{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "kind": "city-market-research-evidence",
  "publication": {
    "id": "city-ab-d96c263f-4e91-4053-9deb-c421043dddae-98921d6ea205",
    "batch": "edition-2026-09-07",
    "publicPath": "/markets/ab/ab-red-deer-stable-price-changing-sales-conditions-2026-09-07",
    "sourceArticleSha256": "98921d6ea2050e0e80216ca815a652c4c1a6b50b96de8279d07192a72e149503",
    "publishedAtUtc": "2026-09-08T01:38:04.954934Z",
    "editorialLanguageCheck": "passed"
  },
  "cityId": "d96c263f-4e91-4053-9deb-c421043dddae",
  "city": "Red Deer",
  "province": "AB",
  "asOfUtc": "2026-09-07T16:00:00.1724277+00:00",
  "thesis": "Red Deer\u2019s summer price average gives a calmer impression than its inventory and sales figures. Comparing the retained June report with the latest local release suggests that selling conditions have shifted before any clear citywide price signal.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "key": "june",
      "url": "https://albertarealtor.ca/hubfs/City%20of%20Red%20Deer%20-%200262%20-%20Public%5B27%5D.pdf?hsLang=en",
      "publisher": "Alberta Real Estate Association",
      "scopes": [
        "local"
      ],
      "dateNote": "June 2026 report. Both original PDF pages visually inspected. The raw extraction incorrectly describes the direction of supply in one summary; the original shows an increase.",
      "observationPeriod": "June 2026",
      "recordIds": [
        "021f060b-8b9c-4bcf-8d82-d87ffc69d883"
      ],
      "publicationDate": null,
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T17:39:22.571208+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "august",
      "url": "https://century21advantage.ca/red-deer-housing-market-update-2026",
      "publisher": "Century 21 Advantage",
      "scopes": [
        "local"
      ],
      "dateNote": "MLS residential data for Red Deer, current as of September 3, 2026. A brokerage compilation checked against the retained association June baseline; revisions and extraction scope may differ.",
      "observationPeriod": "August 2026",
      "recordIds": [],
      "publicationDate": "2026-09-03",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T17:39:22.571208+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "alberta",
      "url": "https://www.alberta.ca/housing-market-notes",
      "publisher": "Alberta Treasury Board and Finance",
      "scopes": [
        "provincial"
      ],
      "dateNote": "Retained first-quarter resale figures are seasonally adjusted.",
      "observationPeriod": "Q1 2026",
      "recordIds": [
        "d5069697-4330-454d-9a40-6ecd30e3aee3"
      ],
      "publicationDate": null,
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T17:39:22.571208+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "boc",
      "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/",
      "publisher": "Bank of Canada",
      "scopes": [
        "national"
      ],
      "dateNote": "September 2, 2026 decision. Policy rate and long-term borrowing yields are separate measures.",
      "observationPeriod": "September 2026",
      "recordIds": [],
      "publicationDate": "2026-09-02",
      "checkedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T17:39:22.571208+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "s0p0",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "sources": [
        "june",
        "august"
      ],
      "explanation": "Same city residential scope, different release providers and possible revisions disclosed. Mean prices are not constant-quality values."
    },
    {
      "id": "s0p1",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "kind": "calculation",
      "sources": [
        "june",
        "august"
      ],
      "explanation": "Reproducible two-release comparison; monthly unadjusted inventory/sales, not actual time to sell.",
      "calculation": {
        "formula": "((387 / 154) / (339 / 192) - 1) * 100",
        "inputs": {
          "juneInventory": 339,
          "juneSales": 192,
          "augustInventory": 387,
          "augustSales": 154
        },
        "result": 42.33
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "s0p2",
      "section": 0,
      "paragraph": 2,
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "sources": [
        "june",
        "august"
      ],
      "explanation": "June monthly flow distinct from first-half cumulative sales and average inventory; same-year seasonal confounding explicitly retained."
    },
    {
      "id": "s1p0",
      "section": 1,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "sources": [
        "alberta",
        "boc",
        "june",
        "august"
      ],
      "explanation": "Macro context supports a conditional liquidity argument, not a causal estimate or mortgage-rate forecast."
    },
    {
      "id": "s2p0",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 0,
      "kind": "forecast",
      "sources": [
        "june",
        "august",
        "boc"
      ],
      "explanation": "Conditional forecast and concrete local transaction exposure. No asserted existing price reductions or marketing-time trend."
    },
    {
      "id": "s2p1",
      "section": 2,
      "paragraph": 1,
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "sources": [
        "june",
        "august"
      ],
      "explanation": "Falsifier and missing denominator/asking-price fields documented."
    }
  ],
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "claimId": "s2p0",
      "horizon": "Autumn 2026 through early 2027",
      "assumptions": [
        "Inventory remains elevated relative to sales after the normal summer slowdown",
        "No sharp improvement in qualified demand"
      ],
      "upside": "Post-summer absorption reduces listings and restores faster sales.",
      "downside": "More competing listings extend marketing periods or increase negotiation.",
      "changeSignals": [
        "Several comparable monthly inventory and sales releases",
        "Original asking prices and listing withdrawals",
        "Matched selling durations"
      ],
      "confidence": "low",
      "confidenceReason": "The inventory-to-sales change is measured but seasonality and publisher differences prevent a precise structural estimate."
