types. Sources: [Calgary Real Estate Board – CREB® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg) [Calgary Real Estate Board – CREB® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg/) ## How the numbers connect Calgary's apartment-style unadjusted benchmark price has fallen approximately 13.5 percent from its August 2024 peak. Calculation: ($341,300 - $295,400) / $341,300 = 0.1345 or 13.45% decline from peak. Definitions: Apartment-style unadjusted benchmark price in Calgary, August 2026 versus August 2024 peak. Source: CREB statistics. Limit: This calculation establishes the magnitude of the apartment price correction in Calgary but does not establish a target-locality price outcome for Aurora Business Park. Sources: [Calgary Real Estate Board – CREB® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg) ## Tightening Inventory Masks Apartment Price Erosion In September 2026, Calgary's residential market saw the sales-to-new-listings ratio push above 60 percent, driven by 148 new listings and 94 sales, indicating a shift toward tighter conditions. This metric, measured at the city level, suggests that inventories are edging down compared with the previous month, a trend that typically supports price stability or modest gains. However, this aggregate figure obscures significant divergence within property types, particularly in the apartment segment where prices remain under pressure. While the overall market tightens, apartment-style homes in Calgary faced a different reality, with the unadjusted benchmark price at $295,400 in August, nearly 13 percent below the August 2024 peak of $341,300. Year-to-date sales in this segment have declined by 26 percent, reflecting persistent oversupply and reduced demand. For buyers and sellers in Aurora Business Park, these city-wide figures provide context but do not measure local outcomes; the contrast between the tightening general market and the softening apartment segment highlights the importance of property-specific analysis when making transaction decisions. Sources: [Calgary Real Estate Board – CREB® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg) [Calgary Real Estate Board – CREB® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg/) ## Stable Rates and Renewal Pressures Shape Borrower Capacity Financing conditions in Canada remain relatively stable, with the Bank of Canada holding its policy rate at 2.25 percent as of September 2, 2026. The lowest available five-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 4.24 percent on September 18, 2026, while two-year and three-year fixed rates remained below 4 percent. Despite this stability, rising five-year Government of Canada bond yields near 3.65 percent are exerting upward pressure on fixed rates, potentially pushing them higher in the coming weeks. These national financing conditions affect borrower capacity across all regions, including Calgary, but no target-scoped source establishes how these rates specifically impact transactions in Aurora Business Park. The upcoming renewal of pandemic-era five-year fixed-rate mortgages represents a significant challenge for borrowers, with an average 15 percent increase in monthly payments expected for approximately 12 percent of all outstanding Canadian mortgages. This renewal wave, combined with the current rate environment, may constrain demand in the resale market as households reassess their affordability. While these mechanisms operate at the national level, they influence the broader Calgary market by affecting the pool of qualified buyers, thereby indirectly shaping the competitive dynamics observed in the city's sales-to-new-listings ratio. Sources: [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/) ## Rental Supply and Infrastructure Funding Influence Housing Mix The composition of Calgary's housing supply is being shaped by both rental market dynamics and federal infrastructure funding. CMHC reported a 3.8 percent vacancy rate for purpose-built rentals in 2025, with an average two-bedroom rent of $1,603. CREB's chief economist noted that favourable rental conditions are slowing the transition to home ownership in lower price ranges, suggesting that the availability of affordable rental options is diverting potential buyers away from the resale market. This dynamic contributes to the observed pullback in sales activity, particularly in segments where rental alternatives are more accessible. Federal initiatives such as the Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund, which allocated $6 billion over 10 years starting in 2024, aim to accelerate the construction and upgrading of housing-enabling infrastructure. Communities with populations over 30,000 must implement zoning changes allowing four units as-of-right to qualify for this funding, a condition that encourages denser development patterns. While these policies operate at the national and municipal levels, they influence the long-term housing mix in Calgary by promoting multi-unit residential projects, which may help address the oversupply issues seen in the apartment segment by aligning new construction with actual demand patterns. Sources: [Edmonton Property Management Trends to Watch in 2026 | Calgary & Edmonton Property Management](https://www.powerproperties.net/blog/edmonton-property-management-trends-2026) [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html) ## The strongest counter-case The strongest counterforce to the tightening market narrative is the continued weakness in the apartment segment, where year-to-date sales have declined by 26 percent and prices sit nearly 13 percent below the August 2024 peak. Additionally, CREB's chief economist notes that favourable rental conditions are slowing the transition to ownership in lower price ranges, suggesting that demand may remain suppressed in entry-level segments despite the overall rise in the sales-to-new-listings ratio. Sources: [Calgary Real Estate Board – CREB® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg) [Calgary Real Estate Board – CREB® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg/) ## Living here Mapped amenities within Aurora Business Park include nine park points, one dog park point, eight transit stop points, and one grocery point. Specific named features include Nose Creek Park, West Nose Creek Park, and T&T Supermarket. Transit stops are located along 96 AV NE and Beddington DR. These counts represent recorded map presence only and do not establish walkability, access quality, connectivity, or buyer demand. Sources: [Nose Creek Park](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/287621085) ## The early signal The Sales to New Listings Ratio (SNLR) moving from 56 percent in August to above 60 percent in September 2026. How it reaches the market: When the ratio rises above 60 percent, it indicates that sales are absorbing listings faster than new ones are added, which mechanically reduces active inventory over subsequent months. This reduction in available stock then exerts upward pressure on prices or stabilizes them if demand remains constant. Typical lead time: The sales-to-new-listings ratio typically leads changes in active inventory levels by one to two months, as it reflects the immediate balance of new supply against absorption. Sources: [Calgary Real Estate Board – CREB® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg) [Calgary Real Estate Board – CREB® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg/) ## Next 3 months, through December 2026 Prices: flat. Flat to slightly rising for detached homes; falling for apartments. This is a city-wide scenario and not a measured result for Aurora Business Park. Why: The SNLR rising above 60 percent in September 2026 indicates that sales are outpacing new listings, which mechanically reduces active inventory. This tightening effect is expected to stabilize prices in the short term, particularly for detached homes which maintain higher benchmarks. Buyers: wait. Waiting allows buyers to observe whether the inventory reduction leads to price increases or simply stabilizes the market, avoiding potential overpayment in a tightening environment. Sellers: list now. Sellers should act now to capitalize on the current low inventory levels and high sales-to-new-listings ratio before potential seasonal cooling or increased competition from new listings. Watch: A drop in the Sales to New Listings Ratio below 55 percent would indicate a return to balanced or buyer-favorable conditions, overturning the expectation of price stability. Confidence: moderate. Sources: [Calgary Real Estate Board – CREB® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg) [Calgary Real Estate Board – CREB® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg/) ## Next 6 months, through March 2027 Prices: falling. Falling for apartments; flat for detached homes. This is a city-wide scenario and not a measured result for Aurora Business Park. Why: The persistence of high apartment inventory and the 26 percent year-to-date sales decline suggest that the apartment segment will continue to face downward price pressure. Meanwhile, the general market's move toward tighter conditions may support price stability in other segments. Buyers: either way. Buyers targeting apartments can benefit from continued price softening, while those seeking detached homes may find limited leverage as inventory tightens further. Sellers: wait. Sellers of apartments should wait for signs of inventory absorption, while sellers of detached homes may need to adjust pricing expectations as the market tightens. Watch: A significant increase in new apartment listings or a sharp rise in rental vacancies would signal a shift in the balance between renting and buying, potentially altering the price trajectory. Confidence: moderate. Sources: [Calgary Real Estate Board – CREB® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg) [Calgary Real Estate Board – CREB® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg/) ## Next 12 months, through September 2027 Prices: rising. Rising for all segments as the market normalizes. This is a city-wide scenario and not a measured result for Aurora Business Park. Why: Long-term trends show a gradual normalization of the market after the 2023-2024 peak. The combination of stable financing costs and moderate population growth supports a gradual recovery in prices, though the apartment segment may lag due to structural oversupply. Buyers: buy now. Buyers entering the market now can lock in current price levels before a potential long-term recovery, especially in the apartment segment where prices are significantly below peak. Sellers: either way. Sellers can choose to list now for quick sales or wait for the anticipated price recovery, depending on their urgency and property type. Watch: A sustained increase in mortgage rates or a significant economic downturn would reverse the expected price recovery, leading to further declines in both apartment and detached home prices. Confidence: low. Sources: [Calgary Real Estate Board – CREB® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg) [Calgary Real Estate Board – CREB® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg/) Assumptions: The Bank of Canada maintains its policy rate at 2.25 percent through the next quarter; No major new apartment developments are delivered in Calgary during the next six months; Rental vacancy rates remain stable near the 3.8 percent level reported for 2025. What would reverse this: A significant drop in interest rates or a surge in population growth could rapidly increase demand, reversing the current price softening in apartments and accelerating the overall market recovery beyond the projected flat trajectory. Sources: [Calgary Real Estate Board – CREB® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg) [Calgary Real Estate Board – CREB® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg/) [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates) ## Sources - [Calgary Real Estate Board – CREB® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Calgary, AB. - [Calgary Real Estate Board – CREB® | CREA Statistics](https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg/): Source reference date 20 September 2026 (observation period not stated). Scope: city, Calgary, AB; city. - [Best mortgage rates Canada | Compare Canada mortgage rates | Ratehub.ca](https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News | Canada's housing market poised for a fall rebound after a slow spring - Royal LePage Blog | Canadian Real Estate News](https://blog.royallepage.ca/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-fall-rebound-after-a-slow-spring/): First captured 20 September 2026; publication date unavailable. Scope: National, CA. - [Edmonton Property Management Trends to Watch in 2026 | Calgary & Edmonton Property Management](https://www.powerproperties.net/blog/edmonton-property-management-trends-2026): Observation reference period: 31 December 2025. Scope: city, Calgary, AB. - [Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund - Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada](https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/chif-fcil/index-eng.html): Source metadata date 18 September 2026; not a publication or event date. Scope: National, CA. - [Nose Creek Park](https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/287621085): date unavailable. Scope: neighbourhood. Prepared by Aurynge with AI-assisted research and writing. See /methodology for the evidence and publication policy.