    }
  ],
  "datasetFindings": [
    {
      "reportFile": "analysis.json",
      "reportSha256": "d95e01310ae8287d0c7fb0ca1bcb4cddd7b3c549fe7e959231592d2022dc65d9",
      "claimIds": [
        "s0p1",
        "s0p2",
        "s1p0"
      ],
      "archiveContribution": "Uses the retained June monthly and year-to-date tables as a reproducible baseline, joins the retained provincial demand record, then checks a September brokerage release. The comparison is distinct from simply repeating the latest monthly headline."
    }
  ],
  "causalChains": [
    {
      "claimId": "s2p0",
      "sources": [
        "june",
        "august",
        "alberta",
        "boc"
      ],
      "mechanism": "Broader subdued demand and uncertain financing conditions can leave buyers more alternatives when local stock rises relative to turnover. Sellers may adjust timing and terms before a changing transaction mix produces a clear average-price trend.",
      "localExposure": "Red Deer households linking an existing-home sale to a new purchase.",
      "timeHorizon": "Through early 2027",
      "counterEvidence": "June-to-August comparisons are seasonal and the latest numbers are compiled by a different publisher. Stable averages do not prove constant property values or a future decline.",
      "forecastImplication": "Test selling conditions independently of the citywide average price."
    }
  ],
  "review": {
    "factual": true,
    "editorial": true,
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Codex Atlantic and North research agent",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T17:39:22.571208+00:00",
    "articleSha256": "98921d6ea2050e0e80216ca815a652c4c1a6b50b96de8279d07192a72e149503"
  },
  "insightReview": {
    "articleSha256": "98921d6ea2050e0e80216ca815a652c4c1a6b50b96de8279d07192a72e149503",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Codex Atlantic and North research agent",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T17:39:22.571208+00:00",
    "findings": [
      {
        "observationIds": [
          "june-stock-flow",
          "june-ytd",
          "provincial"
        ],
        "ordinaryInterpretation": "The nearly unchanged summer average price and strong June sales indicate unchanged selling conditions.",
        "additionalFinding": "The retained baseline exposes a larger change in stock relative to sales than in average prices, while its first-half table shows supply had already accumulated before the seasonal summer slowdown.",
        "archiveContribution": "Uses the retained June monthly and year-to-date tables as a reproducible baseline, joins the retained provincial demand record, then checks a September brokerage release. The comparison is distinct from simply repeating the latest monthly headline.",
        "localConsequence": "Owners coordinating a purchase and sale should distinguish possible sale proceeds from the reliability of an earlier selling timetable.",
        "counterEvidence": "June-to-August comparisons are seasonal and the latest numbers are compiled by a different publisher. Stable averages do not prove constant property values or a future decline.",
        "missingLinks": [
          "Subsequent same-series association releases",
          "Matched original asking price, selling duration and withdrawn listing data",
          "Seasonally adjusted local segment series"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "removedOrDemoted": [
      {
        "claim": "Red Deer property values were unchanged.",
        "reason": "Means are affected by the mix of sales."
      },
      {
        "claim": "Supply fell 2.9% in June.",
        "reason": "Raw extraction summary sign contradicts the visually inspected original, which says up."
      },
      {
        "claim": "The 42% shift is entirely structural.",
        "reason": "Seasonality and publisher differences cannot be removed with this packet."
      }
    ]
  },
  "definitionReview": {
    "articleSha256": "98921d6ea2050e0e80216ca815a652c4c1a6b50b96de8279d07192a72e149503",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Codex Atlantic and North research agent",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T17:39:22.571208+00:00",
    "checks": [
      {
        "locations": [
          "title",
          "description",
          "lead",
          "s0p0",
          "s0p1",
          "s0p2",
          "s1p0",
          "s2p0",
          "s2p1"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "june",
          "august"
        ],
        "locator": "Both original June PDF pages visually checked; September 3 brokerage August snapshot and 2026 summary",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "reason": "June 339/192 = 1.765625; August 387/154 = 2.512987; relative change 42.33%. Average price change -0.55% rounds to -0.6%. YTD 301 inventory is an average, not June stock. Source extraction falsely says supply decreased; PDF proves it increased. Seasonal and publisher differences explicitly limit inference."
      },
      {
        "claimIds": [
          "s1p0",
          "s2p0"
        ],
        "sources": [
          "alberta",
          "boc"
        ],
        "locator": "First-quarter resale row and September 2 policy decision",
        "outcome": "qualified",
        "reason": "No local mortgage quote or future policy path asserted."
      }
    ]
  },
  "proseReview": {
    "articleSha256": "98921d6ea2050e0e80216ca815a652c4c1a6b50b96de8279d07192a72e149503",
    "reviewer": "GPT-6 Astra, Codex Atlantic and North research agent",
    "reviewedAtUtc": "2026-09-07T17:39:22.571208+00:00",
    "notes": "Read all seven paragraphs continuously and recomputed inventory-to-sales and average-price comparisons. Removed causal overreach, clearly distinguished YTD average inventory, and retained the seasonal counterargument. Forecast selling conditions rather than a false precise price call. No first person or em dash."
  },
  "gaps": [
    "Subsequent same-series association releases",
    "Matched original asking price, selling duration and withdrawn listing data",
    "Seasonally adjusted local segment series"
  ],
  "retrievalCoverage": {
    "cityDiscoveryRows": 174,
    "municipalDomainRows": 102,
    "encodedPdfRows": 2,
    "currentBrokerageArchiveHistoryRows": 0,
    "qdrantBodyDiscoveryCompleted": true,
    "exhaustiveArchive": false
  }
}